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Escalating European Crisis | Sep. 25th/Oct. 11th | Discussions

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DarkNoon said:
Well Trump has been mentioning nuclear testing for awhile now. But the mentioning of it from officials is definitely spiking. Making me wonder if US/Trump will actually resume testing. 🤔
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Is it possible there’s a new warhead design that simulation alone can’t fully validate, something that would require a real world test to prove it works?

Nuclear weapons are expensive. If this is a next-gen warhead, you’d want absolute confidence before spending billions.

How sure can we be that a brand new design can be qualified without any live testing and be 100% reliable in the field?

So maybe the military is developing a warhead we don’t know about that needs an underground shot. That could explain why rhetoric on both sides, U.S. and Russia, keeps softening people up to the idea of testing.
 
DarkNoon said:
Is it possible there’s a new warhead design that simulation alone can’t fully validate, something that would require a real world test to prove it works?

Nuclear weapons are expensive. If this is a next-gen warhead, you’d want absolute confidence before spending billions.

How sure can we be that a brand new design can be qualified without any live testing and be 100% reliable in the field?

So maybe the military is developing a warhead we don’t know about that needs an underground shot. That could explain why rhetoric on both sides, U.S. and Russia, keeps softening people up to the idea of testing.
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I’m gonna guess it’s just the Russian government spewing bullshit again. I remember a couple years ago hearing activity increased at Russian testing sites and nothing ever materialized from it. If anything I’m guessing this a pressure tactic on Trump to launch new-START negotiations.
 
DarkNoon said:
Not much we could do beyond what we already do. Same as when Russia paid bounties in Afghanistan on US soldiers, or the many other times the Soviets/Russians armed groups fighting us.

Arming an enemy’s enemy is as old as statecraft. It isn’t an “act of war” by itself and never has been treated as one.

People talk like this is new. It isn’t. It raises tensions, sanctions, covert pushback, ect., but not open war between the principals at play.
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It’s not new but with world wide coms and social media it can be used as propaganda or to instill fear.

There is also the reality of nuclear escalation that is new. And with it no matter how bad it gets in Ukraine for Russia. Russia can always strike out with a nuclear strike.

Personally at this point it all just feels like propaganda or harassment operations throughout Europe like maybe drones.

But the modern delivery capabilities of nukes makes proclamations like this more effective
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
Re; German intelligence discussing a Russian attack on NATO. How long do you all think we have until that materializes? A week? A month? Year? We’d certainly seen signs of it happening, right? (troop buildup, equipment movement, etc). My fear is it completely taking us by surprise, waking up one morning to reports of Poland being attacked or something.
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Here is the constraint on this ever happening. With conventional weapons Russia can’t mount an effective attack or invasion on nato. Russia simply doesn’t have the conventional power to confront all of nato. So what does Putin due when nato planes start attacking infrastructure and military sites across Russia.
So if they do they face defeat by being driven back out of and nato nation.

So if they do then get your nuclear tinfoil hat on
 
Torch said:

Ukraine gives U.S. 200 targets for Tomahawk missiles in Russia:​


uawire.org

Ukraine gives U.S. 200 targets for Tomahawk missiles in Russia: range, launch options, and potential impact

U.S. President Donald Trump should already know which targets in Russia could be struck by Tomahawk missiles, a military analyst said. Ukraine handed over a list of potential targets a year ago, in the fall of 2024, shortly before the U.S. presidential election. The list includes Russian...
uawire.org uawire.org


The USA will have to give the missiles their mid-course updates and terminal updates.

Note pre launch requires huge data bases of the entire world’s Terran, constantly updated to be loaded as required into memory (actual pictures).
AFAIK this is from high altitude to 50’ and includes towers and transmission lines and electric wires.

🇺🇸IMHO the USA becomes a combatant the second the United States of America the Ukraine launches one. 🇷🇺
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Jack Broe keeps saying in his videos that the whole Tomahawk missiles thing is a bluff. JASSM's make more sense because they can be launched from F-16's. Tomahawks require training and couldn't be used right away.

 
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Araxen said:
Jack Broe keeps saying in his videos that the whole Tomahawk missiles thing is a bluff. JASSM's make more sense because they can be launched from F-16's. Tomahawks require training and couldn't be used right away.

