• Guests may view all public nodes. However, you must be registered to post.

UA-RU | Jan.-1st-2026/August 20th | Analysis

Status
Not open for further replies.
Deep dive,

Can the Disparate Threads of Ukraine Peace Talks Be Woven Together?​

Putin is stalling, waiting for a breakthrough on the front lines or a grand bargain in which Trump will give him something more than Ukraine in exchange for concessions on Ukraine. And if that doesn’t happen, the conflict could be expanded beyond Ukraine.

Moscow’s position is that it will in any case take this territory: if not through negotiations, then by force, in which case, its territorial demands may increase. But Russia’s position on the battlefield is not convincing enough for the Ukrainian armed forces to agree to simply retreat.

Therefore, Russia is trying to win the war by regularly leaving the civilian population of large Ukrainian cities without heat, electricity, and water during this freezing winter.


Russian negotiators went from offering to provide the United States with rare earth metals last spring to proposing to buy hundreds of Boeings last fall. Now they have put forward a $14 trillion deal that would encompass the return of U.S. companies’ Russian assets, joint hydrocarbon production and transportation, the rebuilding of Ukraine, aviation, and an intercontinental bridge across the Bering Strait.

carnegieendowment.org

Can the Disparate Threads of Ukraine Peace Talks Be Woven Together?

Putin is stalling, waiting for a breakthrough on the front lines or a grand bargain in which Trump will give him something more than Ukraine in exchange for concessions on Ukraine. And if that doesn’t happen, the conflict could be expanded beyond Ukraine.
carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org
 
A question :
Why is the US negotiation allegedly on behalf on Ukraine?
Here is a quick answer , is there a probject with actions and deeds versus the statement?

“
The U.S. negotiates for Ukraine with Russia primarily because the conflict is viewed in Washington as a broader security dispute involving NATO, rather than just a bilateral territorial issue
. As a major provider of military and financial aid, the U.S. leverages its position to influence the conflict's end, aiming to prevent further escalation and manage global security, including issues like NATO expansion, sanctions, and economic reintegration.”
 
Budapest Accord

While the U.S. views the memorandum as a binding agreement, Russia has argued it was not legally obligated by it, arguing the changes in Ukraine in 2014 meant they were no longer bound by the initial agreements, according to Brookings analysis
Russia was a key signatory, guaranteeing to respect Ukraine's independence. Russia subsequently violated these commitments via its 2014 annexation of Crimea and 2022 invasion

www.brookings.edu

Mr. Lavrov, Russia, and the Budapest Memorandum | Brookings

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave a lengthy press conference this week, reflecting on the performance of Russian diplomacy in 2015. Among other issues, he addressed Moscow’s obligations under the December 1994 Budapest Memorandum on security assurances for Ukraine. He claimed that...
www.brookings.edu www.brookings.edu

The 1994 Budapest Memorandum is a political agreement signed by Russia, the U.S., and the UK, assuring Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and borders in exchange for renouncing its nuclear arsenal
.
  • Signatories: Russia (Boris Yeltsin), Ukraine (Leonid Kuchma), United States (Bill Clinton), and the United Kingdom (John Major).
  • Core Commitments by Russia: Respecting Ukrainian sovereignty and existing borders, and refraining from the threat or use of force against Ukraine.
  • Purpose: To convince Ukraine to give up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal inherited from the Soviet Union.
  • Breaches: Russia is widely considered to have violated the memorandum by invading Ukraine, beginning with Crimea in 2014, and continuing in 2022.
 
Minsk Accord

The Minsk Accords (2014-2015) were diplomatic agreements aimed at ending fighting between Ukraine and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region. They included ceasefires, heavy weapon withdrawal, and regional elections
. However, the agreements failed to hold, with regular violations and differing interpretations of sovereignty.
Reuters +3
Key Details of the Minsk Accords:
  • Minsk I
    (September 2014):
    A 12-point agreement aimed at stopping the fighting, but it broke down quickly.
    • Minsk II (February 2015): A 13-point follow-up signed by leaders from Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany, as well as representatives from the self-proclaimed separatist regions.
    • Main Goals: An immediate ceasefire, withdrawal of foreign armed formations and mercenaries from Ukraine, restoration of Ukraine’s control over its border, and holding local elections in Donetsk and Luhansk followed by decentralization (special status).
    • Key Failures: Russia's insistence it was not a party to the conflict (denying the presence of its forces), which hindered the withdrawal of foreign weapons and troops.
 

