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UA-RU-NATO | Discussions | Sep. 13th/25th 2025

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7gtz said:
I think people don’t understand how bad this was even though it was “just” 12 minutes. That is consequential. If the MIGs were packing Kinzhal missiles, they would’ve been able to strike say Ramstein Air Base or Berlin in under 8 minutes.
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That can be done from Kaliningrad.
The today's incident, really adds nothing from the military point of view.
 
7gtz said:
I think people don’t understand how bad this was even though it was “just” 12 minutes. That is consequential. If the MIGs were packing Kinzhal missiles, they would’ve been able to strike say Ramstein Air Base or Berlin in under 8 minutes.
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It sounds like the Finnish Air Force was monitoring before the Italian Air Force responded.
 
@Snowfall @Charmender This is exactly what Russia wants - normalising Russian incursions into NATO airspace, with drones, and now manned fighter jets for measurable durations.
They began with minor singular drone incursions that gave them genuine plausible deniability -> moved to larger batches of drones -> Poland incident -> now manned Russian fighter jets entering NATO airspace.

How would Russia react if NATO fighter jets were headed towards St Petersburg in Russian airspace?
 
Charmender said:
I mean the whole EU has huge if not endless financing capabilities to finance huge investments on weapons.
The main issue is that until the EU does not abandon their budgetary rules (due to the resistance of Austria, Germany and Netherlands) this will never happen.
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The EU has vast arguably near limitless capacity to finance large scale weapons investments. Its sadly locked away and the Europeans only have them to hold responsible for their predicament in captial/funding.

👉 That capacity is constrained because Europe refuses to unite under a true Federal Government.

👉 Without a federal fiscal European Union state, the EU can’t borrow at scale, cannot issue its own bonds broadly, or lift the financial constraints individual nations face.

HOWEVER, there is real/true momentum in building a federal Europe i.e the “United States of Europe.”. Even legislation being laid for it. This shift will unlock extraordinary capital through joint borrowing and common bonds, solving defense spending needs and then some. If and only if Europe finally unites under one unified state like US.

Highly recommend watching:

So sadly until Europe does the obvious right next step and unite under a single state to face their common challenges and enemies... or they are all doomed. They either will unite or die/fade out. Their choice. 🤷‍♂️
 
The problem is, NATO has been focusing on deterring Russia from violating NATO airspace. There needs to be a shift as "deterrence" has failed. We can only hope that something changes during the Article 4 meeting.

There is also a very real risk of either a NATO or Russia aircraft going beyond RoE and taking defensive measures.
 
7gtz said:
@Snowfall @Charmender This is exactly what Russia wants - normalising Russian incursions into NATO airspace, with drones, and now manned fighter jets for measurable durations.
They began with minor singular drone incursions that gave them genuine plausible deniability -> moved to larger batches of drones -> Poland incident -> now manned Russian fighter jets entering NATO airspace.

How would Russia react if NATO fighter jets were headed towards St Petersburg in Russian airspace?
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Honestly I don’t consider this fighter incident any different than things that have happened in the past. This is the fourth time this has happened this year, and quite honestly had it not been for the drone incident the media wouldn’t even be reporting it. The drone incident in my opinion they should respond by providing Ukraine long range missiles with the whole purpose of them being used to strike Russias drone factories.
 
Charmender said:
That can be done from Kaliningrad.
The today's incident, really adds nothing from the military point of view.
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Russia has never circled in a portion of Estonian airspace near Tallinn for 12 minutes with 3 fighters while 2 other jets buzz a Polish oil platform before while other aircraft pace around NATO airspace in the Baltics.
 
No one wants war, but Russia is really setting itself up to be shot down over a NATO country. This seems to be almost unavoidable now, and as some has said before, sometimes, countries like Russia, only understand force.
 
7gtz said:
No one wants war, but Russia is really setting itself up to be shot down over a NATO country. This seems to be almost unavoidable now, and as some has said before, sometimes, countries like Russia, only understand force.
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I think what Russia wants is to sow discomfort in NATO countries and the populations in them to lose trust in NATO. Personally I think NATO is better off responding to these provocations with a level head in the manner they are now.
 
Snowfall said:
I think what Russia wants is to sow discomfort in NATO countries and the populations in them to lose trust in NATO. Personally I think NATO is better off responding to these provocations with a level head in the manner they are now.
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How exactly has NATO responded except by writing strongly worded letters?
 
***EXCERPT***
The Cold War is back. We had many discussions about whether USAREUR-AF is a warfighting headquarters; the consensus is that, while it hasn’t been for the past thirty-five years, it is transitioning back to that role. The Russian threat is real. Russia has more than two hundred brigades fighting in Ukraine today, perhaps double the number of Ukrainian brigades in the fight. NATO is badly overmatched, able to provide fewer than one hundred brigades today although it plans to build to 132.

Russia is not just larger; it is gaining experience and learning from its conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, despite heavy losses, Moscow is reconstituting remarkably fast. For example, Russia is recruiting approximately one thousand soldiers per day. Meanwhile, its tank production, especially of the modern T-90 model, has been increasing. Estimates suggest Russia produced about 140–180 T-90M units in 2023, possibly exceeding 200 per year in 2024, with some sources projecting as many as 280–300 annually.
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mwi.westpoint.edu

Dispatch from Wiesbaden: Building Readiness in the Face of Russian Aggression - Modern War Institute

The headquarters of US Army Europe and Africa (USAREUR-AF) is at Clay Kaserne in western Germany, not far from Frankfurt and situated near the mighty Rhine River. The area has changed hands often; during the Allied occupation of the Rhineland after World War I, it was controlled by the French...
mwi.westpoint.edu mwi.westpoint.edu
 
Snowfall said:
They shot down multiple of the drones over Poland. They have also not flown drones into Poland since they announced the actions.
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Yes they have. Minor incursions reported yesterday. No action taken (drones only grazed PL airspace, then returned to Belarus).
 
7gtz said:
No one wants war, but Russia is really setting itself up to be shot down over a NATO country. This seems to be almost unavoidable now, and as some has said before, sometimes, countries like Russia, only understand force.
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I can imagine it'll come to that eventually, and it's obvious to the Kremlin as well. The question therefore becomes: what does Russia have riding on the back of this?
 
DarkNoon said:
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Terrible decision.

President Trump is about to provide Erdogan’s Muslim Brotherhood regime our F-35s.

Islamists and Russian freinds should not fly America’s most advanced fighter jets.

We should be kicking them out of NATO instead of rewarding them. I wonder if anything we get out of this...
 
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