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I mean, by definition on the short term candles, that is not a dead cat.
If you zoom out to the day/week candles, yeah it’s a dead cat.
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Trump Trade War U.S.-China agree to cut tariffs - Dow futures rocket higher by 1,100 points
- Thread starter Irag8er
- Start date
If you zoom out to the day/week candles, yeah it’s a dead cat.
#IRAN
In the early stages of gain I agreed with you. But the sudden drop surges indicates otherwise.
I think it’s not just possible that insiders are reacting to a credible whisper of action against Iran... it’s probable more I think about it.
A move like that doesn’t stay locked down forever. People connected to the energy sector, defense contractors, private security firms, Gulf states, someone leaks. Someone gets spooked. Someone moves money. I think that's what we are witnessing. The beginning stages. The first ripples or signs of a US attack against Iran. @Snowfall COULD be wrong. But... sure does put a lot of pieces together.
Don't think it was really the fake new story either. Markets act fast, but not at that scale over something that small and unconfirmed.
Also don't forget that the Saudis and Israelis BOTH in D.C at the SAME TIME, TODAY.
When the Saudis and Israelis sit together at a table, let alone in DC... Things usually go boom soon after.
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The people around Trump don't need to game the market like that. They have an entire country to plunder, and plenty of time in which to do it.
Yes, the US is very likely going to war with Iran, but I wouldn't necessarily connect those two dots.
When you have the market this spooked (source), any piece of news - even if fake - can launch a stampede.
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Remember how I mentioned the crypto markets getting trashed a week ago was an indication of action against Iran?
Stocks following suit wasn’t a surprise here.
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So a 10% market drop is scary and useful for narrative support I suppose.
apnews.com
But as I’ve already pointed out elsewhere we’re still basically where we were April of last year regarding the stock market.
Taken together that much of the movement we see in stock markets is due to flash pan stories, policy changes, international incidents, or government pumping of liquidity. All almost exclusively speculative!
And it becomes clear that market valuations are less to do with actual economic health or market strengths. There is such a thing as stock market inflation I believe.
So we’re all shocked and appalled that the market’s initial response is down with such a significant trade policy change as we’ve seen Trumps second term?
I wasn’t really thinking anything about short term market valuations. Because it’s not about short term trends but about long term survival.
If these trade policies create more jobs for Americans, a correction of the US overall trade imbalance, and reduction in deficits.
Then is a win.
Maybe just maybe Americans can stop spending less than 50% of income on housing.
When that’s your world you could care less about the stock market. The stock market index is like fairly land, it’s meaningless to you.
And if all this means that successive market highs plateau. Well then the speculative market age is just going to have to die.
Does anyone even remember what a blue chip stock was. You know a company who made actual profits and grew their market share.
So again if financial and business concerns overseas sees a favorable environment to actually invest in US manf and jobs growth. And it’s good enough for B Ackman it’s good enough for me to not panic.
Biden had two quarters of negative growth in 22, and we didn’t call it a recession. I think we can at least wait that long to do so here.
Always best to avoid explosives and flammable rhetoric when bombs aren’t exploding and people aren’t shooting at you.
A 10% drop for stocks is scary, but isn't that rare
The U.S. stock market has just dropped 10% from its high set last month, hurt by worries about the economy and a global trade war.
apnews.com
But as I’ve already pointed out elsewhere we’re still basically where we were April of last year regarding the stock market.
Taken together that much of the movement we see in stock markets is due to flash pan stories, policy changes, international incidents, or government pumping of liquidity. All almost exclusively speculative!
And it becomes clear that market valuations are less to do with actual economic health or market strengths. There is such a thing as stock market inflation I believe.
So we’re all shocked and appalled that the market’s initial response is down with such a significant trade policy change as we’ve seen Trumps second term?
I wasn’t really thinking anything about short term market valuations. Because it’s not about short term trends but about long term survival.
If these trade policies create more jobs for Americans, a correction of the US overall trade imbalance, and reduction in deficits.
Then is a win.
Maybe just maybe Americans can stop spending less than 50% of income on housing.
When that’s your world you could care less about the stock market. The stock market index is like fairly land, it’s meaningless to you.
And if all this means that successive market highs plateau. Well then the speculative market age is just going to have to die.
Does anyone even remember what a blue chip stock was. You know a company who made actual profits and grew their market share.
So again if financial and business concerns overseas sees a favorable environment to actually invest in US manf and jobs growth. And it’s good enough for B Ackman it’s good enough for me to not panic.
Biden had two quarters of negative growth in 22, and we didn’t call it a recession. I think we can at least wait that long to do so here.
Always best to avoid explosives and flammable rhetoric when bombs aren’t exploding and people aren’t shooting at you.
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This market crash has nothing to do with Iran; it's clearly a consequence of Trump's tariffs.
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This is not a crash I’m sorry it reaction an adjustment, sure.
But this is not a crash
The Dow closed at its lowest point yesterday in over a year.
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Just a reminder
️ that fireman and police officers and other service providers have their retirement in the US stock market. The notion that we would destroy $8 trillion (now++) worth of capital in the hopes of closing a $1.2 trillion trade deficit is lacking all logic.
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Stock Market Global Freefall, Live;
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Trump: *objectively undeniably crashes stock market with his key economic plan*
The fact the stock market rose so much after he announced cutting back just to 10%, shows how disasterous every economist and trader knows they'd be.
Too bad we gave all our allies an excuse to move away from the US and USD and the damage is done.
The fact the stock market rose so much after he announced cutting back just to 10%, shows how disasterous every economist and trader knows they'd be.
Too bad we gave all our allies an excuse to move away from the US and USD and the damage is done.
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I wouldn't say they were a very good Allie when they cozy up to the ccp because the US wants a fair playing field.
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Tarrifs based on trade deficits are not "fair". Reciprocal tarrifs would be tarrifs of the percent that country charges us, which is objectively untrue for most of the previously planned tarrifs. Trade deficits are not tarrifs. They are a natural product of an advanced economy.
Do you realize where the USD gets its value? The fact you can buy goods in US dollars so easily around the world. There are countries where the USD is accepted below exchange rate because it's just that valuable.
When you start a trade war, and people move away, it's doesn't matter how you feel about those allies. Losing world reserve status is an absolutely massive deal. Suddenly you'll learn what the trillions of dollars we have globally do when nobody wants them.
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I duno. Something tells me countries are still going to want to do business with the US.
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Countries? Or central banks? Or civillian populations?I duno. Something tells me countries are still going to want to do business with the US.
Our currencies value comes from international central bank holdings and ease of use and exchange amongst the private market. It doesn't matter if countries do business with us if central banks choose other currencies as more stable, or if the private sector begins to stop accepting USD without first exchanging it.
Buying goods from the US isn't the problem. Buying goods in USD is. If people begin to think the euro or rmb or rupee are more stable and valuable, the USD loses value.
If foreigners stop buying US bonds, the cost to borrow for everyone, including private American companies or persons, goes up.
They can buy all the goods and services they want, that's not where our currencies value comes from.