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UA-RU | May 1st-20th | DISCUSSIONS

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TCharley300 said:
I'm not complaining, but I thought this section was "supposed to be" for Russia Ukraine discussions. Since yesterday, this certainly got off track.
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Yes... I have removed all off topic convo. Sorry I was sleeping. If anyone wishes to discuss the 2016 elections (yawn) then please make your own thread for it and discuss it there.
 
You have to live in a nuclear bunker to survive these thermobaric airbursts.
People that hide in simple tunnels will get their lungs sucked out of their chest. @william
 
Onoya said:
Unless i'm wrong, the red line that could make Nato to directly intervene is chimical, biological or nuclear weapon being used ( or conventionnal weapon used against a NATO country )
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Just mobilize not intervene. You know, start tooling up production lines, calling up the reserves, massive deployment of troops and equipment more then they already have. Things like that.
 
DucknCover said:
You have to live in a nuclear bunker to survive these thermobaric airbursts.
People that hide in simple tunnels will get their lungs sucked out of their chest. @william
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I know, that is why I'm afraid that chemical weapons might be used to smoke them out if they're in deep.
 
expat42451 said:
Hi Onoya any links to the French sources you mentioned please?? Neither The Local..fr nor France 24 had anything on this--
Thanks
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https://www.lindependant.fr/2022/05...mplace-la-rumeur-qui-enfle-renforcee-par-une- source-interne-du-kremlin-10274878.php
https://www.ladepeche.fr/2022/05/04...un-cancer-des-sources-affirment-quil-va-ceder -temporairement-le-pouvoir-10275407.php
https://www.ladepeche.fr/2022/05/04...i-est-nikolai-patrushev-le-faucon-du-kremlin- qui-pourrait-remplacer-le-president- russe-10275601.php
https://www.tf1info.fr/politique/au...das-poutine-bientot-opere-d-un-cancer-2218609 .html

-- View of France, still remains only rumors -- the French articles just repeating other English articles..


Rumors of Putin has cancer and emergency surgery are not new, here is an article from 2020
www.closermag.fr

Vladimir Poutine atteint d'un cancer et opéré d'urgence en secret : les accusations inquiétantes autour de son état de santé

A en croire certaines sources, l'état de santé de Vladimir Poutine serait très préoccupant. Le président de la Russie aurait été opéré d'un cancer il y a quelques mois.
www.closermag.fr www.closermag.fr
 
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william said:
Just mobilize not intervene. You know, start tooling up production lines, calling up the reserves, massive deployment of troops and equipment more then they already have. Things like that.
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my bad, i misunderstood you. i guess they could, they already deployed more troops in Poland etc... so Russia doing general mobilization would provoke Nato to react
 
william said:
If russia orders a full mobilization on May 9 will Nato respond in kind?
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I noticed you asked this already, though in a different thread.

We will have to get back to you on this question. The DWS staff are currently working on (together) on each question everyone asked us in the "Ask DWS: Ukraine War". The thread is now locked though we have taken all the questions we can now before Director makes the video for all the answers to your questions.
 
DarkNoon said:
I noticed you asked this already, though in a different thread.

We will have to get back to you on this question. The DWS staff are currently working on (together) on each question everyone asked us in the "Ask DWS: Ukraine War". The thread is now locked though we have taken all the questions we can now before Director makes the video for all the answers to your questions.
Click to expand...
NATO has already mobilized short of short stringing a Marine expeditionary unit to the Baltic’s.
The 82AB is in Poland and and Romania. Advance command control intel units for a MEU are in the Baltic’s.
Eucom southern already had a rapid projection force in Romania. This does not take into account what other nato nations have deployed in the east. Which they are as well.

Conventionally at this stage this is likely more than enough coupled with Ukrainian forces to halt and push back Russia lines inside Ukraine. Air superiority would likely be achieved fairly quickly.

