UA-RU-NATO | DISCUSSIONS (Closed)

[Dissident Elephant]

Over the past year, the pendulum has swung from “don’t push Russia or they’ll use nukes,” to “keep pushing them, because they’ve let us cross every red line with impunity.” We’re risking miscalculation.

Mind, I’m all for Ukraine taking back every inch of their soil, including Crimea. But at some point Putin will have to decide to either accept defeat or go nuclear. Will Putin resign the game or flip the table?

 

[Erecon]

Over the past year, the pendulum has swung from “don’t push Russia or they’ll use nukes,” to “keep pushing them, because they’ve let us cross every red line with impunity.” We’re risking miscalculation.

Mind, I’m all for Ukraine taking back every inch of their soil, including Crimea. But at some point Putin will have to decide to either accept defeat or go nuclear. Will Putin resign the game or flip the table?

Remmember who crossed the line first and keept pushing them. But both parties can slowly back off and return to status quo. ( both sides will suffer internal conflicts over it cause of hardliners - but I hope logic will prevail )

 

[Unidentified]

Remmember who crossed the line first and keept pushing them. But both parties can slowly back off and return to status quo. ( both sides will suffer internal conflicts over it cause of hardliners - but I hope logic will prevail )

If I were Ukraine and Russia pulled out, even gave back Crimea and other territory taken, nothing would ever get me back to status quo. Russia has stolen, raped, murdered, tortured, destroyed, and stolen children from Ukraine. Russia wants to wipe Ukraine from the world and everyone's memory.

Eye for an eye. I would terrorize Russia for generations to come. Unlike Russia, I would not seek to harm civilians but I would damage anddestroy military, economic, industrial, governmental, infastructure,and agriculture until I had forgotten, if ever, what brutality Russiaserved on my fellow Ukrainians. I don't think I could ever have a relationship with Russia again even if they turned to a new form of government, rebuilt my country, and tried to make restitution.

 

[Unidentified]

By the way, where are Ukraine's nuclear weapons? Ukraine was the third-largest nuclear power in the world at one time. The United States of America, the United Kingdom, and Russia guaranteed Ukraine's security in a 1994 agreement, the Budapest Memorandum. The weapons should be given back.

 

[Saguenay]

By the way, where are Ukraine's nuclear weapons? Ukraine was the third-largest nuclear power in the world at one time. The United States of America, the United Kingdom, and Russia guaranteed Ukraine's security in a 1994 agreement, the Budapest Memorandum. The weapons should be given back.

Ukraine handed over all nuclear weapons to Russia with the agreement of the US and all of the West

 

[Unidentified]

Ukraine handed over all nuclear weapons to Russia with the agreement of the US and all of the West

Well, they should have been split between the parties. What was Ukraine thinking? Countries are seeking nuclear weapons and they are giving them up on other people's word! You can't trust no one these days.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Mind, I’m all for Ukraine taking back every inch of their soil, including Crimea. But at some point Putin will have to decide to either accept defeat or go nuclear. Will Putin resign the game or flip the table?

This is something we are constantly evaluating.

 

[Peace]

This is something we are constantly evaluating.

I was wondering when the US flips the table from losing on all fronts! No matter the outcome of this our future generations will be destitute and looked down upon if not hunted by most of the world. Also, anyone hoping to use this site ever as a warning site should understand you will never get one from here. It will still be defon 5 as missile are exploding!!!

 

[Yingyang]

I was wondering when the US flips the table from losing on all fronts! No matter the outcome of this our future generations will be destitute and looked down upon if not hunted by most of the world. Also, anyone hoping to use this site ever as a warning site should understand you will never get one from here. It will still be defon 5 as missile are exploding!!!

Please elaborate on both subjects? I'd like a clearer understanding of both comments stated above?

 

[Peace]

Please elaborate on both subjects? I'd like a clearer understanding of both comments stated above?

The dollar is losing its hegemony as the world turns away from it. The EU is de-industrializing and the G7 as the Bricks will over next few years cause massive amounts of dollar to find their way home causing hyper-inflation. The Global South will seek damages and want war-crime tribunals for western troops and politicians to be held accountable.

The US/NATO cant fight against Russia and China and win and they know this. War is coming and the question is when the west starts losing ships, bases and hundreds of thousands of troops, if the US will drop a Nuclear bomb to slow the destruction.

 

[Yingyang]

The dollar is losing its hegemony as the world turns away from it. The EU is de-industrializing and the G7 as the Bricks will over next few years cause massive amounts of dollar to find their way home causing hyper-inflation. The Global South will seek damages and want war-crime tribunals for western troops and politicians to be held accountable.

The US/NATO cant fight against Russia and China and win and they know this. War is coming and the question is when the west starts losing ships, bases and hundreds of thousands of troops, if the US will drop a Nuclear bomb to slow the destruction.

