US-Israel/Iran | CF Unstable & Unresolved | April-18th/May-20th | Analysis

[DEFCON Warning System]

and a battered, vengeful Iran that has learnt the U.S. cannot be trusted & that a nuke is the ultimate deterrent.

To be fair, they knew that before.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I have long-said, going back as far as pre-911, that if I was President one of the first things I would do is close all military bases not on US or NATO soil and reassign all equipment and personnel. Let all nations know that the US will no longer attempt to police the entire world or get involved in wars that do not directly involve American or NATO territory, with one exception: For every American killed by a terrorist organization or hostile power, America will kill 1,000 of those responsible. For every American taken hostage by a terrorist organization or hostile power, America will kill 1,000 of those responsible every day until they are released. If for some reason America has no choice but to go to war, we won't send 5,000 troops, or 10,000 troops, or 50,000 troops - we will descend on the enemy with hundreds of thousands of troops with the singular goal of complete annihilation until the enemy dies or surrenders. The philosophy of "proportional response" will no longer be followed. America will mind her own business and take care of our own problems first, but if you fuck with a single American citizen, you will experience the wrath of all the gods combined. My name is RiffRaff, and I would appreciate your vote in 2028.

This statement has been approved by the RiffRaff for President Foundation of America.

Interesting. I always imagined that if I was President, that is exactly what I would have done.

You and I think a lot alike.

 

[Publius]

Key point, Iran is still in control of the Strait and is able to chokehold the global economy.

World wide seaborne crude flows down 3-6 % compared to pre-war. Brent and WTI up 13-16%.
So it is certainly a constant but in no way a chokehold worldwide.

 

[Publius]

Interesting. I always imagined that if I was President, that is exactly what I would have done.

You and I think a lot alike.

Well our nato partners would not have been very happy. Or do the expect us to fund 50% of a military conflict with Russia. While at the same time keep the flow of hydrocarbons uninterrupted and priced as low as possible out of the gulf.

 

[Publius]

NK ? PAKISTAN? CHINA ? please

So by all means let’s do nothing about one more.

 

[RiffRaff]

Interesting. I always imagined that if I was President, that is exactly what I would have done.

You and I think a lot alike.

Well, all of that rant was the Conservative in me coming out. I would also kill off all illegal surveillance of American citizens, implement universal health care, and replace income tax with a consumption tax. This means individuals and companies would only pay taxes when they spend their money on any product or service. It also means people who normally find methods of beating income taxes will start contributing their fair share, and taxes will be more fairly distributed. People below the poverty level will pay the least in taxes because they don't have much money to spend, while billionaires will be forced to pay taxes when they buy that new yacht.

You and I agree on a lot of things, despite our differences. What we disagree on we could probably come to mutually satisfactory arrangements on after some discussion.

 

[Publius]

Interesting. I always imagined that if I was President, that is exactly what I would have done.

You and I think a lot alike.

The Roman foreign policy only worked for so long. And while I agree with the non-proportional response and disengagement. Realistically it can’t just be limited to NATO only.
Not when Europe is not doing what they needed to do meet their defense OR secure reliable energy markets for themselves.

What about Japan and ROK and ROC? Just let them stand up alone against China militarily and securing their energy?

This is why the MAGA isolationist demands are unrealistic as well.
We could withdraw our military influence world wide and what? Leave it to China or Iran across Africa go un-challenged. It would work for about 3 election cycles.

Or we could let the classical libertarian model fill the void and let corporate and business entities provide for their own resource and market interests overseas with their own private militaries. Remember the Blackwater ugliness?

This is not an outright critique but we are witnessing a dramatic reorganization of the world order. In truth there will be no one perfect solution. Because as we adjust our focus and interest, adversities will adjust theirs.

We’re back to the 60’s and 70’s again. What are we willing to do to secure security and economic interests throughout the globe. Are we willing to support or work with a less than ideal partner in Africa. Or stay hands off and do nothing to prevent China or Iran continue to spread their influence across Africa?
Should we let Chevron establish their own private army in Venezuela?
What happens when US mining interest get attacked by PLA forces over lithium mines.

There are no clean or inviolate principled policy platforms to respond to the world at large.

 

[Lostpuppy]

We can replace Europe as the air bridge via Africa to M.E via just expansion of existing African bases, not to mention the ability to build more bases quickly in Africa, don't take much to build a military landing strip...

Plus we need to reconnect with Africa anyways for many reasons. So. Two birds one stone. Don't really need Europe. Get closer to Africa whom we been drifting away from to much.

We need to leave EU and go directly to Asia. Beef it up their. Counter the red dragon in the Pacific.

China has done a good job tieing up Africa

 

[NuclearID]

China has done a good job tieing up Africa

Not really. And in fact has damaged it. Also as ive said countless times their belt and road has failed.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Well, all of that rant was the Conservative in me coming out. I would also kill off all illegal surveillance of American citizens,

I agree.

implement universal health care,

No Constitutional authority. Though I would not be opposed to amending the Constitution to provide it.

and replace income tax with a consumption tax.

I agree with that as well.

