Future Potential Russian Invasion of NATO Members

[Torch]

I cannot make any sense of this reply.

That’s because I was angry and should not have made an unproductive post. I shall self censor. Thank you for pointing this out. Have a great day!

 

[GBS61]

I cannot make any sense of this reply.

Who is TDS?

 

[Socom7]

Who is TDS?

That stands for "Trump Derangement Syndrome" and it's a term often used by core supporters of Donald Trump to describe his detractors - the idea being that they're obsessed with hatred for the aforesaid Donald Trump in a way which overrides common sense.

That's about as impartial a definition of the term as I'm able to present.

 

[Erecon]

Got a few questions about Putins Nuclear briefcase that he keeps close to him all the time. How would it work if the signal is supressed? Is it only Putin that can issue a Nuclear response to a US first strike? Or do they have a auto system?

 

[Socom7]

Got a few questions about Putins Nuclear briefcase that he keeps close to him all the time. How would it work if the signal is supressed? Is it only Putin that can issue a Nuclear response to a US first strike? Or do they have a auto system?

Each of these questions merits a very long response - which would probably bore you to death. Here's a short lowdown (note: the Russian C3 system for nuclear weapons is not public knowledge, so please take anything you read here with a big lump of salt):

• There's no way to "suppress" a launch order once given, but in peacetime the Russian nuclear briefcases are physically decoupled from the system, so a launch order would not go through even if issued. In times of heightened tension - and we have every right to believe we're in such a period right now - the system receives what is known as a "preliminary command", which means that the briefcases are connected, and a launch order would go through if issued. Note, however, that all of this is merely speculation.
• In case of a US first strike the nuclear response could be commanded by any holder of a nuclear briefcase - in Russia that's three persons: the president, the chief of the general staff, and the minister of defense.
• Regarding the auto system - that's a deep rabbit hole. In general, Russia has sort of a dead man's hand system (called "Perimeter"), but it's not entirely automatic... eh, long story. For the purposes of your question - no, it is not an auto system; there's a human in the loop.

HTH.

 

[Publius]

Two announcements which came in recent days suggest the US expects Russia to invade Europe,

They do who’s they

and is actively trying to get its troops out of the way: the idea of relocating 35k US troops from Germany to Hungary

Again this is an unsupported assertion which is not indicated by any Current admin officials assurance to the Baltics Poland or Romanian. I’ve already sourced them.

(Russian puppet state; won't be directly attacked) and the announcement that the US will not participate in planning military exercises in Europe from 2026 onward. There's also that statement from Hegseth that the US intends to "revise its posture" in Europe after a peace deal is signed with Ukraine. This is probably a prelude to withdrawing US troops from Poland and the Baltics under the guise of "confidence-building measures".

Again is contrary to current admin commitments to Poland.

While the US has numerous installations in Germany, most of which are holdovers from the Cold War, there are only two permanent US bases east of the German border - in Desevelu (Romania) and Redzikowo (Poland), both of which are part of the Aegis Ashore ABM system and were originally intended to defend the USA from ballistic threats originating in the Middle East (mainly Iran).

False their are 15 US military installations from Bulgaria to Estonia with troops stationed their or on continual training rotation. Talks to build new one

in Poland and expansion in Romania.
I have seen no speculation that the AGEIS ashore installations will be discomtinued.

I am going to get personal here,
If you can’t source wild claims stop wasting our time posting them unsupported

European Countries That Host American Miliary Bases - Brilliant Maps

The map above shows which European countries currently host at least one US military base. Here's the list for all the countries mentioned above according to MilitaryINSTALLATIONS with links to more information about them.

brilliantmaps.com

The status of these installations following a Russian invasion is unknown, but rumors circulate that Trump may agree to dismantle them as another free gift to Putin.

 

[Socom7]

They do who’s they

I'm sorry, but that just doesn't make any semantic sense in English, and I don't understand what you're on about.

Again is contrary to current admin commitments to Poland.

No sh*t...

False their are 15 US military installations from Bulgaria to Estonia with troops stationed their or on continual training rotation.

I said "permanent US bases". Rotational presence is another thing altogether.

