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Philippines & China Confrontation In South China Sea

Swedish defense chief says actions against Philippines in South China Sea threaten global security:
MANILA, Philippines — Sweden’s defense chief has expressed alarm over Beijing’s repeated dangerous maneuvers against Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, saying such actions threaten global security, undermine stability and underscore the need to invest “for our security and freedom.”
Defense Minister Pål Jonson spoke Thursday night in a diplomatic reception in Manila for Sweden’s national day after meeting his Philippine counterpart, Gilberto Teodoro Jr., on expanding defense relations. Sweden is one of the possible sources of supersonic fighter jets that the Philippines plans to acquire as its military shifts focus from decades of fighting communist and Muslim insurgencies to territorial defense.
“Let me express my deep concern on the repeated dangerous maneuvers against Philippines vessels that have been taking place in the West Philippine Sea and the South China Sea,” Jonson said. He did not mention China in his speech but drew applause from an audience that included top Philippine military and security officials and Western and Asian diplomats.
 

New maritime rules issued by China that allow its coastguard to detain foreigners for trespassing in the disputed South China Sea have taken effect – but their international legitimacy is being questioned by neighbouring countries.
From Saturday, China’s coastguard can detain foreigners “suspected of violating management of border entry and exit”, according to the new regulations published online. Detention is allowed for up to 60 days in “complicated cases”, they say. “Foreign ships that have illegally entered China’s territorial waters and the adjacent waters may be detained.”
 
I dont see how China would implement it, unless they begin to shoot each other.
Keyword is trespass. so long as ships radio in and phrase their intentions to pass through reasonably diplomatically, it is a given to ok it. I presume that the US Navy does this?
 
And what are they going to do about it? Nothing.
I know right, nada. Maybe ram a ship? Hoze another ship? 😂 What a clown show. China won't do anything because they know US would wipe the floor with their navy if they in a legitimate military manner attack The Philippines.
 
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I know right, nada. Maybe ram a ship? Hoze another ship? 😂 What a clown show. China won't do anything because they know US would wipe the floor with their navy if they in a legitimate military manner attack The Philippines.
Maybe, but I wouldn't be in any hurry to put it to the test, the result however it turned out would leave quite a mess to wipe up.
 
Keyword is trespass. so long as ships radio in and phrase their intentions to pass through reasonably diplomatically, it is a given to ok it. I presume that the US Navy does this?
"In July 2016, an arbitration tribunal constituted under Annex VII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) ruled against the PRC's maritime claims in the South China Sea Arbitration. The tribunal did not rule on the ownership of the islands or delimit maritime boundaries. " There is no trespassing. They are trying to do a "Berlin blockade" on water? Good luck China :rolleyes:
 
Keyword is trespass. so long as ships radio in and phrase their intentions to pass through reasonably diplomatically, it is a given to ok it. I presume that the US Navy does this?
And that right there is the whole point.
Who’s the big dog that everyone has to report to and get a “by your leave”.

The entirety of the problem with this is that I do not believe China in its current posture is trustworthy enough to begin assuming this roll.
And that is what it is, assuming a place of power and exerting dominance over what is in-fact international waters.

I have this opinion because of their territorial claims to basically the entirety of the SCS. Their repeated attacks on Vietnamese platforms in waters that have historically been they’re economic zones.,As well has Chinas hoard of merchant fishing vessels that show no compunction harvesting in other nations historic fishing areas.

In a different world this might not be a big concern. In the present one is more of a hungry cancer.
 

Philippine ship, Chinese vessel collide in South China Sea: Beijing​


BEIJING, June 17, 2024 (AFP) – A Philippine ship and a Chinese vessel collided near the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea on Monday, Beijing’s Coast Guard said.

“The Philippine replenishment ship ignored many solemn warnings from the Chinese side,” Beijing’s coast guard said in a statement.
 
A Filipino soldier was reportedly hurt during a collision between Philippine and Chinese vessels in the waters adjacent to Ayungin Shoal on Monday morning.A reliable source of GMA Integrated News said a medical evacuation was conducted for the soldier who sustained injuries during an alleged resupply mission. His condition is still being determined.


China Just Escalated in a BIG WayFor months China has been interfering in Philippine resupply operations to Second Thomas Shoal. The use of water cannons, shouldering, and now forcefully towing vessels has resulted in severe injuries and damage to vessels.To underscore the seriousness of this latest incident, the Philippine President has recently stated: “If a Filipino citizen was killed by a wilful act, that is very close to what we define as an act of war,” Marcos said in May during the Shagri-La dialouge. “We would have crossed the Rubicon. Is that a red line? Almost certainly.”Moreover, China’s actions have been previously declared a contravention of international law. The 2016 international arbitration found: China in violation of art. 279 (obligation to settle disputes by peaceful means), 296 (finality and binding force of decisions) and 300 (good faith and abuse of rights) of the UN Convention on the Law of Sea.The most recent provocation resulting in a severe injury as well as damage to Philippine vessels risks triggering the U.S. mutual defense treaty with the Philippines; a serious escalation. As such, the U.S. must forcefully respond and unmistakably signal the danger of China’s continued provocations.Anything less than a clear military signal matched by forceful diplomacy will likely see the cycle of violence escalate.


Chinese ships rammed and towed Philippine vessels on a rotation and resupply (Rore) mission to Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal on Monday, causing damage and endangering the lives of Filipino sailors, Philippine officials said.

 

Philippine Sailor Severely Injured, Vessels Damaged as Chinese Block South China Sea Mission​

A Philippine sailor suffered severe injuries when Chinese forces blocked an Armed Forces of the Philippines resupply mission in the South China Sea, Pentagon officials confirmed to USNI News. The AFP mission to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57) outpost at Second Thomas Shoal also resulted in damage to an unknown number of Philippine vessels.
The Philippine sailor was injured as a result of the “PRC vessels’ dangerous and deliberate use of water cannons, ramming, and blocking maneuvers,” reads a Monday statement from Office of the Secretary of Defense spokesperson U.S. Army Maj Pete Nguyen to USNI News.
 
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Apparently, Chinese claim that it was #Philippines who provoked CCG during the recent incident at Second Thomas Shoal. But below is a video, clearly depicting 3 CCG ships harassing a small Filipino coastal craft. How is this a provocation by Philippines? 1/3

Below, #China's Goebbels goes a step ahead & says #CCP dealt with this using the new law for #SouthChinaSea, leading to a Filipino sailor's injury!It's clear that for China, SCS is not a grey zone operation anymore! It's an attempt for complete control! 2/3

CCP is calling any action of PH as US-supported, maybe trying to create wedge within PH's domestic politics. Trick might be to drag US into this mess so that under the garb of great power rivalry, any action PH takes against China is seen as provoked by US! 3/3


 
New: Pentagon on China’s “very concerning” attack @ Ayungin Shoal in Philippine territory“This kind of behavior is provocative. It’s reckless. It’s unnecessary. & it could lead to something bigger & more violent”A significant escalation — everything you need to know
👇
• Chinese Coast Guard & Maritime Militia employed the “dangerous & deliberate use of water cannons, ramming, & blocking”• 8 Filipinos injured, including one who lost a thumb, near Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal• Collided, boarded, searched, & seized multiple Philippine boats, & confiscated firearms• Disrupted the mission & prevented resupply• Established & enforcing a de facto blockade• Beijing wasted no time weaponizing a recently enacted law that allows the CCG to detain “trespassers” by force & without trial, anywhere within its vast claims across the SCS• 3rd incident since March where Philippine personnel have been injured by Chinese forces• Will Beijing try to normalize this hostile behavior?
🎯
“China will always claim to be the victim of their own aggression. They will blame this on the Filipinos

 
Apparently, Chinese claim that it was #Philippines who provoked CCG during the recent incident at Second Thomas Shoal. But below is a video, clearly depicting 3 CCG ships harassing a small Filipino coastal craft. How is this a provocation by Philippines? 1/3

Below, #China's Goebbels goes a step ahead & says #CCP dealt with this using the new law for #SouthChinaSea, leading to a Filipino sailor's injury!It's clear that for China, SCS is not a grey zone operation anymore! It's an attempt for complete control! 2/3

CCP is calling any action of PH as US-supported, maybe trying to create wedge within PH's domestic politics. Trick might be to drag US into this mess so that under the garb of great power rivalry, any action PH takes against China is seen as provoked by US! 3/3


So, is this ramping up of actions and territorial claims made by China an analogue to Russias claims and actions prior to their invasion of Ukraine?

We acknowledge that there are external circumstances that influence nations to make the decision to go to war or undertake a special operation.
Is US the elections this fall an influence that might provoke China to attempt to force some issue kinetically. Not WW3 or even invading Taiwan. Smaller but no less consequential as far as power dynamics go.

In the US anti-Ukrainian support crowd there is a creeping hysteria regarding Taiwan and China fear porn. And it is being spurred on by influencers.
Put your thinking caps on people.

My sense is we’re witnessing a version of asymmetric war going on right now.

Not one that in any way is leading to some grand climax of WW3 or invading Taiwan.
I know this is mostly self evident what is going on. None of us are blind.
But I asked it purposefully from the paradigm of asymmetric war.
Don’t expect the dominos of an asymmetric attack or war to simply fall sequentially one after the other. Tic tok tic tok. Rather decades

Framing it that way what are the asymmetric strategies that can be employed against this. Or non asymmetric strategies for that matter.
It’s generally regarded that after the last twenty years no nation wants to go head to head with the US in direct battle. Well then maybe give them what they don’t want.
I’m not arguing for open warfare… only opening the board to what might be possible given it’s a war by any other name.
Not just “watch out…..ouch that hurt…… react” like “George of the Jungle”
 
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