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US-Israel/Iran | CF Unstable & Unresolved | April-18th/May-20th | Analysis

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Careful, the terminology used in this post are right on the line of promoting partisan politics on the boards
Misere, close this forum. This isn't about partisanship; the current administration makes all the decisions. If some people are hurt,
that's their problem. The ban on discussing politics is intended to prevent criticism of this administration.
Is this a forum for 6- to 8-year-olds?
 
Misere, close this forum. This isn't about partisanship; the current administration makes all the decisions. If some people are hurt,
that's their problem. The ban on discussing politics is intended to prevent criticism of this administration.
Is this a forum for 6- to 8-year-olds?
You can criticise based on actions, not on party.

Correct: The US Government is pursing a [poor/great] policy on Iran

Incorrect: The [Republicans/Democrats] are pursing a [poor/great] policy on Iran.
 
Misere, close this forum. This isn't about partisanship; the current administration makes all the decisions. If some people are hurt,
that's their problem. The ban on discussing politics is intended to prevent criticism of this administration.
Is this a forum for 6- to 8-year-olds?
To be fair, my selected terminology is emotive, and @RiffRaff called that out. While I vent my frustration in my post and focus my comments specifically to the administration's actions while avoiding overtly partisan political statements, as @RiffRaff states, it's on the line of decorum guidelines the staff seeks from all members in an effort to facilitate productive analysis.
 
To be fair, my selected terminology is emotive, and @RiffRaff called that out. While I vent my frustration in my post and focus my comments specifically to the administration's actions while avoiding overtly partisan political statements, as @RiffRaff states, it's on the line of decorum guidelines the staff seeks from all members in an effort to facilitate productive analysis.
This proves you're human, not a robot. I've even written worse than you, except I'm incapable of lying. You can't accuse me of political bias; I'm Canadian. Whether Trump is a Republican, a Democrat, or an alien, I have the same opinion of him.
 
So, now Project Freedom too has been ended. Instead of deterring Iran, Trump is pretending nothing happened and backing down from the thing he announced like 30 hours ago. That means... a grand total of two ships made it out during the operation, which is less than 1% of the ships stranded there. The government continues to maintain that the Strait of Hormuz is open & there is a safe corridor, ignoring the numerous daily reports of the IRGC bombing ships.

I don't remember the last time the US launched a military operation and then halted it a month in without achieving any objectives.

If anything, why not just continue the war campaign until their missile stockpile was more critically damaged...then at least there'd be one completed objective to point to, but no. The campaign was halted without accomplishing a SINGLE objective, and the US pivoted away while conceding constantly to Iran.

Iran's missile programme is clearly not "destroyed". It just bombed the UAE two days in a row with its missiles, and will probably do so again given the US has given them free reign to bomb US allies, shoot at US Navy ships and civilian vessels & attack American forces and show them there will be no retaliation and the US government will simply bury its head under the sand and pretend nothing happened. It's sad to see that the US has chosen the path of lying that they have accomplished all their objectives, and claim victory when this has verifiably not taken place. No better than Russia, really.

The long term effects of this will be disastrous. If you were Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, or the Baltic states, what would you see? You would see that the US is unwilling to defend you if the escalation is "mild" enough. What does this mean?

The Gulf countries will almost certainly abandon their ties on the US and try to build military ties to China, India, Pakistan, Russia, and other countries.

The US military buildup still indicates Trump is asking the Pentagon to prepare him options. But Trump has consistently rejected those options since mid-March. And he is also preparing diplomatic options for himself as well.

You shoot back if you AND your allies are shot at, it's simple as that. And you don't start a war if you don't have the will to see it through all the way.

The world has regressed and is in a worse position than it was before the war. The war enabled the IRGC hardliners to take complete control of Iran and removed whatever little grip the civilian government had on the situation by bombing people like Larijani who could actually control the IRGC.
It then proceeded to allow Iran to take complete control of the Strait of Hormuz which will cause a global economic crisis and lead to countries collapsing. The missile programme was not eliminated, the Iranian people were not freed from their dictatorship, the Iranian Navy is still able to project power, and the Iranian Air Force was already in a state of ruin. And the nuclear programme is in the same state as it was before the war, but now the IRGC knows it must pursue a nuclear weapon to deter further strikes.

A loss by every definition.
 
So, now Project Freedom too has been ended. Instead of deterring Iran, Trump is pretending nothing happened and backing down from the thing he announced like 30 hours ago. That means... a grand total of two ships made it out during the operation, which is less than 1% of the ships stranded there. The government continues to maintain that the Strait of Hormuz is open & there is a safe corridor, ignoring the numerous daily reports of the IRGC bombing ships.

I don't remember the last time the US launched a military operation and then halted it a month in without achieving any objectives.

If anything, why not just continue the war campaign until their missile stockpile was more critically damaged...then at least there'd be one completed objective to point to, but no. The campaign was halted without accomplishing a SINGLE objective, and the US pivoted away while conceding constantly to Iran.

Iran's missile programme is clearly not "destroyed". It just bombed the UAE two days in a row with its missiles, and will probably do so again given the US has given them free reign to bomb US allies, shoot at US Navy ships and civilian vessels & attack American forces and show them there will be no retaliation and the US government will simply bury its head under the sand and pretend nothing happened. It's sad to see that the US has chosen the path of lying that they have accomplished all their objectives, and claim victory when this has verifiably not taken place. No better than Russia, really.

The long term effects of this will be disastrous. If you were Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, or the Baltic states, what would you see? You would see that the US is unwilling to defend you if the escalation is "mild" enough. What does this mean?

The Gulf countries will almost certainly abandon their ties on the US and try to build military ties to China, India, Pakistan, Russia, and other countries.

The US military buildup still indicates Trump is asking the Pentagon to prepare him options. But Trump has consistently rejected those options since mid-March. And he is also preparing diplomatic options for himself as well.

You shoot back if you AND your allies are shot at, it's simple as that. And you don't start a war if you don't have the will to see it through all the way.

The world has regressed and is in a worse position than it was before the war. The war enabled the IRGC hardliners to take complete control of Iran and removed whatever little grip the civilian government had on the situation by bombing people like Larijani who could actually control the IRGC.
It then proceeded to allow Iran to take complete control of the Strait of Hormuz which will cause a global economic crisis and lead to countries collapsing. The missile programme was not eliminated, the Iranian people were not freed from their dictatorship, the Iranian Navy is still able to project power, and the Iranian Air Force was already in a state of ruin. And the nuclear programme is in the same state as it was before the war, but now the IRGC knows it must pursue a nuclear weapon to deter further strikes.

A loss by every definition.
Thank you, well stated, 👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
 
Canadians are incapable of political bias?
Canadians aren't as strongly left- or right-leaning as in the US. Here, the political parties are practically all the same, not much difference. Is that better? I don't know! However, we don't have the problem of division that you have. When a political party wins an election, the losers side with the winners. In the US, it's awful; the losers accuse the winner of cheating.

Yes, I know, I'm going off-topic.
 
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Canadians aren't as strongly left- or right-leaning as in the US. Here, the political parties are practically all the same, not much difference. Is that better? I don't know! However, we don't have the problem of division that you have. :ROFLMAO: \
When a political party wins an election, the losers side with the winners. In the US, it's awful; the losers accuse the winner of cheating.

Yes, I know, I'm going off-topic.
 
If I start seeing the US withdraw from the Middle East, leaving the IRGC in power, I would consider THAT a loss I think you are a little premature in your analysis. So far all I see is force buildup, not withdrawal.

Is it possible that the US is mapping every missile, drone and fast boat launch the IRGC is doing and will get hammered when the IRGC shows the world what deceivers they are?
 
In response to William, who seems to have blocked the reply function

In April, a competing petition calling for Alberta to remain in the Canadian federation garnered over 400,000 signatures.

So you're claiming you don't have a division problem?

A February 2026 poll indicated that fewer than 30% of Albertans supported Alberta's separation from Canada, with the majority (approximately 57% to 60%) preferring to remain within the Confederation. While separatist sentiment persists, it is primarily viewed as a political statement rather than a concrete plan.
 
A February 2026 poll indicated that fewer than 30% of Albertans supported Alberta's separation from Canada
That does work out to be more than a million people who want succession. Not suggesting they are going to get it. But it isn't a drop in the bucket, either.
 
So, now Project Freedom too has been ended. Instead of deterring Iran, Trump is pretending nothing happened and backing down from the thing he announced like 30 hours ago. That means... a grand total of two ships made it out during the operation, which is less than 1% of the ships stranded there. The government continues to maintain that the Strait of Hormuz is open & there is a safe corridor, ignoring the numerous daily reports of the IRGC bombing ships.

I don't remember the last time the US launched a military operation and then halted it a month in without achieving any objectives.

If anything, why not just continue the war campaign until their missile stockpile was more critically damaged...then at least there'd be one completed objective to point to, but no. The campaign was halted without accomplishing a SINGLE objective, and the US pivoted away while conceding constantly to Iran.

Iran's missile programme is clearly not "destroyed". It just bombed the UAE two days in a row with its missiles, and will probably do so again given the US has given them free reign to bomb US allies, shoot at US Navy ships and civilian vessels & attack American forces and show them there will be no retaliation and the US government will simply bury its head under the sand and pretend nothing happened. It's sad to see that the US has chosen the path of lying that they have accomplished all their objectives, and claim victory when this has verifiably not taken place. No better than Russia, really.

The long term effects of this will be disastrous. If you were Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, or the Baltic states, what would you see? You would see that the US is unwilling to defend you if the escalation is "mild" enough. What does this mean?

The Gulf countries will almost certainly abandon their ties on the US and try to build military ties to China, India, Pakistan, Russia, and other countries.

The US military buildup still indicates Trump is asking the Pentagon to prepare him options. But Trump has consistently rejected those options since mid-March. And he is also preparing diplomatic options for himself as well.

You shoot back if you AND your allies are shot at, it's simple as that. And you don't start a war if you don't have the will to see it through all the way.

The world has regressed and is in a worse position than it was before the war. The war enabled the IRGC hardliners to take complete control of Iran and removed whatever little grip the civilian government had on the situation by bombing people like Larijani who could actually control the IRGC.
It then proceeded to allow Iran to take complete control of the Strait of Hormuz which will cause a global economic crisis and lead to countries collapsing. The missile programme was not eliminated, the Iranian people were not freed from their dictatorship, the Iranian Navy is still able to project power, and the Iranian Air Force was already in a state of ruin. And the nuclear programme is in the same state as it was before the war, but now the IRGC knows it must pursue a nuclear weapon to deter further strikes.

A loss by every definition.
Feel better?

We dont have any allies willing to fight with us and quite a few that will not even defend themselves.

I no longer care about the entire region (although to be fair I was mostly done with The Sandbox and Shitastan a long time ago.). If no own else except Israel care, We should not either. It is ok to start down a path and redirect when realities do not break ones way. The USA will no longer do the heavy lifting with half bitching that we are and half bitching that we are not lifting enough. India is a huge regional power with nuclear weapons to protect herself. I nominate both her and the EU to go straighten the Iranians out. There is a huge global realignment taking place and the western world is not going to have the USA to hide (or kick) around anymore.
 
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Feel better?

We dont have any allies willing to fight with us and quite a few that will not even defend themselves.

I no longer care about the entire region (although to be fair I was mostly done with The Sandbox and Shitastan a long time ago.). If no own else except Israel care, We should not either. It is ok to start down a path and redirect when realities do not break ones way. The USA will no longer do the heavy lifting with half bitching that we are and half bitching that we are not lifting enough. India is a huge regional power with nuclear weapons to protect herself. I nominate both her and the EU to go straighten the Iranians out. There is a huge global realignment taking place and the western world is not going to have the USA to hide (or kick) around anymore.
The entire reason this kicked off was because the IRGC mass slaughtered Iranians for protesting. It wasn't Modi or Macron or Starmer who encouraged the protestors to go fight the IRGC. I believe it was Trump who told them to keep protesting & fighting and that the USA would back them and blow up the IRGC if they killed the protestors?

This made a lot of people walk into harms way, thinking Trump would support them. They have been stabbed in the back with thousands massacred. Why promise them help if he wasn't willing to actually back them up and go the whole way?

I agree that it is okay to start down a path and redirect when realities do not break ones way. But this does not mean surrendering to the IRGC, as is currently taking place.
 
If I start seeing the US withdraw from the Middle East, leaving the IRGC in power, I would consider THAT a loss I think you are a little premature in your analysis. So far all I see is force buildup, not withdrawal.

Is it possible that the US is mapping every missile, drone and fast boat launch the IRGC is doing and will get hammered when the IRGC shows the world what deceivers they are?
I really do hope this is the case.
 
Messy.....

Trump’s abrupt U-turn on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies

President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after a key Gulf ally suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, according to two U.S. officials.

A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.
Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom” on social media Sunday afternoon, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. Other close Gulf allies were also caught off guard; the president spoke with leaders in Qatar after the effort had already begun.

A Middle Eastern diplomat said the U.S. did not coordinate Project Freedom with the Omanis until after Trump made the announcement. “The U.S. made an announcement and then coordinated with us,” the diplomat said.
 
Saudi anger is quite understandable. They view it as long term sustainability to remove the IRGC and secure their long term future. They were one of the biggest pushers for Trump to start this. They view Trumps current posture as "abandoning" them, half assing it causing hundreds of billions of dollars in losses/damages, and leaving the IRGC in control. Operation Freedom doesn't do anything to advance Saudi goals which is why they are throwing a fit.
 
I know everyone hates Trump but the liberty loving nations of the word have to get their shit together and crush the IRGC! IMO
 
I would be leery of NBC reporting. If you read down through the article you find this. 👇
Asked whether the announcement of Project Freedom caught the Saudi leaders by surprise, the Saudi source said: “The problem with that premise is that things are happening quickly in real time.” The source said Saudi Arabia was “very supportive of the diplomatic efforts” by Pakistan to broker a deal between Iran and the U.S. to end the war.

A White House official said
in a statement when asked about some Gulf state leaders being caught off guard by the announcement of the U.S. effort to help ships transit the Strait of Hormuz, “Regional allies were notified in advance.”

A Middle Eastern diplomat said the U.S. did not coordinate Project Freedom with the Omanis until after Trump made the announcement. “The U.S. made an announcement and then coordinated with us,” the diplomat said, adding, “we were not upset or angry.”
I am sure that if you take a look at what Mosheh Gains, Courtney Kube, Andrea Mitchell, Natasha Lebedeva and Daniel Arkin report on you would not find very much positive about the current US administration.
 
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