🗣️ | UA-NATO/RU | Signs of Pre-Crisis Environment | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

[DarkNoon]

You can't really hide your going to use nukes. Not just governments. But even civilian entities monitor nuclear sites over Russia. Anything moves wrong or someone sneezes at a nuclear storage or prep facilities in Russia, we will all know. Quickly.

And as of now. Zero indicators of any kind of nuclear mobilization, not even limited suspicious activity has been flagged in any nuclear sites across Russia.

So. Never say never. But the odds Putin goes from 0 to nuclear in a instant is next to impossible ATM. Short of some dramatic catastrophic error or miscalculation/mistake.

 

[DarkNoon]

Short of some dramatic catastrophic error or miscalculation/mistake.

Which is always the case no matter what so long nuclear weapons live on hair triggers, even during normal peace time.

 

[Charmender]

Just to further add some info...Russia has already bombed decision making centers in Ukraine, which can or could have hosted foreigners.
The fact that they're publicly inviting foreign people to evacuate, is part of their routine psyop.
Doesn't change the type of risk involved.

It's really a statement which strategically does not make any sense, as foreign "decision makers" are already aware about the risks and already have intel about the size and the reach of potential russian operations...

 

[DarkNoon]

Excuse me, what?

That is the right response. I'll have to think about this one.

At first glance. I'm leaning more towards bellicose rhetoric rather than actually policy that is enforceable.

My second quick take after typing... Is that it's actually not rhetoric and it's ground work for a intervention in Central Asia as it slowly loses grip on its former Soviet satellites in Central Asia. Think we all know which countries I speak of...

 

[DrMantisToboggan]

That is the right response. I'll have to think about this one. At first glance. I'm leaning more towards bellicose rhetoric rather than actually policy that is enforceable.

My second quick take after typing... Is that it's actually not rhetoric and it's ground work for an intervention in Central Asia as it slowly loses grip on its former Soviet satellites in Central Asia. Think we all know which countries I speak of...

Oh no, not Boart!!!

 

[DarkNoon]

Oh no, not Boart!!!

If you mean the fictional character "Borat" of Kazakhstan, then yes, precisely.

 

[Charmender]

That is the right response. I'll have to think about this one.

At first glance. I'm leaning more towards bellicose rhetoric rather than actually policy that is enforceable.

My second quick take after typing... Is that it's actually not rhetoric and it's ground work for a intervention in Central Asia as it slowly loses grip on its former Soviet satellites in Central Asia. Think we all know which countries I speak of...

I doubt that Russia will invade a country to airlift a citizen being imprisoned.
Also, I don't think that Russia needs this case of justification to invade another country, especially in Central Asia...they would just do it.
If they need for some reasons to provide a reason, a false flag is the most obvious and efficient way.

 

[DarkNoon]

I doubt that Russia will invade a country to airlift a citizen being imprisoned.
Also, I don't think that Russia needs this case of justification to invade another country...they just do it.
If they need for some reasons to provide a reason, a false flag is the most obvious and efficient way.

Oh yea. But... It does make sense if this policy is pre-qualification of some kind of intervention in the future in Central Asia if Putin decides testing NATO is not in his favor after Ukraine settles down.

In fact. Russia over the last year has been making statements and policy regarding Central Asia that is IMHO pretty suspect.

Obviously no time soon. This would have to take place after Ukraine settles and big if that Putin doesn't decide to test NATO too after instead.

Otherwise I stand by my original assessment:

At first glance. I'm leaning more towards bellicose rhetoric rather than actually policy that is enforceable.

 

[Snowfall]

So…..conventional or otherwise? I can’t seem to recall in all my times of monitoring this conflict the Russian MFA actively telling foreigners to “get out” before an attack, lest striking “decision making centers” in Kyiv. Yikes.

They’ve done this quite a few times

 

[Charmender]

Oh yea. But... It does make sense if this policy is pre-qualification of some kind of intervention in the future in Central Asia if Putin decides testing NATO is not in his favor after Ukraine settles down.

In fact. Russia over the last year has been making statements and policy regarding Central Asia that is IMHO pretty suspect.

Yeah agreed...but it's more like a signal rather than something enabling.

 

[Snowfall]

Yeah agreed...but it's more like a signal rather than something enabling.

I question the timing more than anything, why not do this pre-Crimea?

 

[DarkNoon]

I question the timing more than anything, why not do this pre-Crimea?

Yes... Which is why my second thought was, this isn't about Ukraine. But perhaps Central Asia. They certainly been laying the ground work for it over a year or so.

Could be wrong. This could just be nothing and empty rhetoric too as I initially thought.

