UA-RU-NATO War | Discussions | Jun. 1st/Sep. 13th 2025

[Peter Griffin]

Doesn't nessecarily have to be a deliberate testing tactic either. Timing is very interesting, but if Russia wants to oversaturate Ukraine's airspace as much as possible, more drones are bound to escape the more drones they lob at Ukraine, and the heightened security around Poland's border makes them want to shoot them down instead of not noticing until it might be too late and it causes damage

If they are taking the risk that comes with attacking western Ukraine, knowing some will explode in Poland, is that not indirectly testing our resolve? Like a happy accident for them, and one that they can seemingly manufacture when things aren't going their way. I don't know, seems like they are doing this on purpose and if not then using plausible deniability. I have a feeling we will see more of these drones start coming across border zones regardless in the near future...

 

[Peter Griffin]

A no fly zone in western Ukraine is more likely than NATO taking out launchers in Russia.

I doubt a country-wide no fly zone would be considered due to the implication of NATO shooting down manned Russian aircraft.

Where is EUCOM in all this?

 

[Snowfall]

A no fly zone in western Ukraine is more likely than NATO taking out launchers in Russia.

I doubt a country-wide no fly zone would be considered due to the implication of NATO shooting down manned Russian aircraft.

Where is EUCOM in all this?

my guess is NATO will have an Article 4 meeting tomorrow, and nothing but a sternly worded letter will come of it. At most I can see a commitment to reinforce air defense infrastructure in Poland, but there’s zero chance in hell NATO enacts even a partial no fly zone in Ukraine after this.

 

[Sentry]

Doesn't nessecarily have to be a deliberate testing tactic either. Timing is very interesting, but if Russia wants to oversaturate Ukraine's airspace as much as possible, more drones are bound to escape the more drones they lob at Ukraine, and the heightened security around Poland's border makes them want to shoot them down instead of not noticing until it might be too late and it causes damage.

I disagree. This many drones deep inside Polish airspace shows clear intent with zero plausible deniability.

 

[Publius]

It's time to threaten to take out the source of where they are taking off from if any further incursions happen.

I would agree if it continued a nato limited strike on “accidents” would be called for

 

[Publius]

I disagree. This many drones deep inside Polish airspace shows clear intent with zero plausible deniability.

Possible but we are talking about large numbers of at this point not necessarily top tier guided cruise missiles. And if Russia as I’ve seen reported is striking more frequently in western Ukraine, this only raises the risk of accidents. Either way if it persists a limited strike on launch facility might be called for

 

[Charmender]

Useless condemnation statement is incoming.
Nothing more, there's been no casualty, nor proven threat to civilians.
The statements only refer to "potential threats".
Possibly a threat to hit the places from where eventual future drones are launched.

Forget about no fly zones...USA (Trump) runs NATO, remember about this.

 

[Snowfall]

Lithuanian's FM:

In a post on X, Budrys says that air defences must be reinforced and that Nato must respond with capabilities “not just concerns”.

The reality is clear: as long as Putin is allowed to continue waging his bloody war against #Ukraine, no country - not even within NATO - is safe. Sanctions must strike at the heart of the Kremlin’s war economy. Putin will not stop unless we stop him.

Poland dismisses Russia’s claim drone incursion was unintentional as Ukraine calls for joint European air defence system – as it happened

Poland’s deputy PM said Russian drones ‘did not veer off course’ but deliberately targeted Poland; Zelenskyy says Europe needs effective air shield

www.theguardian.com

What pisses me off the most about statements like this, is there is so much room for sanctions that Europe is still unwilling to take. It took 10 drones at once before they were even willing to shoot the things down. It also doesn’t help when a good portion of them are still buying Russian oil and fertilizer. I don’t know what it’s going to take for them to finally decide enough is enough, seize Russian assets, take any and all restrictions off weapons supplied to Ukraine, and implement secondary sanctions on any countries that chose to help Russia fund their endeavors.

 

[Sentry]

Possible but we are talking about large numbers of at this point not necessarily top tier guided cruise missiles. And if Russia as I’ve seen reported is striking more frequently in western Ukraine, this only raises the risk of accidents. Either way if it persists a limited strike on launch facility might be called for

The drones entered on purpose and were circling back to hit Ukraine after going for a joyride in Polish airspace. There is no plausible deniability left, IMO.

