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May/2025 | India-Pakistan | Escalating Crisis DEFCON 3 | Discussions

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Oh dear - spoke too soon.......
Maybe. Things calmed down again suddenly. Somthing happened. But seems to have stopped spreading. Let's hope it was just a hiccup.

Still expecting a Indian retaliation for the other day but lets keep hoping they choose the off ramp... Eyes peeled everyone.
 
Still expecting a Indian retaliation for the other day but lets keep hoping they choose the off ramp... Eyes peeled everyone.
Even if India does not respond this week, this month, or this year, India will likely respond in some way. This conflict, absent a permanent solution, will keep going. It’s been this way for years and this is not the last time we will hear of it.
 
I still think India's plan is to push Pakistan into a border war... not to seize land, but to drain their resources and force a collapse. It's strategic attrition, not territorial ambition.

If a border war breaks out, I don't see India going for land grabs. They'll just hold the line, grinding Pakistan down slowly over time until it collapses under its own weight. It's a war of exhaustion, not conquest.

It also seems reasonable that India is willing to endure this cycle of hostilities and playing along with ceasefire talks to keep Pakistan barley floating until its ready for the kill.

If Pakistan collapses too quickly, the risk of nuclear escalation rises. But if India can orchestrate a slow burn, stretching Pakistan's capacity over time, that risk is minimized. It’s controlled pressure, not a quick break. Lower nuclear risk.

India could very well be playing the long game here. I don't see them stopping, not after everything that's been said and done.

When Modi says 'never again,' I actually believe it, unlike the hollow promises of most world leaders. Modi's proven it time and again the past week there’s no doubt about his resolve.
Possible but there are a few things

-the balancing act that India would need to play, keep the conflict hot enough for Pakistan to commit troops and resources for attrition to work, but not hot enough for Pakistan to resort to its first use policy.
-China has a lot of investments in Pakistan, and Is no friend of India, China would probably resupply Pakistan making attrition more difficult if only to try and weaken India.

-The collapse of a nuclear armed state is a global nightmare, with no government to keep those weapons safe and command and control not working any more, many different nations would be in full blown panic mode. It would be one thing that no one wants and would be something many nations would work together to avoid.
 
I wonder why India is not responding.
My completely speculative theory is that either the bigger siblings are increasing the pressure to start communication, or they are biding their time. Maybe both?
 
Still holding steady on the idea India wants to bleed Pakistan dry until the house of cards fall.

But I am still hoping they take the off ramp Pakistan is so desperately waving in Indias face. Besides the small border skimirshes along LoC which may even be out of Pakistan hands given how their military works... so will see. Big hopes for a real CF.

BUT
I am not naive either and not banking on that hope. Still a whole ton that can go wrong or flat out India playing the long game to crush the house of cards in Pakistan. Only time will tell...
 
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This is what I'm waiting for. A huge part of my feelings on dropping the alert level hinges on the results of this meeting.
Indeed. But it's not over until that fat lady sings. Will see... high hopes. But not naive to think things won't fail either. A whole ton can still go wrong before those talks or after...
 
Indeed. But it's not over until that fat lady sings. Will see... high hopes. But not naive to think things won't fail either. A whole ton can still go wrong before those talks or after...
True, but DEFCON 3 isn't designed to be maintained indefinitely.
 
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