• Guests may view all public nodes. However, you must be registered to post.

🗣️ | US-Israel/Iran | Post CF Anouncment | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

DEFCON Warning System said:
China isn't paying tolls. There's no reason for the US to stop them.
Click to expand...
Of course there is, it’s not about preventing who receives the oil.
It’s about shutting off Irans oil revenues. The other gulf states are still exporting their oil thru pipelines. Iran only has seaborne routes.
That it puts pressure on nations who rely on gulf export flows, China India Europe is a secondary benefit.
It’s a poker game, all foreign affairs is game theory. Trump has all the significant cards face up.
 
Publius said:
Of course there is, it’s not about preventing who receives the oil.
It’s about shutting off Irans oil revenues. The other gulf states are still exporting their oil thru pipelines. Iran only has seaborne routes.
That it puts pressure on nations who rely on gulf export flows, China India Europe is a secondary benefit.
It’s a poker game, all foreign affairs is game theory. Trump has all the significant cards face up.
Click to expand...
It also throws cover on stoping munitions imports
 
Publius said:
Of course there is, it’s not about preventing who receives the oil.
It’s about shutting off Irans oil revenues.
Click to expand...
I'm not commenting on shutting off Iran's revenue. I am commenting on what the US plans to do at this moment. At this moment, they are planning to stop all Iranian vessels and any vessel it believes has paid a toll to Iran.

If the US changes policy and plans to stop any ship that holds Iranian oil, then we'll start looking at that.
 
Cilvilt_beredskap said:
For now I don't think China or Russia cares that much about a blockade other than strong words, they can afford to reroute their oil exports.
Click to expand...
Yeah they didn’t do anything about Venezuela can’t imagine this being their red line. Especially when two Chinese tankers picked up oil from Saudi Arabia yesterday, and will likely continue to do so unimpeded by the Iranians.
 
Publius said:
Of course there is, it’s not about preventing who receives the oil.
It’s about shutting off Irans oil revenues. The other gulf states are still exporting their oil thru pipelines. Iran only has seaborne routes.
That it puts pressure on nations who rely on gulf export flows, China India Europe is a secondary benefit.
It’s a poker game, all foreign affairs is game theory. Trump has all the significant cards face up.
Click to expand...
If this was about shutting off Iran's oil revenues, why did the Trump administration temporarily waive sanctions on Iranian oil still at sea?

My two cents is that Trump has no grand strategy and is just flailing.
 
willrod1989 said:
If this was about shutting off Iran's oil revenues, why did the Trump administration temporarily waive sanctions on Iranian oil still at sea?

My two cents is that Trump has no grand strategy and is just flailing.
Click to expand...
Well for one the sanctions card is pretty well useless. It’s been overplayed and not proven effective when used over the last 15 years.
We will see if there is a plan. I know it’s hard to imagine an American administration actual acting in a manner that is economically and strategically beneficial to the US.
 
Snowfall said:
Yeah they didn’t do anything about Venezuela can’t imagine this being their red line. Especially when two Chinese tankers picked up oil from Saudi Arabia yesterday, and will likely continue to do so unimpeded by the Iranians.
Click to expand...
I even said before the war started that the oil Iran provides to the world let alone even to China is very miniscule, "a drop in the bucket" as one would say.

The world learned (including China) how to live without Iranian oil for a long time now and the oil anyone gets from Iran is again a drop in the bucket.

And the only reason why Energy prices are going up is not because of lack of Iranian oil it's the lack of the oil that flows through the international waters next to Iran.

Extreme distinction... The world isn't missing Iranian oil, it's just missing a free open Water way to transport the world's oil.

So yeah stopping Iranian oil OR EVEN blowing up all Iranian oil production wouldn't hamper China in any way. The oil Iran provides to China is again a drop in the bucket and ditto for anybody else that receives it.

Anyone who is buying Iranian oil is doing so as a gift essentially because they could really get it from anywhere else and it's more of a trouble to get it through them than anywhere else.
 
NuclearID said:
So yeah stopping Iranian oil or even blowing up all Iranian oil production wouldn't hamper China in any way. The oil Iran provides to China is again a drop in the bucket and ditto for anybody else that receives it.
Click to expand...
For example if somehow in some alternate reality this would work... IF we were just to blow up the Iranian oil infrastructure and the straight of Hormuz would remain opened, it would NOT cause a energy shock.

The energy shock is entirely from the straight of Hormuz, NOT the lack of Iranian oil.

➡️Because again the world moved on from Iranian oil a long, long time ago, where anyone still buying it is doing so as a favor. Absolutely not out of necessity.
 
Irag8er said:
To do what…..interfere with the U.S. Navy?
Or better yet…..attack a US Navy vessel?
Feckless.
Click to expand...
I read it as defend freedom of navigation thru the strait.
Am I missing something here?
Yeah it’s a little late but that they have been forced to even consider engaging in this says something in itself
 
NuclearID said:
For example if somehow in some alternate reality this would work... IF we were just to blow up the Iranian oil infrastructure and the straight of Hormuz would remain opened, it would NOT cause a energy shock.

The energy shock is entirely from the straight of Hormuz, NOT the lack of Iranian oil.

➡️Because again the world moved on from Iranian oil a long, long time ago, where anyone still buying it is doing so as a favor. Absolutely not out of necessity.
Click to expand...
Two things, China has been buying Iranian oil at a discount since sanctions have been in place.
Second it’s not about hurting China it’s about closing off Iranian oil revenues.

In context with Venezuela and the US ramping up oil production. You’re right it is about the world moving on from Iranian oil.
To do that however the IRGC needs gone.
There needs to be no nation in a position to close the flow of trade in the region.
That includes the Houthi’s trying to interfere with shipping in the Red Sea.

Look at the situation Iran has held this threat of closing the straits for decades.
They have seized boarded merchant vessels. Held them for ransom like Somali pirates.
It’s ridiculous that the international community allowed it to go on this long.
Then they began providing ballistic missiles to the Houthi’s so they could harass merchant vessels in the Red Sea.

The IRGC is pirate state just like the Caliphs of the Mediterranean 250 years ago.
And just as then the world did nothing to stop it.
 
Mood from the UK public is overwhelmingly that this isn't our war and we're staying out of it. It's the US's mess let them fix it.

But because we're one of the few nations with a minesweeping ability we'll chip in once the dust settles and help get rid of the mines.
 
Friendly Engineer said:
Mood from the UK public is overwhelmingly that this isn't our war and we're staying out of it. It's the US's mess let them fix it.
Click to expand...
This is pretty much the feeling of every country.

The problem is, Iran is not just the U.S.'s mess. The U.S. is just the only one willing to deal with it now before it becomes a bigger problem.
 
Talk about shooting yourself in your own foot just to spite someone who is temporary. Long term thinking is not a strong suit for EU governments.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
This is pretty much the feeling of every country.

The problem is, Iran is not just the U.S.'s mess. The U.S. is just the only one willing to deal with it now before it becomes a bigger problem.
Click to expand...
This Iran problem affects the UK quite seriously, our fuel prices have shot up.
We want it finished ASAP, but we know it'll be diplomacy that keeps the strait open, not war. Diplomacy is the only long term solution to the Iran problem (as Trump is slowly finding out).
NuclearID said:
Talk about shooting yourself in your own foot just to spite someone who is temporary. Long term thinking is not a strong suit for EU governments.
Click to expand...
As for spiting Trump, yes he's rather unpopular here (maybe he should stop insulting the UK or raising our fuel prices), but we're not refusing to bomb Iran just to spite him, it's for the reasons I said above.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom