UA-RU-NATO War | Discussions | Jun. 1st/Sep. 13th 2025

[DEFCON Warning System]

That so? Then what were those Soviet tank divisions doing in East Germany during the Cold War? What about all those maps on https://www.nato.int/cps/fr/natohq/declassified_138298.htm ?

The maps you linked to are NATOs theory as to how a possible Soviet invasion could work out. They even say that. "Possible Soviet Campaign..."

Or will you argue that, well, the Soviet Union may have wanted to militarily conquer Europe, but Russia is not at all like that, and has no such plans?

I am saying that Russia has no plans to move on Europe to conquer it. Though they may like the idea of getting those buffer nations back. So Ukraine needs to watch out. Any former Soviet State should keep an eye on Russia. Not France. Not Italy. Not Germany. Russia may like the idea of having Finland, but they would be crazy to try. Even Putin is not that insane.

 

[Deleted account]

The maps you linked to are NATOs theory as to how a possible Soviet invasion could work out. They even say that. "Possible Soviet Campaign..."

You appear to be suggesting that NATO was just being paranoid and that the Soviets had no such plans.

Why even have spies, satellites and think tanks - they should just ask you...

I am saying that Russia has no plans to move on Europe to conquer it. Though they may like the idea of getting those buffer nations back. So Ukraine needs to watch out. Any former Soviet State should keep an eye on Russia. Not France. Not Italy. Not Germany. Russia may like the idea of having Finland, but they would be crazy to try. Even Putin is not that insane.

Ahh, okay, so now "Europe" equals "France, Italy and Germany". I get it. TBH, kind of a common attitude among Americans...

See? Just redefine what is meant by "Europe" and you win again.

Also, you're still wrong. Russia wants those countries too.

 

[NuclearID]

Woof.

 

[Sentry]

Time out, getting heated. Take a moment to breathe and then come back!

 

[Deleted account]

Woof.

Felt like shooting some fish in a barrel today... But I need to leave the office now, so I suppose that's it for the time being.

 

[Spyglass]

Felt like shooting some fish in a barrel today... But I need to leave the office now, so I suppose that's it for the time being.

20 minutes too late for the fireworks. Damn!

 

[Snowfall]

That so? Then what were those Soviet tank divisions doing in East Germany during the Cold War? What about all those maps on https://www.nato.int/cps/fr/natohq/declassified_138298.htm ? Or will you argue that, well, the Soviet Union may have wanted to militarily conquer Europe, but Russia is not at all like that, and has no such plans?

The same reason the U.S. had plans to invade Canada during the Cold War, contingency. Just because you have a military near your border doesn’t inherently mean you want to invade everyone around you. The Cold War was a war over influence more than physical territory. Also all the maps you listed were routes NATO thought the Soviet Union could take, not ones the Soviet Union actually planned on taking. The biggest weapon in the Cold War is paranoia hence why the chance of a miscalculation was so high.

 

[Publius]

That so? Then what were those Soviet tank divisions doing in East Germany during the Cold War? What about all those maps on https://www.nato.int/cps/fr/natohq/declassified_138298.htm ? Or will you argue that, well, the Soviet Union may have wanted to militarily conquer Europe, but Russia is not at all like that, and has no such plans?

And yeesss the Soviet war threat on Europe was real. But Putin invading Europe today? Right Putin’s tanks couldn’t even roll up Ukraine. And he going to conquer all of Europe.
Can we please leave the I’m pissing my pants hyperbole to social media

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

You appear to be suggesting that NATO was just being paranoid and that the Soviets had no such plans.

Back in the 50's? They weren't being paranoid at all.

Also, you're still wrong. Russia wants those countries too.

I disagree.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Any former Soviet State should keep an eye on Russia. Not France. Not Italy. Not Germany. Russia may like the idea of having Finland, but they would be crazy to try. Even Putin is not that insane.

Those post Soviet states you mention all conveniently land on the NATO alliance, so while France Italy nor Germany might not have to worry about a direct invasion from Russia, they would be drawn to collectively defend those post soviet states in NATO. Which obviously would lead to a wider war between Europe and Russia. And if that's on the table, you can bet Putin would be foaming at the mouth to occupy Europe, Next to impossible sure, But trying to gauge the sanity levels of someone who has so blatantly shown that they do not care for the wellbeing of anyone but himself, is not really a good idea. He's a loose cannon, and he knows that image helps him abroad. Not so much domestically, but it definitely allows people to cozy up to the idea that Putin isn't batshit insane.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Those post Soviet states you mention all conveniently land on the NATO alliance, so while France Italy nor Germany might not have to worry about a direct invasion from Russia, they would be drawn to collectively defend those post soviet states in NATO. Which obviously would lead to a wider war between Europe and Russia. And if that's on the table, you can bet Putin would be foaming at the mouth to occupy Europe, Next to impossible sure, But trying to gauge the sanity levels of someone who has so blatantly shown that they do not care for the wellbeing of anyone but himself, is not really a good idea. He's a loose cannon, and he knows that image helps him abroad. Not so much domestically, but it definitely allows people to cozy up to the idea that Putin isn't batshit insane.