Rubio, G7 diplomats duel over wars in Iran and Ukraine​

“The United States is constantly being asked to help in a war,” Rubio said referring to Ukraine, before taking off for the Friday conclusion of a G7 gathering outside Paris. “But when the US had a need, he didn’t get positive responses,” he added.

Great comment, on careful review I believe I read an important agreement”without strings attached except give up your nukes” need to be considered?🤔

“The 1994 Budapest Memorandum is a political agreement signed by Russia, the U.S., and the UK, assuring Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and borders in exchange for renouncing its nuclear arsenal
.
  • Signatories: Russia (Boris Yeltsin), Ukraine (Leonid Kuchma), United States (Bill Clinton), and the United Kingdom (John Major).
  • Core Commitments by Russia:Respecting Ukrainian sovereignty and existing borders, and refraining from the threat or use of force against Ukraine.
  • Purpose: To convince Ukraine to give up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal inherited from the Soviet Union.
  • Breaches: Russia is widely considered to have violated the memorandum by invading Ukraine, beginning with Crimea in 2014, and continuing in 2022.”
amp.scmp.com

‘Ukraine’s not America’s war, Iran not our war’: US, G7 diplomats trade barbs

The US secretary of state chided allies for rebuffing Trump’s demand for military help in the Gulf.
amp.scmp.com amp.scmp.com
 
Erecon said:
How would a postwar with Sergej Sobjanin as the new Russian leader look like?
Click to expand...
Give us a back story? Who is he? Does he live in any hi rise apartments?
Your inference suggests Putin is gone?
Postwar, 🤔 Ukraine or Iran???
So far in Russian elections the opponents are usually guaranteed to loose,
 
Lostpuppy said:
Give us a back story? Who is he? Does he live in any hi rise apartments?
Click to expand...
Properly, as @GBS61 wrote he is the Mayor of Moskva ( like Boris Jeltsin )
Lostpuppy said:
Your inference suggests Putin is gone?
Click to expand...
Yes Russia after Putin.
Lostpuppy said:
Postwar, 🤔 Ukraine or Iran???
Click to expand...
Ukraine ofc
Lostpuppy said:
So far in Russian elections the opponents are usually guaranteed to loose,
Click to expand...
Yeah its not after an election, there will be a powerstruggle as usual.

I am just curious, because it seems to me that the guy is well positioned for a takeover after Putin.
 
Erecon said:
Properly, as @GBS61 wrote he is the Mayor of Moskva ( like Boris Jeltsin )

Yes Russia after Putin.

Ukraine ofc

Yeah its not after an election, there will be a powerstruggle as usual.

I am just curious, because it seems to me that the guy is well positioned for a takeover after Putin.
Click to expand...
I am curious when do you think this power struggle will happen,
And,,,, why
 
Erecon said:
In the future

Its only logical that there will be a power struggle with a power vacuum.
Click to expand...
Maybe he will still be at war, if Putins Russia doesnt stop, Ukraine is fighting for the above accord that was “ guaranteed”

Of course Russia and Germany had an accord in WW2🤔

If Ukraine had not given up their nukes,🤔
 
NuclearID said:
Ukraine has spent the past year and a half steadily damaging Russian oil logistics and refining infrastructure, and Russia has already seen reported fuel shortages at home during that time.

Given that, a halt in exports is not surprising. It suggests Moscow may need to keep what fuel it can still produce for domestic use first, especially if repeated strikes have materially constrained production and distribution capacity.
Click to expand...
 
NuclearID said:
He cannot leave NATO on papper. However he can still end it all but in name. Which I have gone into great detail here on many occasions the MANY loopholes Trump has to remove US from NATO all but in name.
Click to expand...
👇
NuclearID said:
No. To quit or null the treaty he would need congress.

HOWEVER (loophole) he does not need congress or anyone's approval to move troops or equipment. He can without a single doubt order all troops and equipment out of Europe and he wouldn't need anyone's approval to do so.

So while Trump can't leave NATO on papper. He can effectively end NATO but on papper.
Click to expand...
NuclearID said:
It's is entirely at the commander in chiefs discretion to move troops and equipment. Not Congress. And he could simply move everything out of Europe, since he can't technically leave NATO on papper, he will end NATO but all in name instead by physically removing ourselves from Europe entirely. Same result really.

⤵️
A lot of people will assume a future president could simply reverse the move and send everything back to Europe.

In reality, withdrawals are easier than redeployments. Once forces and equipment have been moved, reassigned, and integrated elsewhere like Asia, rebuilding that posture takes time, money, logistics, and political will. Which likely won't happen even if next president is a DEM.
Click to expand...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom