Escalating European Crisis | Sep. 25th/Oct. 11th | Discussions

[Torch]

Tell that to Russians who can’t buy gasoline right now or to the ones standing in lines hundreds deep for their rationed fill ups, limited per visit/day.

Sure, gasoline doesn’t run tanks. But it runs the economy. And Ukraine’s been hitting a refinery almost every day, it’s definitely biting.

Even Moscow, all the way to Crimean officials are out telling Russian residents to stay calm because they can’t get gas to drive their cars or run other machines that run on gas.

Hell, they (Russia) had to stop selling their gasoline to everyone and start importing from Belarus. LMAO!

Still not offsetting enough by importing from Belarus clearly, with the major fuel shortages across Russia right now.

People like you and I can’t get gas over there. The military is fine and the government leadership is fine. Ukraines range and effect of their drones is woeful to the long term stability of Russia. Ukraine can’t even hold all of Russia in Europe at risk, let alone our neighbors way out east in Asia.

Besides in that video the hit was ineffective. Not all hits are, but that one was. They need Himars without a geo lock. They need Tomahawks. And they need it 2 years ago.

 

[NuclearID]

NOTE: For anyone wondering how Ukraine can hit an oil refinery almost every day and why Russia doesn’t stop it?

The answer’s simple. Russia is huge, its refineries are spread all over, and air-defense assets are limited.

You can’t ring every plant with S-300/400 or Pantsir/Tor and keep them alert 24/7. Most facilities are lightly covered or uncovered, so Ukraine rotates targets and gets leaks through. One successful hit can idle a refinery for weeks.

So you see. Its a losing game for Putin. And the results are already visibly showing. Greatly.

 

[Torch]

@Torch Have you not seen my reports? Over the last couple of weeks I’ve posted videos from across Russia showing very long lines for rationed gasoline. Russian officials are on TV asking people to stay calm because many stations are closing as rationing isn’t working.

Also, Putin imposed price caps on gasoline, which is making the shortages WAY worse, not better.

And again a reminder that Russia now importing gasoline from Belarus has appeared to do absolutely nothing to quell the shortages.

Putin running out of options. China imports gasoline, doesn't export. So not sure where Putin is going to get his gasoline to keep the country and people running/driving soon. Cracks, big ones, already appearing.

Not going to happen. Not from small drone strikes. Everything helps to be sure but Russia has many refineries well beyond Ukraines range.

Besides I not against Ukraine. They need more. Farther. Faster and with a much bigger boom! I would love to see cbu’s spat out over every square meter of a refinery

 

[NuclearID]

Not going to happen.

It’s not hypothetical, it’s happening now.

Weeks of footage from across Russia, long queues and rationing at gas stations.

Regional officials on TV urging calm as stations close when supply runs out.

The Kremlin halted gasoline exports to everyone, officially acknowledging the squeeze.

If you’ve got counter evidence, post it. Otherwise “not going to happen” is just wishful thinking against publicly available facts that I have already posted through the past couple of weeks.

 

[Snowfall]

Not going to happen. Not from small drone strikes. Everything helps to be sure but Russia has many refineries well beyond Ukraines range.

Besides I not against Ukraine. They need more. Farther. Faster and with a much bigger boom! I would love to see cbu’s spat out over every square meter of a refinery

You don’t have to hit all of them. Everytime a refinery is taken down they have to come up with the parts to fix it, over time they burn through more and more of this stockpile that’s not easily replaced. Now let’s say there’s a storm in the far east of Russia that takes out a refinery, normally not a huge deal, but if you don’t have the parts to fix it since you’ve been dedicating those parts towards repairing the refineries in the west you now have a problem. That’s the Ukranian’s strategy, not a quick blow but death by a thousand cuts.

 

[peterould]

Tell that to Russians who can’t buy gasoline right now or to the ones standing in lines hundreds deep for their rationed fill ups, limited per visit/day.

Sure, gasoline doesn’t run tanks. But it runs the economy. And Ukraine’s been hitting a refinery almost every day, it’s definitely biting.

Even Moscow, all the way to Crimean officials are out telling Russian residents to stay calm because they can’t get gas to drive their cars or run other machines that run on gas.

Hell, they (Russia) had to stop selling their gasoline to everyone and start importing from Belarus. LOL!

Still not offsetting enough by importing from Belarus clearly, with the major fuel shortages across Russia right now.

I'm with Darknoon on this - the situation could go downhill for Putin very quickly. The Wagner coup showed how they had very little military control over huge swathes of the country, and massive economic pressures could snowball rapidly into an uprising.

 

[NuclearID]

I'm with Darknoon on this - the situation could go downhill for Putin very quickly. The Wagner coup showed how they had very little military control over huge swathes of the country, and massive economic pressures could snowball rapidly into an uprising.

I didn’t say that, and I don’t think a collapse is likely.

It is not about agreeing with me. I am just simply stating the facts/reports. I was laying out clearly a ongoing gasoline shortage, that is happening, and real pressure is being asserted on Putin because of it.

From my understanding Torch was unaware of this. Wanted to make sure he was made aware.

