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Trump Trade War U.S.-China agree to cut tariffs - Dow futures rocket higher by 1,100 points

intel-bank said:
Countries? Or central banks? Or civillian populations?

Our currencies value comes from international central bank holdings and ease of use and exchange amongst the private market. It doesn't matter if countries do business with us if central banks choose other currencies as more stable, or if the private sector begins to stop accepting USD without first exchanging it.

Buying goods from the US isn't the problem. Buying goods in USD is. If people begin to think the euro or rmb or rupee are more stable and valuable, the USD loses value.

If foreigners stop buying US bonds, the cost to borrow for everyone, including private American companies or persons, goes up.

They can buy all the goods and services they want, that's not where our currencies value comes from.
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Does t seem to be much of freak out at PIMCO bond market traders.

www.tradingkey.com

PIMCO's Ivascyn says US bond market selloff has been orderly

By Davide Barbuscia NEW YORK, April 9 (Reuters) - A sharp selloff in U.S. Treasuries this week has remained orderly despite continued uncertainty stemming from the U.S. administration's trade policies, said Dan Ivascyn, group chief investment officer at U.S. bond giant PIMCO on Wednesday.U.S....
www.tradingkey.com www.tradingkey.com
 
Treasuries being sold off in an orderly manner doesn't mean they weren't being sold off.

Treasury yields skyrocketed as the market crashed. This means investors were dumping US bonds. This is a really bad sign, normally people run for bonds in times of market turbulence because they are the most secure investment in the world. That is a dead give away - investors think it's not a good idea to loan us money, or that USD inflation will exceed bond rates.

As the market recovered today, treasury yields were up at market close. They dropped a little after US market close. Nowhere near the recovery that happened in the stock market.

PIMCO may feel fine - but the bond market doesn't lie. Would you trust a bank that picked fights with all it's customers with your money?
 
OReid said:
Does t seem to be much of freak out at PIMCO bond market traders.

www.tradingkey.com

PIMCO's Ivascyn says US bond market selloff has been orderly

By Davide Barbuscia NEW YORK, April 9 (Reuters) - A sharp selloff in U.S. Treasuries this week has remained orderly despite continued uncertainty stemming from the U.S. administration's trade policies, said Dan Ivascyn, group chief investment officer at U.S. bond giant PIMCO on Wednesday.U.S....
www.tradingkey.com www.tradingkey.com
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previous reply
 
OReid said:
Listen to a reporter or a major investment leader🤔
https://twitter.com/x/status/1910097472040653191

Except for waiting to see how much pain China chooses to suffer through.
This story is basically already over.
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Not just a reporter. Been following the market most of my life. Do you understand how yields work?

An investment firm has great intrest in reducing panic. They can lie. The bond market can't. An investment firm can say the market isn't dropping, doesn't mean it isn't dropping.
 
intel-bank said:
Do you understand how yields work?
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Sigh! do you have to resort to back handed insults.

You have a bias against the measures being taken purely from a political angle.

I have a bias that they work.
I’m sorry your not happy with who the president is or his policies.

So you’ve worked as an investor your whole life and know more than someone like Akman. Or the French industrialists?

good to know, but this is already an old story the trade agreements are already being made. There will be some lagging, significantly China.
You can argue that China does not engage in patten infringement, espionage, or predatory trade practices. Let’s not forget ethnic prison factories.
And that somehow it’s foolish or unrealistic to expect China to change.

I fear I will make no point or observation you will agree with.
 
