Two announcements which came in recent days suggest the US expects Russia to invade Europe, and is actively trying to get its troops out of the way: the idea of relocating 35k US troops from Germany to Hungary (Russian puppet state; won't be directly attacked) and the announcement that the US will not participate in planning military exercises in Europe from 2026 onward. There's also that statement from Hegseth that the US intends to "revise its posture" in Europe after a peace deal is signed with Ukraine. This is probably a prelude to withdrawing US troops from Poland and the Baltics under the guise of "confidence-building measures".
While the US has numerous installations in Germany, most of which are holdovers from the Cold War, there are only two permanent US bases east of the German border - in Desevelu (Romania) and Redzikowo (Poland), both of which are part of the Aegis Ashore ABM system and were originally intended to defend the USA from ballistic threats originating in the Middle East (mainly Iran). The status of these installations following a Russian invasion is unknown, but rumors circulate that Trump may agree to dismantle them as another free gift to Putin.
It’s important to look at the historical context and current policies to understand what’s happening with the U.S. military posture in Europe.
Since WWII, the U.S. has stationed troops in Europe to prevent Soviet and later Russian aggression. NATOs Article 5 collective defense has only been invoked once after 9/11, but remains the foundation of transatlantic security and corner stone of American Security too! Democracies are stronger when they work and stand together.
U.S. relocating troops from Germany to Hungary is just nuts, Hungary has been increasingly aligned with Russia and would likely not be directly attacked in a broader conflict. This could be a way as you said for the U.S. to move its troops out of harm’s way without fully withdrawing from Europe for sure...
U.S. will stop participating in european military exercises after 2026 is also nuts. The Pentagon has already shifted focus toward the Indo Pacific, and if the U.S. reduces its role in NATO exercises, it could signal to Russia that NATO’s deterrence posture is weakening.
The U.S. has two key permanent military sites in Germany. Both part of the Aegis ashore missile defense system, officially aimed at countering threats from Iran but seen by Russia as a threat to its nuclear deterrence. If the U.S. were to withdraw from Poland and the baltics, as stated by Trump administration, it would remove a major obstacle to Russian military expansion.
The concern about Trump administration dismantling these installations isn’t far fetched. Trump has previously suggested pulling out of NATO altogether, and there have been persistent rumors that he could negotiate troop withdrawals as part of a deal with Russia. If that happens, Eastern Europe is left wide open.
Russia has a military doctrine that includes using tactical nuclear weapons in a conventional war to force de escalation. This is sometimes called the escalate to de escalate strategy, and it’s designed to make the west hesitate before responding.
If the U.S. were to renege on Article 5 but still have a military presence in Europe, it would create a highly unstable situation. If a U.S. base in Europe were hit by a Russian nuke, public pressure would likely force an American response meaning that even if the U.S. tried to avoid a war,
it could be drawn in anyway.
If these trends continue, Russia could feel emboldened to act just like it did in Georgia and Crimea when Western responses were limited. The more NATO signals weakness or disunity, the more likely we are to see another test of its resolve.
Will be scary to see how this develops over the next few years... all because of two men. Putin & same lesser extent (or extention of) Trump.
Other than that, I don't understand what your point is.
) isn't really necessary.