You say they shouldn't be keeping an eye on Russia, Why is this? Should they instead just turn a blind eye to the guerilla campaign being waged in Europe by Cyber criminals and thugs state sanctioned by the FSB? Or Corrupt dealings that have led to the stranglehold that Russia has on Central Europes LNG? These are gray zone issues. Just like the land bridge between Crimea and Russia was a gray zone issue. Parroted by Russian media and polyglots to feign it as political issues, until those gray issues start to transform from grumbling negative sentiment from the Russian population, to full blown war fervour. So I'd argue that while Russia has scoffed at occupying Europe and comes off as just another economically predatory country heavily reliant on exports, 3-4 years from now in a full wartime economy with troops on NATO borders again, Rhetoric can change. Extremely fast sometimes when dealing with Putin especially.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Intelligence officials worry a sabotage campaign blamed on Russia is growing more dangerous

European intelligence officials say they’re worried the risk of serious injury or even death is rising in a campaign of sabotage blamed on Russia as untrained saboteurs set fires, plant explosives or build bombs.

apnews.com

Russia’s Shadow War Against the West

Russia is conducting a violent and escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion against European and U.S. targets in Europe led by Russian military intelligence, according to a new CSIS database. The number of Russian attacks nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024.

www.csis.org

 

[Publius]

Those post Soviet states you mention all conveniently land on the NATO alliance, so while France Italy nor Germany might not have to worry about a direct invasion from Russia, they would be drawn to collectively defend those post soviet states in NATO. Which obviously would lead to a wider war between Europe and Russia. And if that's on the table, you can bet Putin would be foaming at the mouth to occupy Europe, Next to impossible sure, But trying to gauge the sanity levels of someone who has so blatantly shown that they do not care for the wellbeing of anyone but himself, is not really a good idea. He's a loose cannon, and he knows that image helps him abroad. Not so much domestically, but it definitely allows people to cozy up to the idea that Putin isn't batshit insane.

He’s not a loose cannon. He very calculatedly played Bush over Georgia, used the Chechens against the Chechens.
Rolled into Crimean when the west had a weak leader “who owed him one”. Waited till another weak leader was in place in the west to invade Ukraine completely.

And there he miscalculated, almost.
Remember how all the major nato leaders jumped on the bandwagon inviting Zelinski to flee Ukraine and seek safety in the west.
Most of NATO’s leaders never planned on having to help Ukraine militarily in an extended conflict. They expected Ukrainian to fall while they sent surplus weapons and spoke platitudes.
This is why NaTO’s response to the invasion of Ukraine has been reactionary at best from the very beginning. With never once having a coherent plan of driving Russia from Ukraine.

So while we might think Putin is crazy he’s not. He is at this point in his life and status of his nation what I would call, not risk averse. But that does not make him crazy.

Want to see Putin try and roll up more Eastern European nations. Go back to pre 2016 nato nation defense budgets.
Go back to the Obama Clinton Reset roulette button. Go back to Obama rolling back missile defense in Europe in 2009. All while Putin was developing and testing IRBM and ground launched cruise missiles.
So if your going to complain about nato missteps or failures at least look to the real culprits.

(Note PGriffin, parting comment not directed at you)

 

[Publius]

You say they shouldn't be keeping an eye on Russia, Why is this? Should they instead just turn a blind eye to the guerilla campaign being waged in Europe by Cyber criminals and thugs state sanctioned by the FSB? Or Corrupt dealings that have led to the stranglehold that Russia has on Central Europes LNG? These are gray zone issues. Just like the land bridge between Crimea and Russia was a gray zone issue. Parroted by Russian media and polyglots to feign it as political issues, until those gray issues start to transform from grumbling negative sentiment from the Russian population, to full blown war fervour. So I'd argue that while Russia has scoffed at occupying Europe and comes off as just another economically predatory country heavily reliant on exports, 3-4 years from now in a full wartime economy with troops on NATO borders again, Rhetoric can change. Extremely fast sometimes when dealing with Putin especially.

Rhetoric can change to action, and it changes when the opposition has weak leadership who refused to force the issue of defense spending deficiencies out of most of Europe. Who caves on military technology deployments or does nothing when past rhetoric leads to actual military invasions or little green men on the ground.

 

[Publius]

Intelligence officials worry a sabotage campaign blamed on Russia is growing more dangerous

European intelligence officials say they’re worried the risk of serious injury or even death is rising in a campaign of sabotage blamed on Russia as untrained saboteurs set fires, plant explosives or build bombs.

apnews.com

Russia’s Shadow War Against the West

Russia is conducting a violent and escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion against European and U.S. targets in Europe led by Russian military intelligence, according to a new CSIS database. The number of Russian attacks nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024.

www.csis.org

Well yeah, there is a little war going on and nato is pouring finances and weapons into Russias adversary.
Why would we be surprised at this.


This is nation state conflict and war. You EXPECT it and work to counter yet.

 

[Araxen]

Kremlin: Western troops deployed on Ukrainian land Will be rejected.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1957510922152427764

No surprise there. He would forced to honor any deal then. We all know he will go back on whatever deal is made.

 

[Sentry]

Russia could hit a military base say OOPS and nothing would happen at this point.
First it was entering the Romanian border, then it was crashing on Romanian soil, then it was going into Polish airspace and an incident which was kept under wraps, and now we got a drone going down 80km from Warsaw and blowing up.

 

[Publius]

Russia could hit a military base say OOPS and nothing would happen at this point.
First it was entering the Romanian border, then it was crashing on Romanian soil, then it was going into Polish airspace and an incident which was kept under wraps, and now we got a drone going down 80km from Warsaw and blowing up.

Well given that the US accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade while suppressing the fighting there. Some leeway in combat missions might be tolerated. Before we contemplate escalating the whole thing.

 

[Sentry]

Well given that the US accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade while suppressing the fighting there. Some leeway in combat missions might be tolerated. Before we contemplate escalating the whole thing.

At a point one starts to think if Russia is taking advantage of that leeway.

 

[Sentry]

Well given that the US accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade while suppressing the fighting there. Some leeway in combat missions might be tolerated. Before we contemplate escalating the whole thing.

ALSO, during that event, Clinton personally came out and apologised for it. An official investigation was also launched with official apologies and claims that it wasn't deliberate. Do you see Putin apologising for this?