What I’m pointing out is real, visible pressure on ordinary Russians from the ongoing gasoline shortages across the country.

That kind of pressure can push Putin to escalate. That’s my concern, not regime or front-line collapse. Just clarifying.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Sure, gasoline doesn’t run tanks.

Yeah it does.

 

[NuclearID]

Yeah it does.

Russian tanks, if not all/most tanks, run on diesel... Which there is no diesel shortage in Russia. Just a gasoline shortage.

Also farming tractors and equipment run on diesel. So this gasoline shortage won't hurt Russias ability to grow food. FYI.

Still. This is and will continue to hurt ordinary Russians, greatly. How long will Putin hold out before he ups his game/escalation?

 

[Deleted account]

Yeah it does.

Pretty much all tanks (as well as all other combat vehicles) run on diesel.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Russian tanks, if not all/most tanks, run on diesel... Which there is no diesel shortage in Russia. Just a gasoline shortage.

My mistake. I just lump gas and diesel together.

 

[Snowfall]

How long will Putin hold out before he ups his game/escalation?

He already is by the increase in attacks against Ukrainian gas, power, and critical infrastructure.

 

[NuclearID]

He already is by the increase in attacks against Ukrainian gas, power, and critical infrastructure.

I was thinking elsewhere besides Ukraine. Short of dropping a nuke on Ukraine. Kinda hard for Putin to raise the escalation in Ukraine or do things he already hasn't... sadly...

 

[Torch]

It’s not hypothetical, it’s happening now.

Weeks of footage from across Russia, long queues and rationing at gas stations.

Regional officials on TV urging calm as stations close when supply runs out.

The Kremlin halted gasoline exports to everyone, officially acknowledging the squeeze.

If you’ve got counter evidence, post it. Otherwise “not going to happen” is just wishful thinking against publicly available facts that I have already posted through the past couple of weeks.

I do not believe, from what I have read, that Russia is anywhere near a catastrophic collapse.

Russia is experiencing gasoline shortages of a regional nature.

These hits by Ukraine drones are not going to crush Russias 2.1 trillion GDP even if you use Ukrainians governments, highly optimistic billion+ damage this year. With China and India openly disregarding sanctions the Russian economy is not going to collapse, based on these numbers.

Russia needs to be hit much much harder, and the hits need to be widespread across the entire country. Unfortunately, the shock of doing this to the Russian system, and to the Russian psyche who believe they are above being injured in their war, will possibly lead them into rash decisions.

We are at Loggerheads. In the absence of new data and or events I have nothing left to add here.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I was thinking elsewhere besides Ukraine. Short of dropping a nuke on Ukraine. Kinda hard for Putin to raise the escalation in Ukraine or do things he already hasn't... sadly...

By sending drones into NATO countries.

 

[Torch]

That kind of pressure can push Putin to escalate. That’s my concern, not regime or front-line collapse. Just clarifying.

 

[NuclearID]

Russia catastrophic collapse.

I did not say that, nor believe that will happen.

Your fighting a non-existent argument. Not arguing that. I do not believe they will collapse.

HOWEVER there is a major gasoline shortage effecting most of Russia right now.

You keep misunderstanding me entirly.......

To say gasoline shortages are not happening or pressure on the Russian people is not happening right now is totally ignoring reality and facts. That is all I am saying.

NOT saying they are going to collapse... NOR never said that ANYWHERE in this thread. Quite the opposite in fact.

How much more clearer can I possibly get! Please go back and actually read my posts. Getting kinda insulted here.

 

[NuclearID]

By sending drones into NATO countries.

Sure. That's ongoing though. Was naturally talking about new escalations, given new pressures put on Putins Russia.

The drone stuff was happening before this gasoline shortage became full fledged.

 

[RiffRaff]

Is it possible there’s a new warhead design that simulation alone can’t fully validate, something that would require a real world test to prove it works?

Unlikely for the US. The next warhead design is just a modification of the W87 currently used on Minuteman missiles. Nothing that would require an active test.

Nuclear weapons are expensive. If this is a next-gen warhead, you’d want absolute confidence before spending billions.

How sure can we be that a brand new design can be qualified without any live testing and be 100% reliable in the field?

So maybe the military is developing a warhead we don’t know about that needs an underground shot. That could explain why rhetoric on both sides, U.S. and Russia, keeps softening people up to the idea of testing.

The only way I can see this happening is if someone has come up with new fissile material besides uranium and plutonium or a new method of achieving critical mass for fission or creating a fusion reaction without a fission primary trigger. We are at least a century away from a functional matter/antimatter bomb, so that's not even in the pipeline yet. I'm not sure what else would require live testing.

 

[RiffRaff]

Not going to happen. Not from small drone strikes. Everything helps to be sure but Russia has many refineries well beyond Ukraines range.

Besides I not against Ukraine. They need more. Farther. Faster and with a much bigger boom! I would love to see cbu’s spat out over every square meter of a refinery

Dude, a single hurricane crippled petroleum production in the US resulting in $5/gallon gasoline, lines at gas stations, and closed gas stations. It's not that difficult to interfere with a country's refinery production.