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April/2025 | India-Pakistan -Kashmir | Terror Attack Fallout | Discussions

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Cilvilt_beredskap said:
Unsure. Pakistan is to the west of India. Maybe Warmonitor meant west.
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That's what I got from it. Still looking for original source but we already have 100% verified that air drills are ongoing. Just want to verify that little extra detail he dropped about bases being loaded and where.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
That's my guess.
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That seems almost baked into the situation. Lots of promises to “get the Culprit” and sending PAC diplomatic staff packing. With mostly similar responses by Pak.

Don’t see this blowing up into major military encounter.
 
OReid said:
Don’t see this blowing up into major military encounter.
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Normally, no. The problem I see is the comparison to the Oct 7 attack on Israel. In response, Israel blew the pogies out of Hamas and leveled Gaza. India is looking at Israel's response and is probably thinking they should do the same.

The question is: Will Pakistan stand by while India goes after a radical militant on Pakistani territory? Will India expand its operation to other targets?
 
Snowfall said:
I can’t see China going after India right now or even helping Pakistan. China needs BRICS to be united to help their development. Russia is too bogged down in Ukraine to help anyone case in point Syria.
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My point was that neither country has a vested interest in deescalating the situation.
 
7gtz said:
Very very important point I've reiterated multiple times in this thread. You simply cannot even imagine the level of hate. From infants to the elderly, if there's one thing that unifies India across every field it's hate for Pakistan as you can see with every political party unifying.
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I did spend some time in India and read some of their (printed) press - that was about 10 years ago, and I was really surprised about the level of hatred towards Pakistan on display in what passed for MSM - the vitriol was comparable to what Russian media had to say about Ukraine once the war was already underway, and one would, in fact, be excused for thinking India and Pak were indeed about to go to war.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Normally, no. The problem I see is the comparison to the Oct 7 attack on Israel. In response, Israel blew the pogies out of Hamas and leveled Gaza. India is looking at Israel's response and is probably thinking they should do the same.

The question is: Will Pakistan stand by while India goes after a radical militant on Pakistani territory? Will India expand its operation to other targets?
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A large military responce ( unless planned ahead ) would take months to build up.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Normally, no. The problem I see is the comparison to the Oct 7 attack on Israel. In response, Israel blew the pogies out of Hamas and leveled Gaza. India is looking at Israel's response and is probably thinking they should do the same.
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The circumstances did strike me as similar, but surely even Modi realizes Pakistan isn't Gaza, and their army isn't a guerrilla force.

I wonder what India's endgame is here, if there even is one. Yes, India has conventional military superiority over Pakistan, but a full-scale war would require far more extensive preparations than what is currently in evidence (although this may change in the coming days). OTOH airstrikes on militant camps won't really accomplish much - save, perhaps, for shoring up Modi's poll numbers. Given that Modi is essentially a much smarter version of Trump (all the jingoism without any of the crazy), I wonder whether he's only interested in theatrics, or whether he actually wants to occupy more of Kashmir. If it's the latter - Pakistan's move to abrogate the Simla Agreement might actually play into his hands.
 
7gtz said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1915452627191554533
Treaty formally held in abeyance.
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India has now formally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty...

A cornerstone of regional stability that even survived four wars. And they didn’t just threaten it. They’ve officially put it in abeyance, effective immediately.

This isn’t just legal language... it’s casus belli.
 
Erecon said:
Isnt the Indus river in Pakistan?
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Starts in China, source of river water from China BUT India can totally with ZERO doubt shut it off quickly... they already have dammed the river all the way up.

Pakistan said if India did this formaly it would be a act of war.

Pakistan farms depend on that river to grow food for Pakistan. Well over half of Pakistan farms require water from that river. Indian declared seige on Pakistan. If not war, without saying it.
 
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7gtz said:
China, which is a problem. China could cut off our water supplies, too, if we cut Pakistan off. I don't expect the government to cut water off. All that water has to go somewhere, and we have nowhere to store it.
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Either way. India can shut it off before it reaches Pakistan. Many dams along the way on that river.
 
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