 

[Charmender]

The drones entered on purpose and were circling back to hit Ukraine after going for a joyride in Polish airspace. There is no plausible deniability left, IMO.

It's obvious that the airspace violation is voluntary.
It's impossible to prove that these drones posed a real threat, or were meant to attack Poland.

 

[Charmender]

What pisses me off the most about statements like this, is there is so much room for sanctions that Europe is still unwilling to take. It took 10 drones at once before they were even willing to shoot the things down. It also doesn’t help when a good portion of them are still buying Russian oil and fertilizer. I don’t know what it’s going to take for them to finally decide enough is enough, seize Russian assets, take any and all restrictions off weapons supplied to Ukraine, and implement secondary sanctions on any countries that chose to help Russia fund their endeavors.

Sanctions need unanimity.
Fico and Orban will never agree on anything that disrupts their supply of russian oil.

 

[Snowfall]

Sanctions need unanimity.
Fico and Orban will never agree on anything that disrupts their supply of russian oil.

My first move would be the removal of both of them from the EU and NATO if they refuse to agree to sanctions.

 

[Snowfall]

It's obvious that the airspace violation is voluntary.
It's impossible to prove that these drones posed a real threat, or were meant to attack Poland.

I’m gonna bet there was no actual threat to targets on the ground. Putin wants to break NATO from the inside not fight it. This is the stuff that works because now the leaders of NATO are going to go and argue what to do and settle on a strongly worded letter.

 

[Sentry]

I’m gonna bet there was no actual threat to targets on the ground. Putin wants to break NATO from the inside not fight it. This is the stuff that works because now the leaders of NATO are going to go and argue what to do and settle on a strongly worded letter.

There was no threat because Putin didn’t intend for them to strike Poland. Fact being that they were inside Polish airspace and could have inflicted damage - it was possible but didn’t happen because Russia didn’t want to yet.

 

[Charmender]

There was no threat because Putin didn’t intend for them to strike Poland. Fact being that they were inside Polish airspace and could have inflicted damage - it was possible but didn’t happen because Russia didn’t want to yet.

That's why nothing will happen as usual.
As Snowfall said Putin doesn't want to fight NATO, wants to break it from the inside.
As there was no real direct threat, nor attack, there's no room for article 5 driven actions...possibly for article 4, but Poland has its own interest in managing the situation autonomously.

 

[Snowfall]

That's why nothing will happen as usual.
As Snowfall said Putin doesn't want to fight NATO, wants to break it from the inside.
As there was no real direct threat, nor attack, there's no room for article 5 driven actions...possibly for article 4, but Poland has its own interest in managing the situation autonomously.

Oh if I’m Poland I’m 1000% invoking article 4. This is a situation it was designed for.

 

[Snowfall]

There was no threat because Putin didn’t intend for them to strike Poland. Fact being that they were inside Polish airspace and could have inflicted damage - it was possible but didn’t happen because Russia didn’t want to yet.

What scares me more than anything is the possibility of miscalculation. Obviously NATO is pretty level headed, but in the heat of the moment people make mistakes.

 

[Sentry]

What scares me more than anything is the possibility of miscalculation. Obviously NATO is pretty level headed, but in the heat of the moment people make mistakes.

This is all coordinated. It is no coincidence that 10+ drones ALL malfunction and fly into NATO airspace. Not only that but this happens on the same day as Zapad-2025 Russia-Belarus exercises near the Polish border.

 

[Charmender]

This is all coordinated. It is no coincidence that 10+ drones ALL malfunction and fly into NATO airspace. Not only that but this happens on the same day as Zapad-2025 Russia-Belarus exercises near the Polish border.

No one has ever said that.

 

[Snowfall]

This is all coordinated. It is no coincidence that 10+ drones ALL malfunction and fly into NATO airspace. Not only that but this happens on the same day as Zapad-2025 Russia-Belarus exercises near the Polish border.

Oh for sure it’s coordinated, I’m saying every time something like this happens everyone gets a bit more trigger happy, that’s what scares me.