I have seen no speculation that the AGEIS ashore installations will be discomtinued.

Oh believe me, it's all over the grapevine.

I am going to get personal here,

Go ahead, I can take it.

If you can’t source wild claims stop wasting our time posting them unsupported

European Countries That Host American Miliary Bases - Brilliant Maps

The map above shows which European countries currently host at least one US military base. Here's the list for all the countries mentioned above according to MilitaryINSTALLATIONS with links to more information about them.

brilliantmaps.com

This is a piss-poor map with no detail whatsoever. Here's a much more detailed one: Where are US military bases in Europe?

 

[GBS61]

Got a few questions about Putins Nuclear briefcase that he keeps close to him all the time. How would it work if the signal is supressed? Is it only Putin that can issue a Nuclear response to a US first strike? Or do they have a auto system?

"In theory, the automated system would allow Moscow to respond to a Western attack even if top military officials had been killed and the capital had been incinerated.

The heart of the system would be in deep underground bunkers south of Moscow and at rescue sites. In the event of a crisis, military officials would send a coded message to the bunkers, switching to the Perimeter. If nearby ground-level sensors detected a nuclear attack on Moscow and a breakdown in communications links with top military commanders was detected, the system would send low-frequency signals through underground antennas to special rockets.

Flying high above missile sites and other military sites, these rockets would in turn broadcast attack orders to missiles, bombers and, via radio relays, submarines at sea. Contrary to some Western beliefs, many of the Russian nuclear-armed missiles in underground silos and on mobile launchers can be launched automatically, according to Dr Blair.14

 

[GBS61]

But don't worry, the USA would not commit such madness, even with Trump.

 

[Yingyang]

2022 reports of Russian soldiers raiding white goods for semi conductors etc etc. How is Europe threatened? Russian soldiers and equipment useless as reports claim all these yrs of Ukraine conflict. How is Europe threatened? Nato capacity and capabilities compared to Russia. How is Europe threatened?
Sanctions to reduce, restrict and disable Russian military capacity and capabilities. How is Europe threatened?
Russian lack of logistics.
How is Europe threatened?
Really the question should be why is Europe threatened and in all honesty nothing can or has been produced to support how or why. Except personal opinions of those who 1 minute say Russia is weak and no real threat to currently Russia is suddenly more powerful and a garenteed threat in a short time period in the future. Absolutely outstanding entertainment here and globally. Lmao to all those years ago confident Ukraine and West have this . Now ?

 

[Publius]

While the US has numerous installations in Germany, most of which are holdovers from the Cold War,

You included installations in your post so I sighted and references them accurately as installations.

And farther down in the article I linked their is this map with I was referring to.


Rumors not even linked to social media or any news source is kinda thin and don’t really have much credibility.
So call me skeptical.

 

[Torch]

You included installations in your post so I sighted and references them accurately as installations.

And farther down in the article I linked their is this map with I was referring to.
View attachment 6904

Rumors not even linked to social media or any news source is kinda thin and don’t really have much credibility.
So call me skeptical.

Critical Thinking GOP member’s valuation of sources re: Trump utterances and other imponderable and ineffables.

•NATO announced: B-

•White House: B

•Official Pentagon Spokesman in the briefing room on the record: A-*

•Anything but Trump on X or Truth: C

•Trump on X / Truth : ha ha ha, “you were serious about that?”
D-

*tactical misdirection (aka lying) for ComSec / Counter Intelligence is alive and well

 

[Bravo]

Good article and deserves some attention.
Follow on article the c-3 or NC-3 encrypted coms are designed for early warning and command of nuclear weapons.
Like the US system its encryption is redundant and robust. To protect against failures.
While the paper I’m referencing doesn’t confirm the late 2024 /2025 activity.
It’s worth exploring as much as it can be in open sources.
I appreciate the supported source and will give it some time.

RUSSIA’S NC3 AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS | Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability

Strange. Since a few Months we have Sabotage and Espionage Incidents in Germany. Two incidents took place on different Wharfs, were Equipment for the German Marine was repaired. Drones overflew Military Areas. A reported Sabotage took place against Army Vehicles in Repair Sites. Don't know if this is linked.