And your statement on def 5 when nukes launch?

 

[Torch]

there are always times when ambiguity is not the proper course of action.


This is why I’ve been so adamant about refuting the posturing of Russia to try and paint this as a defensive war.

I know there are a great many who do not appreciate the actions of the US.
I am one of them from time to time.
However if you go back to the end of WW2 to the Breton Woods agreement. At the end of the war the US literally held ALL the cards. Europe and much of Asia as well as Russia was destroyed. While the population and infrastructure of the US was untouched and running on all cylinders.

What to do what to do?
The response was free trade for all and we’ll secure the lines of transportation, while guaranteeing safe free trade for all nations with little to no tariffs on imports to the US.
Plus we’ll pony up the money to help finance Europe and Asia rebuild.
IF everyone simply agrees to get along and play nice.

And it worked! Except for this 200 year old hard on Russia has regarding their perceived place in the world.
Imagine if Russia had simply said sure well sign on and play nice with everyone and respect boarders and other nations sovereignty governments and trade chooses.
Imagine what Russia would look like today in light of what Europe and Asia have been able to transform into.
It’s mind boggling.

But here we are still arguing about who has bigger balls?

Very well presented. Kudos.

 

[Deleted account]

Over the past year, the pendulum has swung from “don’t push Russia or they’ll use nukes,” to “keep pushing them, because they’ve let us cross every red line with impunity.” We’re risking miscalculation.

Mind, I’m all for Ukraine taking back every inch of their soil, including Crimea. But at some point Putin will have to decide to either accept defeat or go nuclear. Will Putin resign the game or flip the table?

Thing is, it's not that easy - in a very practical sense - to "go nuclear". Nukes are not an "I win" button for Putin. In fact, you could perhaps argue that nukes are kind of a crappy weapon - at least when you evaluate their potential as a tool which allows you to meet your political objectives.

Given the massive frontage in the RU/UA conflict, throwing a tactical nuke at any particular target would actually do little to alter the balance of power. Russia would need to use dozens, if not hundreds of tactical nukes to inflict a decisive defeat upon the Ukrainian army. In doing so, it would need to expend a great deal of its remaining delivery systems (note that the Ukrainian air defence capabilities are quite formidable by now, and Russian military planners would need to account for the fact that a good portion of the incoming missiles might get shot down - necessitating significant overkill). Of course - if any of the missiles turns out to be a dud, or is shot down, then hey, Ukraine now has nuclear warheads of its own!

Note also that a nuclear barrage - if it's meant to produce strategic outcomes rather than simply score PR points for Putin - would produce a lot of fallout which would affect Russian-held areas, and we haven't even begun to contemplate the geopolitcal fallout of such circumstances. If you believe the US administration, they apparently "made it clear" to Putin what would happen if Russia were to go nuclear in Ukraine. While I'm not aware of any leaks related thereto, I don't think the US would stand idly by, and there's good reason to suspect that a direct military conflict between the US and Russia would ensue. This is a fight that Russia, given its present circumstances, could never hope to win - and could perhaps only "draw" by opting for a strategic nuclear exchange with the US. Clearly someone at the Kremlin realizes all this.

At this point there's little reason to believe that nuclear war is regarded as a desirable scenario among the Russian leadership.

 

[Torch]

If I were Ukraine and Russia pulled out, even gave back Crimea and other territory taken, nothing would ever get me back to status quo. Russia has stolen, raped, murdered, tortured, destroyed, and stolen children from Ukraine. Russia wants to wipe Ukraine from the world and everyone's memory.

Eye for an eye. I would terrorize Russia for generations to come. Unlike Russia, I would not seek to harm civilians but I would damage anddestroy military, economic, industrial, governmental, infastructure,and agriculture until I had forgotten, if ever, what brutality Russiaserved on my fellow Ukrainians. I don't think I could ever have a relationship with Russia again even if they turned to a new form of government, rebuilt my country, and tried to make restitution.

I feel the same way, but at some point wars must end. I believe most people on both sides knows when a war goes from Defensive to Punitive. While punitive wars are Legal they rarely turn out well. Lets kill the shit out of Russian invaders and even those supporting the war in Russia (primarily airbases and assembly areas). Once they leave every inch of Ukraine, they should have a short period to repatriate all the kidnapped children and the LIVING bodies of everyone involved in these crimes. If they fail then punitive attacks can commence. (IMO they will never willingly comply so you will get your wish to continue killing Russians)
My 2¢

 

[Publius]

The dollar is losing its hegemony as the world turns away from it. The EU is de-industrializing and the G7 as the Bricks will over next few years cause massive amounts of dollar to find their way home causing hyper-inflation. The Global South will seek damages and want war-crime tribunals for western troops and politicians to be held accountable.

