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What is the truth?

william

william

Power Poster IV
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Joined
Mar 3, 2021
Assuming the government isn’t lying or massaging the numbers (lying) then their methods models and algorithms are broken.

Simple metrics like what a cart of groceries cost week to week (which are surprisingly robust, allowing for supply chain outliers on any one item to carry reduced impact) show significant rises in the last few years. Single sources such a gasoline are volatile (😏)
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
"What is truth?” - John 18:38b

It is possible that inflation numbers are down. They have been trending down lately, the economy swinging back from the horrible numbers from the early Biden presidency.
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The rate of inflation might be going down, but the sad truth is that prices are about 20% higher than they were prior to the pandemic. All politics aside, this is a fact that the people who are suffering the most from inflation are those who can least afford to pay higher prices.
 
william said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1823714505412501890



https://twitter.com/x/status/1823707586580939254

I don't know about you but I'm gonna go with the restaurant owner.
They wouldn't try to skew the numbers for the upcoming election, would they?
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Inflation rates can decrease yet prices still increase. Essentially, instead of prices increasing 8% per period, maybe they are now increasing at 2.5% per period. In other words, the the inflation rate decelerated. But there is still positive inflation.

(There generally will be some inflation in a growing economy.)
 
The expert advice on optimal inflation rate is 2%.
That however is in an economy that is robustly growing spectrum wide. Not one that is in an investor speculative boom market.
A 2 % inflation rate is also illusionary in an economy when a gov is printing dollars and dumping them into the economy free. That is called buying economic activity and is always 100% inflationary dollar for dollar.

Inflation has quieted down the better question might be is why has inflation quieted down?
 
OReid said:
Inflation has quieted down the better question might be is why has inflation quieted down?
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That is a good question. The last round of quantitative easing (QE4) ended in March 2022. So I am not sure the reduction in inflation rates is related to that. It's possible that the interest rate hikes instituted by the FED in 2023 finally cooled things off. It's also possible that whatever caused the underlying inflation (supply chain pressure?) partially remediated itself.
  • If it was cost-push inflation, it's possible that raw material expense, production costs, or labor costs stabilized.
  • If it was demand-pull inflation, it's possible that consumer demand pulled back some, production increased, or both.
 
Torch said:
Assuming the government isn’t lying or massaging the numbers (lying) then their methods models and algorithms are broken.

Simple metrics like what a cart of groceries cost week to week (which are surprisingly robust, allowing for supply chain outliers on any one item to carry reduced impact) show significant rises in the last few years. Single sources such a gasoline are volatile (😏)
Click to expand...
The government wouldn't lie, would they? :ROFLMAO:
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
"What is truth?” - John 18:38b

It is possible that inflation numbers are down. They have been trending down lately, the economy swinging back from the horrible numbers from the early Biden presidency.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I guess so. All I know is I was at the grocery store the other day and checking out the meat prices. A beef brisket was $118! :mad: Should have taken a pic of it but I didn't have my phone on me.
 
teekay99 said:
That is a good question. The last round of quantitative easing (QE4) ended in March 2022. So I am not sure the reduction in inflation rates is related to that. It's possible that the interest rate hikes instituted by the FED in 2023 finally cooled things off. It's also possible that whatever caused the underlying inflation (supply chain pressure?) partially remediated itself.
  • If it was cost-push inflation, it's possible that raw material expense, production costs, or labor costs stabilized.
  • If it was demand-pull inflation, it's possible that consumer demand pulled back some, production increased, or both.
Click to expand...
Personally, I think they are manipulating the numbers for the coming election. That's my personal opinion though.
 
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Well, inflation by government metrics may well be down -- it's probably a great time to buy a BMW or a yacht or a summer home. However, it's a terrible time to try and feed your family. Grocery prices aren't included in the government's inflation figures (which has never made sense to me). I'd say the vast majority of the American public doesn't have much disposable income and doesn't care about the prices of high end items. They care about the fact that they can no longer afford chicken, beef or pork more than once a week. And that pizza is now a luxury for their family.
 
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