- Joined
- Oct 1, 2016
We can’t know the mind of any of these leaders very well.
In many cases some do not even known their own mind. There doesn’t seem to be much agreement from negotiations, some yes, but there are significant sticking points.
Putin has to have significant win, Ukraine demands their nation back and reparations (never happen).
The west is satisfied for now just feeding aid and weapons to Ukraine.
So no one will give and escalation will follow. Or the war will follow with a back and forth of battle lines.
Russia’s armor has been neutered with the NLAW’s. Their airforce especially their ground assault helos are also neutered as well.
This isn’t a condemnation of Russian equipment or even soldiers.
It’s new weapons to confront old tactics.
The US or any NATO nation would be in a fight for their lives against these types of shoulder fired weapons as well.
Russia has missiles and ability to level cities and some troop concentrations.
But Ukrainians army is mostly dispersed and mobile so they are only consistently able to pound on civilian populations.
This wears down Ukrainians but it also Inflames them.
Russian artillery fire doesn’t seem to be coordinated and accurate enough to be brought to bare on Ukrainian forces so they are left to grind civilian and infrastructure as well.
Ukraine does not have the armor or arty to pound the Russian lines and break them in an attack.
They can drone convoys and disrupt them but they can’t saturation bomb Russian forces in a way that causes a total collapse of a line.
So this will turn in to a WW1 type war with infantry battles of strike and counter strike.
With out trained coordinated arty and air to ground attacks the war now will simply grind on.
NATO could use conventional forces to smash Russian military concentrations and the Russians could be driven back rather quickly.
But of course how will this be responded to, that’s what everybody’s worried about now.
I see it happening eventually though, nato will get more involved. Targeted cruise missile attacks, reapers with hellfire missiles. But how soon I don’t know.
Russia is in a bind it’s going to a bloody and unpopular war for them and unless the Ukraine people’s spirit just collapses. Russia will come away with very little gains compared to the cost. A wrecked economy and depleted and demoralized military.
NATO has to walk a very fine line as well. How long can they supply aid but not engage with their forces. While reports of Ukrainian cities being leveled continue to roll in and refugees flee to the west. (ever notice that refugees always flow to the west) we’re such pricks.
Should coulda kept the aid flowing to them in the first part of 2021 and brought them in to NATO before the invasion.
Wars are as much about determination of will and the balls to show it as military strength.
The Ukrainians have proved that but will they be willing or able to suffer the generational loses that the Vietnamese did?
Now we are fighting a war by proxy and by “default” treating Ukraine like a nato nation without sharing any of the direct risk or losses. The longer that continues the little moral authority that nato has will dissipate.
Tough choices ahead.
In many cases some do not even known their own mind. There doesn’t seem to be much agreement from negotiations, some yes, but there are significant sticking points.
Putin has to have significant win, Ukraine demands their nation back and reparations (never happen).
The west is satisfied for now just feeding aid and weapons to Ukraine.
So no one will give and escalation will follow. Or the war will follow with a back and forth of battle lines.
Russia’s armor has been neutered with the NLAW’s. Their airforce especially their ground assault helos are also neutered as well.
This isn’t a condemnation of Russian equipment or even soldiers.
It’s new weapons to confront old tactics.
The US or any NATO nation would be in a fight for their lives against these types of shoulder fired weapons as well.
Russia has missiles and ability to level cities and some troop concentrations.
But Ukrainians army is mostly dispersed and mobile so they are only consistently able to pound on civilian populations.
This wears down Ukrainians but it also Inflames them.
Russian artillery fire doesn’t seem to be coordinated and accurate enough to be brought to bare on Ukrainian forces so they are left to grind civilian and infrastructure as well.
Ukraine does not have the armor or arty to pound the Russian lines and break them in an attack.
They can drone convoys and disrupt them but they can’t saturation bomb Russian forces in a way that causes a total collapse of a line.
So this will turn in to a WW1 type war with infantry battles of strike and counter strike.
With out trained coordinated arty and air to ground attacks the war now will simply grind on.
NATO could use conventional forces to smash Russian military concentrations and the Russians could be driven back rather quickly.
But of course how will this be responded to, that’s what everybody’s worried about now.
I see it happening eventually though, nato will get more involved. Targeted cruise missile attacks, reapers with hellfire missiles. But how soon I don’t know.
Russia is in a bind it’s going to a bloody and unpopular war for them and unless the Ukraine people’s spirit just collapses. Russia will come away with very little gains compared to the cost. A wrecked economy and depleted and demoralized military.
NATO has to walk a very fine line as well. How long can they supply aid but not engage with their forces. While reports of Ukrainian cities being leveled continue to roll in and refugees flee to the west. (ever notice that refugees always flow to the west) we’re such pricks.
Should coulda kept the aid flowing to them in the first part of 2021 and brought them in to NATO before the invasion.
Wars are as much about determination of will and the balls to show it as military strength.
The Ukrainians have proved that but will they be willing or able to suffer the generational loses that the Vietnamese did?
Now we are fighting a war by proxy and by “default” treating Ukraine like a nato nation without sharing any of the direct risk or losses. The longer that continues the little moral authority that nato has will dissipate.
Tough choices ahead.
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