The US/NATO cant fight against Russia and China and win and they know this. War is coming and the question is when the west starts losing ships, bases and hundreds of thousands of troops, if the US will drop a Nuclear bomb to slow the destruction.

that’s quite a diatribe of assumptions there. Would you care to back them up with some examples.
You say the US and NATO can’t fight China and Russia. Well what help exactly is Russia going to be. They can’t fight Ukraine alone and win. And again where is china going to manifest this military power. They have one foreign navel port that could support their carrier outside of China.

I don’t disagree with you that the US has done some crappy or unwise things in the past. But go easy on the assumptions that the worst case scenario is always right around the corner.
Couple of realities
Most foreign debt is held by US Ally’s sans china who isn’t the largest debt holder. Belgum and UK together hold more than Chana.
The dollar ended 2022 at all time high and only lowered in 23 because of the FED’s actions on interest rates to curb inflation. It is still at record highs.
Russias gains in strength of the ruble last summer were because of energy revenues spikes. Those are gone this year.

The thing is there are no white Knights or Noble kings who always Carry out their statecraft in just and harmonious actions. There is conflict and competition and negotiations and maneuvering - always. It’s always a choice between the lesser of two evils. Or at the minimum them or us.

As far as Bricks, well I suppose we’ll see it might make some headway. But the reserve currency is mostly about one thing ease of payment settlements of foreign trade.
Do you actually see Europe, Japan, or S Korea actually no longer accepting USD in payment?
But I doubt their is any real black-swan event out their except for some asymmetric attack on the grid or something similar. Which in that case we’re talking WW3. Do you have any indications china or Russia is willing to risk WW3 right now.
Cui bono? no one does.

Who knows in a future world there might be room for two reserve currency’s.

 

[Totality 🇺🇦 🇮🇱]

The dollar is losing its hegemony

Funny. When the value of the dollar has only been on the up raising in value very considerably/steadily and China/Russia currency on the down and out. someone clearly doesn't care about the facts or numbers in reality.

 

[Publius]

Remmember who crossed the line first and keept pushing them. But both parties can slowly back off and return to status quo. ( both sides will suffer internal conflicts over it cause of hardliners - but I hope logic will prevail )

Just exactly who did cross the line first?

 

[Erecon]

Well for starters, Ukraine or US didnt invade Russia ( or any other nation after 1945 ) I dont know if that is answer enough? Or are you going to point the finger at the USSRs fall?

 

[Publius]

Well for starters, Ukraine or US didnt invade Russia ( or any other nation after 1945 ) I dont know if that is answer enough? Or are you going to point the finger at the USSRs fall?

Well I dont believe Ukraine has as an independent nation invaded anyone.
And I have already acknowledge the US has enacted some policies and actions I fervently disagreed with. I’m on record with that.

But this is not just about the US and Russia as much as some would like it to make about that.
This is about Russias actions now against Ukraine. It is about the majority of the Eastern European NATO members reaction and response towards Russias invasion.
So yeah - there you go

 

[es7129]

that’s quite a diatribe of assumptions there. Would you care to back them up with some examples.
You say the US and NATO can’t fight China and Russia. Well what help exactly is Russia going to be. They can’t fight Ukraine alone and win. And again where is china going to manifest this military power. They have one foreign navel port that could support their carrier outside of China.

I don’t disagree with you that the US has done some crappy or unwise things in the past. But go easy on the assumptions that the worst case scenario is always right around the corner.
Couple of realities
Most foreign debt is held by US Ally’s sans china who isn’t the largest debt holder. Belgum and UK together hold more than Chana.
The dollar ended 2022 at all time high and only lowered in 23 because of the FED’s actions on interest rates to curb inflation. It is still at record highs.
Russias gains in strength of the ruble last summer were because of energy revenues spikes. Those are gone this year.

The thing is there are no white Knights or Noble kings who always Carry out their statecraft in just and harmonious actions. There is conflict and competition and negotiations and maneuvering - always. It’s always a choice between the lesser of two evils. Or at the minimum them or us.

As far as Bricks, well I suppose we’ll see it might make some headway. But the reserve currency is mostly about one thing ease of payment settlements of foreign trade.
Do you actually see Europe, Japan, or S Korea actually no longer accepting USD in payment?
But I doubt their is any real black-swan event out their except for some asymmetric attack on the grid or something similar. Which in that case we’re talking WW3. Do you have any indications china or Russia is willing to risk WW3 right now.
Cui bono? no one does.

Who knows in a future world there might be room for two reserve currency’s.

It should also be noted the US debt owed to the Chinese is essentially a wash at this point. They owe the US and US citizens close to a trillion dollars from WW2.