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☡Evergrande Defaulted Into Bankruptcy☡

⚠️[ALERT]⚠️

China will not bailout Evergrande,... one of the world's largest corporations. There is a very large amount of foriegn debt that will go unpaid!!!

The stock markets are crashing fast before bell close. Future index is looking increasingly problematic!!!
 
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DarkNoon said:
When the dominos start to fall in China will likly be the day they attack Taiwan!... The first domino just fell...
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Rather logical assumption yes? @Obreid @DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @expat42451
A economic collapse or disparity would force China to act strong. In this case attack Taiwan...

Edit:
(You 4 have a rather individually unique insight to things. Why I tagged & asked you guys.)
 
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DarkNoon said:
When the dominos start to fall in China will likly be the day they attack Taiwan!...
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It wouldn't be the first time a country started a war due to domestic reasons.

Will they? Honestly, I don't know if that is enough of a catalyst in and of itself. Maybe it could apply psychological pressure and war may seem a viable option at the time when, if this hadn't happened China could think otherwise.

How's that for a solid "I don't know"?
 
Hey there. I go out of the house and look what you guys do...Drag Evergrande down :) Lets see.....

When I left home all the stock indices were +-50 points of about flat, BTC was at 68,991 the US$ cash index was 94.388 or so ....as of my posting the indices...DOW-240;S&P-38.54;NDQ -263 at the closing bell....Gold shows up $2.40 @1851.10 and BTC at exactly 65,000... the Dollar Cash Index DXY is 94.869 a pretty strong move for one day.......Our CPI m/m was reported today and it was forecast to be +.6 after the previous months +.4. It ended up +.9 which is a smack in the face, a bloody nose and some open fractures for the US consumer. Unemployment up 10K m/m at 267K as well. So-- We have currently the highest inflation in 31 years in the US. I dont know that I would attribute all of today's red blood spattered everywhere entirely on Evergrande. The fallout from this may not be that evident ---what is going to be interesting is to look for counterparty risks on their bonds. What to watch for those who like bloodshed is the Asia markets overnight, BTC and the Dollar night action as well as US futures. Another thing to atch on Forex is the China currency trades.......I really wish I had the sake concession for the Japanese exchange, those guys might need drinks during the Tokyo lunch session......I think as this goes forward, counterparties and things like pension funds which unwisely chased yield into the shall we say murky cesspool that is China come to tha surface yelling "WHARS MAH MUNEY" ....... we may also hear cries, explosions and agonizing screams from those who sold credit default swaps to these Evergrande bond yield chasers in the process and those credit default swap guys are really puckered about now. Going to be interesting to see tha Xi and whats up with bailout but I quite candidly doubt there will be any. I rather expect him to point to Evergrande et al ---they arent alone, the property binge has infected a number of others in the China cesspool.... but I rather expect him to point to this sturm und drung and say " see I really DO need to be God for Life cause I already have cracked down on the infection of Western Habits that has so damaged our pristine Chinese market"...... or words to that effect. As far as an imminent attack unless they are going to walk or swim across the straits I dont see it unless its all missiles and air power and someone once said that you gotta have boots on the ground to occupy territory.......so while I think Evergrande may well be part of the bloodletting I dont think its all of it. I would attribute more of it to the m/m CPI increase which is going to have some interesting reverberations in near future US treasury debt sales and the central bank is going to have to really think about increasing interest rates...which atypically kicks the teeth out of the stock market and derivatives as well..... The US $ move today was to me the most concerning of everything we have seen..... could it be people rotating out of the Chinese market or the Chinese currency into the US $ to position themselves to take advantage of a central bank rate increase in the US?? Could be . Could it be some sort of rotation ahead of imminent cross strait military action? Although it was a large move I dont see that. If I was seeing US Stock market futures down say -500 points (or more) right now I woudl be more concerned but at 6:40 PM DOW-22;S&P+-0;NDQ+3.25. So from my perspective I dont see anything for the day other than US inflation that alarming but thats just me. Lets watch Asia overnight......Saki anyone??
 
expat42451 said:
so while I think Evergrande may well be part of the bloodletting I dont think its all of it. I would attribute more of it to the m/m CPI increase
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Yes. I should rephrase. I don't think a attack on Taiwan is imminent. Just that once the dominos start to fall and China starts to look extremely weakened would be the point they lash out.

expat42451 said:
Could it be some sort of rotation ahead of imminent cross strait military action? Although it was a large move I dont see that. If I was seeing US Stock market futures down say -500 points (or more) right now I woudl be more concerned but at 6:40 PM DOW-22;S&P+-0;NDQ+3.25. So from my perspective I dont see anything for the day
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Yes. I don't see anything major occuring within the next 12/24 hours. But I do expect the markets to drop very fast and very steep once the bankruptcy goes through the courts.

expat42451 said:
Lets watch Asia overnight......Saki anyone??
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Indeed was thinking the same thing. Cheers🥃 As always thank you for your insight. Was informative and reassuring.
 
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DEFCON Warning System said:
It wouldn't be the first time a country started a war due to domestic reasons.

Will they? Honestly, I don't know if that is enough of a catalyst in and of itself. Maybe it could apply psychological pressure and war may seem a viable option at the time when, if this hadn't happened China could think otherwise.

How's that for a solid "I don't know"?
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It is said, "Go not to the elves for advice, for they will say both yes and no."

Rationally, China doesn't want to go toe-to-toe with the US and risk a nuclear exchange. We would get hurt, but they would lose everything, and we'd still have nukes left over.

But these are not rational times. The entire Eurasian continent from the EU to Taiwan is brimming over with problems stemming from Covid, supply chain, economics, immigration, and just general instability.