Absolutely Their would be nato fatality and loses. I’m not painting some cake walk here.
We do not want to go there agreed but conventionally this is where we’re at.
Russia’s ballistic and cruise missiles are the hairy bugger. Extensive strikes inside russsia would have to be carried out to bring these to an end and this would be very touchy politically.
Or wmd are used.
I still do not see a high probability Russia will use them. It would be the end of Russia as a unified nation.
It would be bad everywhere else of course but it would be the end of Russia as a federation.
Kazakhstan Chechnya Uzbek they would all take the back door out of the house and begin looking for new alliances.
Please note; I do not mean this as a negative critique of Russia as a nation. It’s just human nature. When the whole is mortally damaged and you are still intact enough to cut a new deal or alliance that is what your going to do.
If a similar thing where to happen to the US the same process would play out. East coast would be making deals with the EU the west China or Mexico. Just the dynamics of a collapsing empire.

I don’t want to see Russian federation collapse anymore than see nukes fly.
 
william said:
If russia orders a full mobilization on May 9 will Nato respond in kind?
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there aren't any reasons to declare a full mobilization on May 9 just because is May 9. Russia has already taken some measures in this direction: a lot of reservists have been called to arms and the conscripts of the last year haven't been dismissed. Even in this way, Russia has a large capability of mobilization. Hence, I don't think that Russia is about to declare a full mobilization and, in the current situation, it doesn't need that: it's already winning and there are a lot riserves in the rear that have to be still organized in order to make the 3° part of the operations, that it will likely be a deep breakthrough on the Donbass front, inside Ukraine, toward the West, after the current phase of attrition and artilley heavy shelling is finished. Furtheremore, a full mobilization will surely alarm the neighboring NATO Coutries, that will surely mobilize in turn: Russia doesn't want that.
But, if Poland intervenes in Ukraine - and it seems likely that it cound happen - I can't imagine the developments of the events. But one thing is pretty sure: if, for some reasons, Russia declares a full mobilization, a large war will be almost sure, because a full mobilization is something very serious.
 
Onoya said:
Unless i'm wrong, the red line that could make Nato to directly intervene is chimical, biological or nuclear weapon being used ( or conventionnal weapon used against a NATO country )
Click to expand...

this is a "relative" red line IMHO. NATO has to put a "red line", in order to make understood that it's not suffering passively the events. In short words: NATO is not doing someting yet, not because it can't or it doesn't want, but because red lines aren't crossed yet. But we have to see if NATO will actually do something if a tactical nuke will be used, even if that it is unlikely to happen, at least until the war is between Russia and Ukraine. What NATO could do in that case? To nuke Russia? However, if NATO wants to do something, it doesn't really need a "red line": it is enough that Zelesky formally asks help to Poland. In this way NATO troops can more discreetly enter Ukraine with a better reason.
 
Obreid said:
NATO has already mobilized short of short stringing a Marine expeditionary unit to the Baltic’s.
The 82AB is in Poland and and Romania. Advance command control intel units for a MEU are in the Baltic’s.
Eucom southern already had a rapid projection force in Romania. This does not take into account what other nato nations have deployed in the east. Which they are as well.

Conventionally at this stage this is likely more than enough coupled with Ukrainian forces to halt and push back Russia lines inside Ukraine. Air superiority would likely be achieved fairly quickly.

Absolutely Their would be nato fatality and loses. I’m not painting some cake walk here.
We do not want to go there agreed but conventionally this is where we’re at.
Russia’s ballistic and cruise missiles are the hairy bugger. Extensive strikes inside russsia would have to be carried out to bring these to an end and this would be very touchy politically.
Or wmd are used.
I still do not see a high probability Russia will use them. It would be the end of Russia as a unified nation.
It would be bad everywhere else of course but it would be the end of Russia as a federation.
Kazakhstan Chechnya Uzbek they would all take the back door out of the house and begin looking for new alliances.
Please note; I do not mean this as a negative critique of Russia as a nation. It’s just human nature. When the whole is mortally damaged and you are still intact enough to cut a new deal or alliance that is what your going to do.
If a similar thing where to happen to the US the same process would play out. East coast would be making deals with the EU the west China or Mexico. Just the dynamics of a collapsing empire.

I don’t want to see Russian federation collapse anymore than see nukes fly.
Click to expand...
A fraction of the 82AB is in Poland, maybe a company or batallion-sized element. The entire division would be a massive deployment requiring support troops and C&C assets.
 
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