You and I agree on a lot of things, despite our differences. What we disagree on we could probably come to mutually satisfactory arrangements on after some discussion.

Very likely.

 

[Yingyang]

Dude is getting old. Look at Obama he aged a shit ton during his Presidency. Joe Biden clearly struggled. A honestly think the US needs an age limit for any government position. Pelosi was 85 until she retired!

Congress is practically an old folks home. I am not saying it should have be overrun by naive whippersnappers. But the next President should at least be under 70.

I suggested 47-65 yrs of age previously.

 

[Publius]

Well it’s settled then. 1/2 of everyone wants the US to withdraw from the world and be hands off.
And the other half already believes Iran and China have a right to do the exact opposite, or that they have already won.

“When you lose deference, wars follow. If you want peace, the Romans said, prepare for war”

What everybody gets wrong about this maxim from Publius Flavius is this.
What everyone imagines is that if they just prepare enough for war. If they build enough bombs, ICBM’s and bombers that can fly to the other side of the globe, drop their bombs, and fly back.
Then that’s that we’ve prepared for war. No one is ever going to challenge us, or work to aggressively undermine our interests.
We’ve prepared of war after all.
If you have prepared and not resolved the issue of where and why you would actually use those tools of war.
then you haven’t prepared at all!

What are our interest and how far are we willing to go to go prove we’ve truly prepared.

Approaching one million dead for Ukraine and Russia. THAT is preparing for war!
Without a commitment to actually fight for your interests then you’ve already lost.

 

[willrod1989]

Does anyone else think that Trump is baiting Iran through this new "Freedom of Navigation" announcement? If Iran lets the ships pass, they will be humiliated. However, if they fire on the ships, Trump has his casus belli to resume the war as a defensive operation, thus bypassing the War Powers Act.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Does anyone else think that Trump is baiting Iran through this new "Freedom of Navigation" announcement? If Iran lets the ships pass, they will be humiliated. However, if they fire on the ships, Trump has his casus belli to resume the war as a defensive operation, thus bypassing the War Powers Act.

Interesting theory.

I think Trump believes Iran won't attack.

So, here is the issue:

Iran doesn't attack, they are humiliated.

Iran attacks and the US doesn't respond, the US is humiliated.

Possible outcome: Iran makes an announcement that they are allowing ships to pass through and now demand the US reciprocate by lifting their own blockade.

 

[Yingyang]

When are the US warships entering the strait to escort ships? Must be close now?

 

[Ben Dhyani]

When are the US warships entering the strait to escort ships? Must be close now?

Yup, supposed to start Monday 4th morning local Middle East time...

 

[Torch]

You and I agree on a lot of things, despite our differences. What we disagree on we could probably come to mutually satisfactory arrangements on after some discussion.

 

[Torch]

Yup, supposed to start Monday 4th morning local Middle East time...

We did this in the 1980. It worked great, well from a certain pov it worked. If you were an airliner approaching the USS Vincennes after the USS Stark was hit it might be a little unfair.

Reagan set the ROE to “kill anything that is perceived to be remotely aware of your presence” (my characterization). Later the “V” wacked an Iranian Jetliner, killing 290 people.

Reagan (by proxies) relieved the Captain of the USS Stark but backed up the Captain of the USS Vincennes and later awarded him.

It was a sereal moment and a huge demonstration of will to the world. Nobody F’ed with the US Navy for a long time. Most people thought Reagan would hang the Stsark Captain out to dry. But he stood by his orders. When the US military tells you to do something or they will fire you best do it.

It really just sucked that do many Innocent peoples were killed.

 

[RiffRaff]

We did this in the 1980. It worked great, well from a certain pov it worked. If you were an airliner approaching the USS Vincennes after the USS Stark was hit it might be a little unfair.

Reagan set the ROE to “kill anything that is perceived to be remotely aware of your presence” (my characterization). Later the “V” wacked an Iranian Jetliner, killing 290 people.

Reagan (by proxies) relieved the Captain of the USS Stark but backed up the Captain of the USS Vincennes and later awarded him.

It was a sereal moment and a huge demonstration of will to the world. Nobody F’ed with the US Navy for a long time. Most people thought Reagan would hang the Stsark Captain out to dry. But he stood by his orders. When the US military tells you to do something or they will fire you best do it.

I remember both of these incidents. Centuries of naval tradition say a captain who loses his ship needs to be relieved of command, but I thought the US Navy was unnecessarily harsh on the captain of the Stark.

It really just sucked that do many Innocent peoples were killed.

Very rarely do those actually calling the shots pay for the deaths for which they are ultimately responsible.

 

[Cilvilt_beredskap]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2051322001969594829

Aaand round two. Mayhaps. @Irag8er @RiffRaff @DEFCON Warning System

I mean, starting a navigational freedom operation in the strait would be a great way to fuck up the ceasefire after repeated warnings, and could also be somewhat of a way to legitimately break it without actually attacking Iran. Not sure if it's a smart move since it does put both escorted ships and US navy ships in danger, and looks like the IRGCN has decided to just randomly fire at any ship still in the strait.