I've hypothesized this before: If I were Xi and Putin, I would coordinate two massive invasions into SE Ukraine and Taiwan to occur simultaneously, with the goal being to overwhelm and confuse Western response. I would also approach other players in the region, including Turkey, Iran, and North Korea, and see if they wanted to stir up smaller skirmishes at the same time to throw more confusion into the mix. The US is hated equally by pretty much all of them, so I could see them putting aside their own differences temporarily to do this.

Think about the possibility for a second: How would the US react if at 03:00 EST Russia moved on Ukraine, China moved on Taiwan, North Korea moved on South Korea, Iran moved on Israel, and Turkey moved on Iraq? I don't think we could handle it. We sure cannot take on both Russia and China in a conventional war on their front doorsteps. Would the US really go nuclear on Russia and China at the same time? I wouldn't, if I were POTUS. I wouldn't have a country left to run after all the missiles stopped falling.

I know I'm not the only one who is watching world events develop with a growing disquiet in my gut. The whole planet is on edge, and so am I. I've been at a solid personal DEFCON 4 since Russia moved all that military hardware to Ukraine's border this past spring and left it there.

But that's just me.
 
Well the world bank is working on their own crypto currency and they will then have no need to loan banks money and then the banks to the people. They want to eliminate the middle man.

In order for that to happen, everything has to go in the crapper. Can't say I expected any less with the tyrants back in charge.

China has so many problems right now on top of this, that they could easily lash out at Taiwan to just get more assets.

Who knows, the crap in Poland, Ukraine and Russia could all be a distraction for China.
 
RiffRaff said:
It is said, "Go not to the elves for advice, for they will say both yes and no."

Rationally, China doesn't want to go toe-to-toe with the US and risk a nuclear exchange. We would get hurt, but they would lose everything, and we'd still have nukes left over.

But these are not rational times. The entire Eurasian continent from the EU to Taiwan is brimming over with problems stemming from Covid, supply chain, economics, immigration, and just general instability.

I've hypothesized this before: If I were Xi and Putin, I would coordinate two massive invasions into SE Ukraine and Taiwan to occur simultaneously, with the goal being to overwhelm and confuse Western response. I would also approach other players in the region, including Turkey, Iran, and North Korea, and see if they wanted to stir up smaller skirmishes at the same time to throw more confusion into the mix. The US is hated equally by pretty much all of them, so I could see them putting aside their own differences temporarily to do this.

Think about the possibility for a second: How would the US react if at 03:00 EST Russia moved on Ukraine, China moved on Taiwan, North Korea moved on South Korea, Iran moved on Israel, and Turkey moved on Iraq? I don't think we could handle it. We sure cannot take on both Russia and China in a conventional war on their front doorsteps. Would the US really go nuclear on Russia and China at the same time? I wouldn't, if I were POTUS. I wouldn't have a country left to run after all the missiles stopped falling.

I know I'm not the only one who is watching world events develop with a growing disquiet in my gut. The whole planet is on edge, and so am I. I've been at a solid personal DEFCON 4 since Russia moved all that military hardware to Ukraine's border this past spring and left it there.

But that's just me.
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Been asking the same question of myself the last several weeks. So many flash points and rhetoric.
And all of them could remedied with cool heads and patients.
 
RiffRaff said:
If I were Xi and Putin, I would coordinate two massive invasions into SE Ukraine and Taiwan to occur simultaneously, with the goal being to overwhelm and confuse Western response.
Click to expand...
That's what I would do.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
It wouldn't be the first time a country started a war due to domestic reasons.

Will they? Honestly, I don't know if that is enough of a catalyst in and of itself. Maybe it could apply psychological pressure and war may seem a viable option at the time when, if this hadn't happened China could think otherwise.

How's that for a solid "I don't know"?
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It’s honest! And shared by me as well
 
Yingyang said:
Reply i said a couple of years ago Russia and China would work together. No-one saw it coming. 😒🙄
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We have know about it for many years. Its just the past 40 years China & Russia have been at odds.

Even with a common foe "the west" didn't seem likly as they both don't trust each other. In other words a alliance dead on arrival.

But it seems the US has pushed them beyond their differences and trust so now we are seeing increasing alarming collaborations between China & Russia...

They are still far from freinds and doubt they trust each other yet. Only a bond made out of inconvenience which never last long when the other side does not trust you.
 
DarkNoon said:
We have know about it for many years. Its just the past 40 years China & Russia have been at odds.

Even with a common foe "the west" didn't seem likly as they both don't trust each other. In other words a alliance dead on arrival.

But it seems the US has pushed them beyond their differences and trust so now we are seeing increasing alarming collaborations between China & Russia...

They are still far from freinds and doubt they trust each other yet. Only a bond made out of inconvenience which never last long when the other side does not trust you.
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Oh I never believed they trust each other, that plays out years after using each other to defeat their opponents. Back then I said eventually China would come in from behind on Russia. Anyway considering governments actions over pandemic nothing seems as scary now. Buggered if we do ,Buggered if we don't. On so many levels future in short term and long term looking bleak. 🙄🤬😒🤞👍
 
DarkNoon said:
The German company is still taking them to court for bankruptcy & the compay urged all investors to do the same to Evergrande and end it here and now.
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I want to stress here that even though Evergrande made 1 single payment doesn't mean they have not defaulted into bankruptcy.

The German company has stressed very clearly that they are going after Evergrande in court to make Evergrande declare bankruptcy regardless of that one mislealy downpayment. Because it has been made pretty clear Evergrande cannot and will not keep up with its debt.

In fact the German company is urging all investors to join them in this suit against Evergrande.
 
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