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Could be. I would be surprised if the US wanted to risk the missiles use when the Russians have almost certainly recovered Tomahawks is part, pieces and pretty much whole. No real risk of losing our best long range asset for aircraft. But that’s just me. You may very well be correct and it is a far better and easier tool for the Ukraines to use. Still I betting Tomahawks as they are being loudly and publicly dragged out and about. It serves as notice to the Russians and might give them the gift of sanity. They couldn’t stop them on their best Paper Tiger PR days. Now shown as a near toothless one trick pony, they will get clobbered.

I am far, far more worried about what happens when the lights go out in half the country including the untouched middle. Oh and every Russian refinery in Europe and a shipload in Western Asia go poof.
I think we will find they feel wronged (even though they have done worse to the Ukraine that doesn’t matter) because they are special, they have many nuclear warheads most of which will fizz, at best (Open source the CIA). Now 1000 atomic bombs instead of 1000 Fussion Warheads hitting the US might sound lucky, but…..


This is somthing I lose sleep over. It’s 0200 here and that’s what’s going through my limited intellect and mind.
 
DarkNoon said:
A oil refinery a day, keeps the Russians at bay! Now this is truly funny stuff. 😆
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Pretty ineffective. Empty tanks or missed the tanks. 😞 I would be aiming for compressors. Tank are easy, cheap and simple to build. Russia floats in oil so the loss only matters very short term. Bu t compressor stations/Pumping stations for Oil, Gas, hydrocarbons, distillate etc are going to take engineering and time. Hit them in oil patches, pipeline stations, refineries, tanker load stations, ports, harbors, navy yards and any of the thousand petrochemical industries. One day they will run out of parts, and have to buy it from China and it will be crap, or they will buy it from India* who will happily bust the embargo, unmoved by the plight of the Ukrainian people.

( India🇮🇳 1st! 👍👍 Now that’s the way government is supposed to work for its people! It should help generate a positive cash flow by taking it from your neighbors. Once any government caries more about building a consensus and being a good partner in the Glopbal world then their people, that governments economy is a deadman walking)
 
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Torch said:
Pretty ineffective.
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Tell that to Russians who can’t buy gasoline right now or to the ones standing in lines hundreds deep for their rationed fill ups, limited per visit/day.

Sure, gasoline doesn’t run tanks. But it runs the economy. And Ukraine’s been hitting a refinery almost every day, it’s definitely biting.

Even Moscow, all the way to Crimean officials are out telling Russian residents to stay calm because they can’t get gas to drive their cars or run other machines that run on gas.

Hell, they (Russia) had to stop selling their gasoline to everyone and start importing from Belarus. LOL!

Still not offsetting enough by importing from Belarus clearly, with the major fuel shortages across Russia right now.
 
@Torch Have you not seen my reports? Over the last couple of weeks I’ve posted videos from across Russia showing very long lines for rationed gasoline. Russian officials are on TV asking people to stay calm because many stations are closing as rationing isn’t working.

Also, Putin imposed price caps on gasoline, which is making the shortages WAY worse, not better.

And again a reminder that Russia now importing gasoline from Belarus has appeared to do absolutely nothing to quell the shortages.

Putin running out of options. China imports gasoline, doesn't export. So not sure where Putin is going to get his gasoline to keep the country and people running/driving soon. Cracks, big ones, already appearing.
 
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DarkNoon said:
Tell that to Russians who can’t buy gasoline right now or to the ones standing in lines hundreds deep for their rationed fill ups, limited per visit/day.

Sure, gasoline doesn’t run tanks. But it runs the economy. And Ukraine’s been hitting a refinery almost every day, it’s definitely biting.

Even Moscow, all the way to Crimean officials are out telling Russian residents to stay calm because they can’t get gas to drive their cars or run other machines that run on gas.

Hell, they (Russia) had to stop selling their gasoline to everyone and start importing from Belarus. LMAO!

Still not offsetting enough by importing from Belarus clearly, with the major fuel shortages across Russia right now.
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People like you and I can’t get gas over there. The military is fine and the government leadership is fine. Ukraines range and effect of their drones is woeful to the long term stability of Russia. Ukraine can’t even hold all of Russia in Europe at risk, let alone our neighbors way out east in Asia.

Besides in that video the hit was ineffective. Not all hits are, but that one was. They need Himars without a geo lock. They need Tomahawks. And they need it 2 years ago.
 