 

[Snowfall]

Yes... Which is why my second thought was, this isn't about Ukraine. But perhaps Central Asia. They certainly been laying the ground work for it over a year or so.

Could be wrong. This could just be nothing and empty rhetoric too as I initially thought.

My question then is why? Because they’ve already used the ethnic Russians excuse in Ukraine and Georgia so it doesn’t make much sense since the precedent is already there.

 

[DarkNoon]

My question then is why? Because they’ve already used the ethnic Russians excuse in Ukraine and Georgia so it doesn’t make much sense since the precedent is already there.

I suppose the phrase "if it ain't broke don't fix it" comes straight to mind.

Perhaps this "excuse" just works all to well for them, particularly, and most likely for their domestic audience (Russians) to gain favor of foreign intervention. Protecting your fellow Russians seems to gloss over well with the Russian people when it comes to foreign intervention support.

It wouldn't really be about winning global audience, as pointed out Russia could give two shits what the world thinks. But it definitely cares at least a little about what it's people think/support.

Again. It worked well in many other countries, so, why change it up when apply expansionist logic/propaganda already proven to work, just copy paste into the Central Asian theater.

Which looks like kinda exactly what their doing in slow motion. Smart. Many won't notice. But I notice everything.

 

[Snowfall]

I suppose the phrase "if it ain't broke don't fix it" comes straight to mind.

Perhaps this "excuse" just works all to well for them, particularly, and most likely for their domestic audience (Russians) to gain favor of foreign intervention. Protecting your fellow Russians seems to gloss over well with the Russian people when it comes to foreign intervention support.

It wouldn't really be about winning global audience, as pointed out Russia could give two shits what the world thinks. But it definitely cares at least a little about what it's people think/support.

Again. It worked well in many other countries, so, why change it up when apply expansionist logic/propaganda already proven to work, just copy paste into the Central Asian theater.

Which looks like kinda exactly what their doing in slow motion. Smart. Many won't notice. But I notice everything.

Yeah maybe something to remind people why they’re fighting too since the war is starting to get unpopular.

 

[Snowfall]

Can’t find it on the English version of TASS so here’s the Russian head/byline instead, as translated:

“

A law has been signed that allows the involvement of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to protect Russians abroad​

According to the document, state bodies, by the decision of the president, will take measures to protect Russian citizens in case of their arrest, criminal and other prosecution by the courts of other countries”

Excuse me, what?

https://tass.ru/politika/27524989

Reading more into this it makes even less sense, I thought it was about protecting Russian citizens in general, not just about protecting Russias who were arrested.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Reading more into this it makes even less sense, I thought it was about protecting Russian citizens in general, not just about protecting Russias who were arrested.

I'd like to see a more thorough article on this, especially something that goes into what exactly the law says.

 

[Lostpuppy]

Can’t find it on the English version of TASS so here’s the Russian head/byline instead, as translated:

“

A law has been signed that allows the involvement of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to protect Russians abroad​

According to the document, state bodies, by the decision of the president, will take measures to protect Russian citizens in case of their arrest, criminal and other prosecution by the courts of other countries”

Excuse me, what?

https://tass.ru/politika/27524989

So if Germany or Poland holds Russian agents invokved with aircraft bombings and other asdoeted nasty business, Does this mean Russia has validated attacking?

 

[Snowfall]

I'd like to see a more thorough article on this, especially something that goes into what exactly the law says.

New Law Gives Kremlin Expanded Power to Use Force to Defend Russians Abroad - Jamestown

jamestown.org

I feel like this is a pretty good analysis, basically attempting to encourage countries to not cooperate with the ICC, as well as a response to tanker seizures to make countries think if they arrest the crew the Russians could take action. It also point out they gave Putin the power to use Russian troops on foreign soil in 2008, so this is 100% a symbolic bill rather than an actual practical change.

 

[DrMantisToboggan]

An interesting take from Responsible Statecraft. A few quotes stood out to me….

“Despite this, Moscow has not targeted Ukrainian headquarters in Kyiv precisely because of the likelihood that U.S. and other NATO soldiers and intelligence officers would be killed, risking drastic escalation in response by the West.”

“If the Trump administration does not re-engage in the peace process, then within the next week or so it may likely face a choice between a humiliating retreat and a much deeper and more dangerous military commitment to Ukraine, with the serious possibility of direct war with Russia.”

Thoughts, comments, concerns?

The US suggests it might dump talks as Russia escalates war

Rubio's ominous comments about the future of negotiations, coupled with Moscow urging US and European diplomats to leave Kyiv, spell darkness ahead

responsiblestatecraft.org