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Discussions --Lead Up to Talks & US Military Intervention Against Iran Nuclear Facilities Threatened When Talks Fail

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Possible scenario:
Israel says: I'm asking for a reduction on the 17% tariffs.
USA says: What! You're already costing us a lot, BIBI. You have no idea, BIBI, how much all our hardware costs in your region to protect you.

In my opinion, Bbii might get yelled at by Trump and accuse him of wanting to start World War III.

Trump: Get out of here, Benjamin, and think again.
It's been seen before...
 
GBS61 said:
Possible scenario:
Israel says: I'm asking for a reduction on the 17% tariffs.
USA says: What! You're already costing us a lot, BIBI. You have no idea, BIBI, how much all our hardware costs in your region to protect you.

In my opinion, Bbii might get yelled at by Trump and accuse him of wanting to start World War III.

Trump: Get out of here, Benjamin, and think again.
It's been seen before...
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For some unfathomable reason Trump will do everything for Israel - the last real ally the US has (although it would be more accurate to describe the US as an ally of Israel rather than the other way around) - even though it's not even his electorate:

1743967579641.png
 
Socom7 said:
I doubt Iran currently has a working nuclear warhead that fits on one of their missiles and is ready for launch. That is, unless they bought one on Amazon from someone going by the user handle totallynotputin. Likewise, I don't see the US using nuclear weapons against Iran in a first-strike scenario.
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Not necessarily, but I see this quickly spiraling out of hand. You also don't need a missile to set off an atomic bomb. You just need to smuggle it to its target, really. Which is why, personally, my preparedness is in line with a 3. Because of how fluidly this could degenerate from a 5 to a 2 faster than I'd actually see it happen if my (educated assumption) that they probably have some form of nuclear bomb is accurate. I also don't think the national suicide argument applies as cleanly in a cornered animal scenario when it's a country run by a theocratic death cult. Taking out the enemy with them if this breaks out into a full war isn't a crazy remote possibility, martyrdom is kind of a pervasive part of their ideology and (via proxies) military strategy.

Even if they were to use one but it were to stay contained to a regional issue, the taboo would be broken.
 
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Winnitude said:
I also don't think the national suicide argument applies as cleanly in a cornered animal scenario when it's a country run by a theocratic death cult.
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Iran's internal political landscape is far too complex for it to be labeled a "theocratic death cult". Despite the outward appearance, moderate forces have a not-insignificant amount of influence, and in some ways Iran is actually behaving more rationally than the US.

Never hate your enemy. It clouds your judgment.
- old proverb
 
DarkNoon said:
👀
A reporter for Saudi Arabia's Al-Sharq TV reported that Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan will travel to Washington tomorrow and is scheduled to meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1909011585605013654
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Saudi Foreign Minister’s Sudden D.C. Visit During Netanyahu Trip Raises Iran Questions......

The Saudi Foreign Minister’s unannounced arrival in Washington at the exact time Israeli PM Netanyahu is meeting with Trump feels far too calculated to be coincidence.

With tensions around Iran escalating fast, this could signal:
  • Final quiet consultations before a strike.
  • Coordination of regional response plans.
  • Or early formation of a strategic axis under Trump’s influence.
This is a moment to watch closely.
Because when the Saudis and Israelis show up quietly at the same table it usually means something loud is coming soon.
 
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It is possible Iran already has working nukes. Consider it took the west the second time to confirm NK nuke test. The sniffer couldn't detect the first test they admitted. This was due to depth underground. Iran would definitely have done the same. First time America tried with bunker bombs to destroy underground facilities they couldn't due to depth.
 
DarkNoon said:
Also don't forget that the Saudis and Israelis BOTH in D.C at the SAME TIME, TODAY.
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The tension, the history, the stakes, and the eerie quiet before the explosion.

👉 Because when old rivals break bread behind closed doors, it’s never for small talk.

It’s strategy.
It’s signaling.
It’s war prep.
 
Yingyang said:
It is possible Iran already has working nukes. Consider it took the west the second time to confirm NK nuke test. The sniffer couldn't detect the first test they admitted. This was due to depth underground. Iran would definitely have done the same. First time America tried with bunker bombs to destroy underground facilities they couldn't due to depth.
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They suspected it through seismic signatures though which is something they could easily detect in Iran. I agree it’s not entirely out of the question Iran has a functional nuclear weapon or could build one in a very short period of time and could test one but they’d likely want the west to know they did it as a symbol of resolve. Also what bunker buster strike are you referring to?
 
Socom7 said:
My money is on Iran not currently possessing a usable nuclear device (and by usable I mean "capable of being reliably delivered to a meaningful target outside Iran").

