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Ukraine military events

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RiffRaff said:
The key is the parliament vote on the two separatist regions in the Donetsk region. If Russia recognizes them as legitimate governments, then that opens the door for the Russian military to be "invited in" by those regions, hence, it's not an "invasion." If I'm not mistaken, they used the exact same tactic on Crimea.
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What is more "worrying" is that if Russia recognizes the 2 separatists regions, and guarantees their independence, they have a CB against Ukraine, since Ukraine is at war with those region
 
If this really is verified, I just wanna know...WHAT in God's name is Putin smoking?! Like seriously, what is he on? WHY does he think this is a good idea when it is unanimously agreed upon that it's not? Who besides Russia and China thinks this they're going a good thing? I ask you. Why does Putin keep pushing this when everyone who is not Russia thinks it is a bad move? Does he really got nothing left to lose? Is he really THAT desperate?
 
RiffRaff said:
The key is the parliament vote on the two separatist regions in the Donetsk region. If Russia recognizes them as legitimate governments, then that opens the door for the Russian military to be "invited in" by those regions, hence, it's not an "invasion." If I'm not mistaken, they used the exact same tactic on Crimea.
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Correct, and Crimea was whole.

DPR and LPR are not whole and they claim all of the region, but occupy about half. I expect that they will immediately invite Russia in, then DPR and LPR will make a demand to Ukraine to leave Donbass immediately. When Ukraine refuses to leave, Putin will say "here, hold my beer!" (<--metaphorically speaking)



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Lincoln MFing Loud said:
I agree. Is any of this 100% verified? Are you ABSOLUTELY 100% POSITIVE this is certain? Or is this more guesswork?
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I can guarantee nothing since I'm not a decision maker. I think nobody can here. Therefore, lets consider this as my guesswork based on my observations and logic. Like others, I monitor Russian media (state and private, including Telegram channels and forums) and I see no imminent war propaganda. In general, Russian people are sure that Putin won't start a war first. And I think it's important for Putin. Russia will not be the aggressor. But they will protect their citizens in Donbass in a military way. That's why today Russian Duma voted for the resolution. It's obvious that Putin will sign it. He has no other way. The only question is when. My guesswork is that Russian diplomacy will push Ukraine to negotiate with Donbass and start a federalization. It's obvious that Ukraine will reject this, and Russia will wait for the next escalation in Donbass. Doesn't even have to be a major.
 
finance.yahoo.com

Russia sends hypersonic-armed fighter jets to Syria for naval drills - report

Russia has deployed MiG-31K fighter jets with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and long-range Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers to its air base in Syria for naval exercises, Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday, citing the defence ministry. The aircraft dispatched to Russia's Hmeimim air base...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1493622758663757828
https://twitter.com/x/status/1493622581001265152
https://twitter.com/x/status/1493622729836154882

Russian Duma asks Putin to recognize Ukrainian regions as independent:​

m.dw.com

Russian Duma asks Putin to recognize Donetsk, Luhansk – DW – 02/15/2022

Russian lawmakers have voted to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognize the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in Ukraine as independent nations.
m.dw.com m.dw.com

Videos show Russian units and missiles advancing toward Ukraine border:​

www.cnn.com

Videos show Russian units and missiles advancing toward Ukraine border

The build-up of Russian forces close to the Ukrainian border continues apace, with everything from submarines and amphibious landing ships in the Black Sea to short-range ballistic missiles, tanks and howitzers around Ukraine's northeastern edges.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

⬆️ (3/4)[REPORTS]
 
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Arch said:
Do you seriously believe this? Russia will not strike Ukraine neither tomorrow, nor day after. All this media hysteria looks like a cheap blockbuster from Bollywood. Isn't it obvious that Russia will not act like everybody expect? Would you launch an military operation if your enemy knows all about it? I highly doubt.

Do not misunderstand me, I share the opinion that Russia getting ready to forceful scenario, but I highly doubt that they will act first. I think that these days Russia will give Ukraine an opportunity to start negotiations with Donbass (that's why Duma voted for the resolution). If Ukraine will fail, Putin will sign the resolution of recognition of Donbass republics. If Ukraine will launch a military operation - Russia will respond. Russia has no reason to strike neither tomorrow, nor this week. However, I see that Russia expect a forceful scenario.
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They have been talking for years, Russia has one plan and when they attack tonight you will see! Russia doesn’t move all this to talk or have an exercise. Nobody has seen them move anything from anywhere yet they have been saying since last night, right as more troops and tanks were flowing in!

They have also launched cyber attacks and are jamming and spoofing the GPS systems!
 
I think it's possible. The stars are aligning for that sort of thing, with the recognition of the Republics being handed over to Putin, and the US intelligence indicating tommorow as being the start day for an operation.

I would be skeptical however that Putin is even going to recognize the Republics, generally what I gather from various analysts is that he's either not going to sign it right now or at all. Additionally, I'd expect a much wider and more destructive cyber attack before any operation, though a move into the Republics probably wouldn't require it.

Essentially, I think its too early to make an assessment about the next few days. Alot of information coming out of Russia seems to suggest they want to deescalate, or atleast keep talks going longer, though this could just be misdirection.

I will say, though, a simple move into the Republics isn't the worst outcome of this crisis. We will see if it happens and how far it goes if it does.
RiffRaff said:
A LOT of disinformation going on right now along with these cyberattacks. My assessment is we are in the opening stages of a Russian incursion into SE Ukraine under the guise of "assisting" the LPR and DPR.
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RiffRaff said:
A LOT of disinformation going on right now along with these cyberattacks. My assessment is we are in the opening stages of a Russian incursion into SE Ukraine under the guise of "assisting" the LPR and DPR.
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For starters and it’s going to get going fast.

Our own intelligence said exactly how this was going to start and the Russians have done just that by recognizing the Separatists republics.

Putin will sign the new law and the order to invade to secure the republics from the Ukrainian military he calls terrorist. They have already came out and said they foiled a Ukrainian terror attack there today!!

A lot of Ukrainian people in the north are really not taking this seriously enough with all the Russian lies. They had better be in their shelters cooking hotdogs and burgers by the fires before they can’t and have to seal it up 😆.

They might as well party in their bunkers until the rockets stop. If they are not drunk they are going to get shell shock! Hopefully the parents have gotten their young kids out and moved them to the far north west where it’s safe for now.
 
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