OReid said:
Sigh! do you have to resort to back handed insults.
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Not an insult. Most people don't understand what yields mean.
OReid said:
You have a bias against the measures being taken purely from a political angle.
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Not against Trump, I am a globalist leftist. I believe all nations should be torn down. Trade barriers don't help that goal.
OReid said:
I have a bias that they work.
I’m sorry your not happy with who the president is or his policies.
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Your bias ignore history and WHAT YOU CAN SEE WITH YOUR OWN EYES.
OReid said:
you’ve worked as an investor your whole life and know more than someone like Akman. Or the French industrialists?
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No, but I remember first time I got into this stuff I was in 7th grade, and I am I'm 22 now. Was also taught finance including stocks. I have been practically obsessed with the economy for years and I DO know how it works.
I also have watched about 1000 investment bankers mispredict and mislead people intentionally. They are idiots who lie to manipulate markets
OReid said:
but this is already an old story the trade agreements are already being made. There will be some lagging, significantly China.
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SOME are. Fun question, which countries hold most US treasuries and can dump them in a single moment to destroy the US economy and spike borrowing costs
OReid said:
You can argue that China does not engage in patten infringement, espionage, or predatory trade practices. Let’s not forget ethnic prison factories.
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I never argued they don't. But tit for tat starts wars and degrades the value of a dollar. We benefit from China about as much as they benefit from us, by simply private entities trading in USD. China can stop that.
OReid said:
And that somehow it’s foolish or unrealistic to expect China to change.
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Correct, has North Korea changed?
OReid said:
I fear I will make no point or observation you will agree with.
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Not when you are telling me to not trust my own eyes.
 
Stock market continues falling after yesterday's rally.

USD Index 🔻 5% since this time last year, 7% since January 1st.

Treasury yields for US treasuries have gone up during the Asian trading session.
Given China and Japan hold enough treasuries to make our debt very very expensive, nd Asia as a whole, this isn't just a "well that's Asia"
 
intel-bank said:
PIMCO may feel fine - but the bond market doesn't lie. Would you trust a bank that picked fights with all it's customers with your money
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You do realize that “market” your speaking of trading activity is dominated by groups like PIMCO.
I’m not saying all of this has not created instability. Only that it is not as apocalyptic as many would like to claim.

Those that are claiming that this is some detrimental move by the Trump administration. Are not universally supported or justified in their claims.
 
OReid said:
You do realize that “market” your speaking of trading activity is dominated by groups like PIMCO.
I’m not saying all of this has not created instability. Only that it is not as apocalyptic as many would like to claim.
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Yea. Again, just because it was an orderly sell off doesn't change that it was a sell off. Bond market alone, what would happen is skyrocketing loan costs, and they are already up after this all. Then it all runs downstream. The US government can't borrow for cheap, companies can't. That is recipe for recession. Even if we don't sell a single bond from now on, the yield affects loan rates. But someone here posted about 9 trillion in debt needing restructured this year.... that will be restructured with these higher intrest rates.
OReid said:
Those that are claiming that this is some detrimental move by the Trump administration. Are not universally supported or justified in their cclaims.
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Most economists for the past century have known tarrifs worsen and cause economic downturns. Every time mass tarrifs in the us since we moved away from them, theyve made things worse. You can find an economist or 2 that dissent.

But JP Morgan, for example thinks the tarrifs simply being announced made the risk of recession 20% higher AND that the turn around did not reduce those risks as the damage has been done.

The market voted. The market said they thought tarrifs would almost certainly cause major problems, causing a "sell-america" period. And the stock market is very much linked to the economy, companies are expected to raise prices or lay people off when their stocks drop.
 

US markets down. Stock market woes this April are the worst since the Great Depression. Fact.

Foreign markets up as investors leave the US for other markets. Wow.

US GDP forecast down.

US growth futures down.

US bond market down.

First time ever US stocks are performing worse than they have since the Great Depression, while foreign markets are hitting record highs.

Ffs.... 🤬
 
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DarkNoon said:

US markets down, Foreign markets up as investors leave US to other markets. Wow.

First time ever US stocks doing worse since the great depression while foreign markets doing better then ever making records even.

Ffs.
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I'm ready for the new toys to hit the market in the 2030s, "Hey kids! Bored of staring at a wall because your parents are broke? Well fear no more! For the cheap price of $259.99, you can buy your very own ball and stick! (rope not attached purchases made separately)
 
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