NOTE: For anyone wondering how Ukraine can hit an oil refinery almost every day and why Russia doesn’t stop it?

The answer’s simple. Russia is huge, its refineries are spread all over, and air-defense assets are limited.

You can’t ring every plant with S-300/400 or Pantsir/Tor and keep them alert 24/7. Most facilities are lightly covered or uncovered, so Ukraine rotates targets and gets leaks through. One successful hit can idle a refinery for weeks.

So you see. Its a losing game for Putin. And the results are already visibly showing. Greatly.
 
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DarkNoon said:
@Torch Have you not seen my reports? Over the last couple of weeks I’ve posted videos from across Russia showing very long lines for rationed gasoline. Russian officials are on TV asking people to stay calm because many stations are closing as rationing isn’t working.

Also, Putin imposed price caps on gasoline, which is making the shortages WAY worse, not better.

And again a reminder that Russia now importing gasoline from Belarus has appeared to do absolutely nothing to quell the shortages.

Putin running out of options. China imports gasoline, doesn't export. So not sure where Putin is going to get his gasoline to keep the country and people running/driving soon. Cracks, big ones, already appearing.
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Not going to happen. Not from small drone strikes. Everything helps to be sure but Russia has many refineries well beyond Ukraines range.

Besides I not against Ukraine. They need more. Farther. Faster and with a much bigger boom! I would love to see cbu’s spat out over every square meter of a refinery 😇
 
Torch said:
Not going to happen.
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It’s not hypothetical, it’s happening now.

Weeks of footage from across Russia, long queues and rationing at gas stations.

Regional officials on TV urging calm as stations close when supply runs out.

The Kremlin halted gasoline exports to everyone, officially acknowledging the squeeze.

👉 If you’ve got counter evidence, post it. Otherwise “not going to happen” is just wishful thinking against publicly available facts that I have already posted through the past couple of weeks.
 
Torch said:
Not going to happen. Not from small drone strikes. Everything helps to be sure but Russia has many refineries well beyond Ukraines range.

Besides I not against Ukraine. They need more. Farther. Faster and with a much bigger boom! I would love to see cbu’s spat out over every square meter of a refinery 😇
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You don’t have to hit all of them. Everytime a refinery is taken down they have to come up with the parts to fix it, over time they burn through more and more of this stockpile that’s not easily replaced. Now let’s say there’s a storm in the far east of Russia that takes out a refinery, normally not a huge deal, but if you don’t have the parts to fix it since you’ve been dedicating those parts towards repairing the refineries in the west you now have a problem. That’s the Ukranian’s strategy, not a quick blow but death by a thousand cuts.
 
DarkNoon said:
Tell that to Russians who can’t buy gasoline right now or to the ones standing in lines hundreds deep for their rationed fill ups, limited per visit/day.

Sure, gasoline doesn’t run tanks. But it runs the economy. And Ukraine’s been hitting a refinery almost every day, it’s definitely biting.

Even Moscow, all the way to Crimean officials are out telling Russian residents to stay calm because they can’t get gas to drive their cars or run other machines that run on gas.

Hell, they (Russia) had to stop selling their gasoline to everyone and start importing from Belarus. LOL!

Still not offsetting enough by importing from Belarus clearly, with the major fuel shortages across Russia right now.
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I'm with Darknoon on this - the situation could go downhill for Putin very quickly. The Wagner coup showed how they had very little military control over huge swathes of the country, and massive economic pressures could snowball rapidly into an uprising.
 
peterould said:
I'm with Darknoon on this - the situation could go downhill for Putin very quickly. The Wagner coup showed how they had very little military control over huge swathes of the country, and massive economic pressures could snowball rapidly into an uprising.
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I didn’t say that, and I don’t think a collapse is likely.

It is not about agreeing with me. I am just simply stating the facts/reports. I was laying out clearly a ongoing gasoline shortage, that is happening, and real pressure is being asserted on Putin because of it.

From my understanding Torch was unaware of this. Wanted to make sure he was made aware.

What I’m pointing out is real, visible pressure on ordinary Russians from the ongoing gasoline shortages across the country.

👉 That kind of pressure can push Putin to escalate. That’s my concern, not regime or front-line collapse. Just clarifying.
 
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