I could be wrong, of course.
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I agree with the second part of that. Even if Iran has a nuclear weapon, short of driving it in a truck bed, I doubt they have any sort of delivery system. I also think they’ll test one before they’d use one.
 
Snowfall said:
doubt they have any sort of delivery system
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Unless Russia gave them something to fire one off with during those cargo flights to Tehran last year...

It seems like everyone forgot there was a rather long running, non-stop chain of Russian military cargo flights landing in Tehran throughout the peak of the Israel–Iran tit-for-tat exchanges.

👉 They were clearly supplying *something* and it's not unreasonable to conclude that *something* included components or systems related to delivery.

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch I'm sure you guys have not forgotten! Hope not. 🤨
 
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Socom7 said:
My money is on Iran not currently possessing a usable nuclear device (and by usable I mean "capable of being reliably delivered to a meaningful target outside Iran").

I could be wrong, of course.
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If the pretext is already established that no matter what the method a nuclear attack by Iran is an "I'm taking you with me!" last ditch suicide move, then I don't know how much it matters. I don't see why it would be impossible to use a semi truck, or use some terrorists in a couple unsuspecting nations to move the cargo as bounce points to conceal the origin and ship a nuke to Israel's coast in a cargo ship. People smuggle things and get past sanctions using such methods like proxy countries all the time. It's not terribly likely, but it's also not really beyond reason in the existing scenario where this does devolve into a nuclear disaster when Iran runs out of options and the primitive delivery methods are also the ones that skip any and all forms of early warning. Nobody would know until it went off.

I also don't think it's entirely out of the realm of reason that Russia could have supplied them some delivery methods.

I don't think it will get there and I don't think it is a rational move but there are just enough possible factors and uncertainties that again I just can't shake the feeling that what is a 5 right now could rapidly descend (not in terms of immediacy from today... but from the start of things really going to shit, whenever that is) before I'd have time to even check feeds and notice, and once one goes off in the middle east, the taboo is broken and I don't want to know how things will evolve from there, there is no knowing if I would really have time to prepare for what comes after that on the global scale if I waited to hear that one popped first.
 
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Spyglass said:
Wonder what Trump’s White House itinerary is this week….
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Would I like to be the fly on the wall in the Oval Office where inevitably Israeli & Saudi delegations will meet together with Trump today/tomorrow.

---

Yes there is no official confirmation of such a meet, probably never will. Here's why:

The Saudi FM announces a trip with ZERO notice, less then 24 hours, something extremely rare in diplomacy especially for a state that choreographs optics down to the frame like the Saudis always do. They love a good photo-op.

Saudis arrive in Washington, the only place where the Saudis can safely interact with the Israelis under plausible deniability as for domestic reasons Saudi FM cannot be seen with Israelis bad press for them.

Saudis land the same day as Israelis WHO ARE ALSO on a short-notice visit to DC.

The one common, urgent issue that would justify high speed, high risk travel by both parties? Iran.

👉 There is no diplomatic precedent where both Israel and Saudi Arabia, with a history of backchannel coordination but zero public cooperation, land in the same capital at the same time without meeting especially when Iran is the fuse burning at both ends.

👉 So no this isn’t guesswork. It’s pattern recognition. It’s seeing the outline of a meeting that’s deliberately being kept off paper, off camera, off record.
 
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DarkNoon said:
📣🇮🇷🇺🇸
Trump says the US will hold direct talks with Iran as he insists Tehran can’t get nuclear weapons.

President Donald Trump stated that the United States will engage in direct high-level talks with Iran concerning its nuclear program. He emphasized that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons and warned of severe consequences if negotiations fail. This announcement was made during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House.

Read More Here 👇

Trump says US will be holding direct talks with Iran starting Saturday, as he insists Tehran can't get nuclear weapons

www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
apnews.com

Trump says the US will hold direct talks with Iran; Tehran says they'll be indirect negotiations

President Donald Trump says the U.S. is holding direct talks with Iran about its nuclear program. He also warns Tehran it will be in “great danger” if the talks aren’t successful.
apnews.com apnews.com

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch
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Iran has not confirmed direct talks. Only Trump has said so. Also what & how Bibi and Trump said, must watch, under 2 minutes long:

That's not so reassuring. Iran will not give up its nuclear weapons program, especially under duress. So we are still stuck with no off ramps. IMO at least, why even bother to talk unless everyone's stalling for the inevitable. The Saudis (unscheduled) visit today is entirly unreassuring while the Israelis are in town too.

Don't be to easily falsely pulled into a sense of ease. Even Trump said in the video "this is a very dangerous situation" and for once I don't think he was just making shit up on the fly like usual.
 
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