🗣️ | UA-NATO/RU | Signs of Pre-Crisis Environment | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

[alphaecho]

@Noel reports: Zelensky says Russia answered Ukraine’s full ceasefire proposal with new strikes and attacks across Donetsk, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. He said Russia halted no form of military activity and Ukraine will act in kind, with further responses determined by the overnight and tomorrow’s situation. Zelensky said Kyiv is ready for peace, but Moscow’s parade now depends on Ukraine.

 

[NuclearID]

This is the new Analysis thread. Refreshed Ukraine threads.

 

[NuclearID]

A lot of drone activities lately on NATO's Eastern Flank. Paired with all the military drills occuring on the Eastern front as well. Russia probably trying to take a peak at NATO exercises & test readiness.

 

[NuclearID]

A lot of drone activities lately on NATO's Eastern Flank. Paired with all the military drills occuring on the Eastern front as well. Russia probably trying to take a peak at NATO exercises & test readiness.

Things that make you go hmmmm....

Russia’s UN ambassador told the Security Council that Moscow had information Ukraine planned to launch military drones from Latvia and other Baltic states. He warned NATO membership would not protect them from retaliation. Latvia rejected the claim as “pure fiction,” and the U.S. rebuked the threat.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2056837002725659000

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Things that make you go hmmmm....

Russia has made these claims before. Not dismissing. Just noting.

 

[RiffRaff]

Russia has made these claims before. Not dismissing. Just noting.

They have. They have also used drills as cover for real military maneuvers (Ukraine, for one example). Just another rung on the ladder to World War 3 that we are slowly climbing.

 

[NuclearID]

A lot of drone activities lately on NATO's Eastern Flank.

Told you so. I knew I was seeing a pattern in my reporting.

Since mid April, the Norwegian F35 fighters, which are in the so calledQRA readinessat Evenes, deployed almost daily to "stop" Russian military aircraft.

Rykker ut daglig for å avskjære russiske fly: – Livredd ukrainske droner

På kort tid har det vært en kraftig økning i antall Nato-oppdrag for norske jagerfly. Ekspert sier Russland frykter ukrainske droner og missiler skal nå helt fram til nordområdene.

www.nrk.no

 

[Snowfall]

Since mid April, the Norwegian F35 fighters, which are in the so calledQRA readinessat Evenes, deployed almost daily to "stop" Russian military aircraft.

Rykker ut daglig for å avskjære russiske fly: – Livredd ukrainske droner

På kort tid har det vært en kraftig økning i antall Nato-oppdrag for norske jagerfly. Ekspert sier Russland frykter ukrainske droner og missiler skal nå helt fram til nordområdene.

www.nrk.no

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch @Sentry

The statement from the government says this is Russia’s response to Ukrainian strikes in the northern part of Russia, not a threat to Norway.

 

[NuclearID]

The statement from the government says this is Russia’s response to Ukrainian strikes in the northern part of Russia, not a threat to Norway.

It's not just Norway. It's Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Romania are literally on a daily now getting drones entering their airspace. Wasn't like this not even two weeks ago.

We are entering a new stage. What it is, idk yet. Don't think anyone does, other than the status quo is changing.

So. Expand the line of thought or reasoning much beyond Norway or their very over simplified reasoning just for themselves, not including the rest of the Eastern Flank Nations over the last few weeks.

Norways excuse would be nice/make sense if it was just them. But it's not. It's almost all of the Eastern front. So. Not buying it.

 

[Snowfall]

It's not just Norway. It's Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Romania are literally on a daily now getting drones entering their airspace. Wasn't like this not even two weeks ago.

We are entering a new stage. What it is, idk yet. Don't think anyone does, other than the status quo is changing.

So. Expand the line of thought or reasoning much beyond Norway or their very over simplified reasoning just for themselves, not including the rest of the Eastern Flank Nations over the last few weeks.

Norways excuse would be nice/make sense if it was just them. But it's not. It's almost all of the Eastern front. So. Not buying it.

The statement from them falls in line with the rest of it though, Ukraine is launching a lot of drone strikes in the northwestern portion of Russia. As a result Russia has increased surveillance out of fear their strategic facilities in the northwest will be targeted, and NATO has had to target drones from Ukraine that have been affected by electronic warfare.

 

[NuclearID]

The statement from them falls in line with the rest of it though, Ukraine is launching a lot of drone strikes in the northwestern portion of Russia. As a result Russia has increased surveillance out of fear their strategic facilities in the northwest will be targeted, and NATO has had to target drones from Ukraine that have been affected by electronic warfare.

Okay. Let's say this is the case. Still not good. Still the status qoe is changing. Still requires closer monitoring. More so since everyone is distracted over Iran.

How I see it. Doesn't matter who's right here. End result/analysis the same.

 

[WD_Gaster]

Please let it be conventionally armed. I'm not ready.

 

[Snowfall]

Please let it be conventionally armed. I'm not ready.

They were. Judging by the videos that we’ve seen so far looks like there was some sort of issue with it compared to previous uses.

 

[DrMantisToboggan]

Does anyone know if the Russia-Belarus nuclear drills have wrapped up? What worries me is that they were moving munitions “to the field,” which is usually a sign of an imminent escalation. Wether or not they put them back when they were done is anyone’s guess…..

Thoughts?

 

[Charmender]

Okay. Let's say this is the case. Still not good. Still the status qoe is changing. Still requires closer monitoring. More so since everyone is distracted over Iran.

How I see it. Doesn't matter who's right here. End result/analysis the same.

This is nothing compared to the risk we had in those days when russian drones were costantly entering and crushing into Romanian soil.
Russia barks because for now this is the only real capability they have, unless they wanna go nuclear, which would result in MAD.
Don't think that Putin has gone that crazy, yet.

 

[Charmender]

Does anyone know if the Russia-Belarus nuclear drills have wrapped up? What worries me is that they were moving munitions “to the field,” which is usually a sign of an imminent escalation. Wether or not they put them back when they were done is anyone’s guess…..

Thoughts?

Ended on Thursday.
We have already seen this in 2024.

If Russia is moving assets to do something more than a drill, we would know

 

[Snowfall]

Does anyone know if the Russia-Belarus nuclear drills have wrapped up? What worries me is that they were moving munitions “to the field,” which is usually a sign of an imminent escalation. Wether or not they put them back when they were done is anyone’s guess…..

Thoughts?

Yeah they ended the 21st. I don’t think anyone actually knows what they moved to the field, but the fact security was so light in the pictures we saw indicates they were more than likely dummy warheads as typical.

 

[Snowfall]

This is nothing compared to the risk we had in those days when russian drones were costantly entering and crushing into Romanian soil.
Russia barks because for now this is the only real capability they have, unless they wanna go nuclear, which would result in MAD.
Don't think that Putin has gone that crazy, yet.

Also the Latvian government collapsed as a result of a stray drone from a Ukrainian strike a couple days prior to the Russian UN accusation. It’s no coincidence Russia took the opportunity to try to sow more chaos.

 

[Charmender]

Also the Latvian government collapsed as a result of a stray drone from a Ukrainian strike a couple days prior to the Russian UN accusation. It’s no coincidence Russia took the opportunity to try to sow more chaos.

Yeah I mean it's like 4 years that they're campaigning and using these opportunities to spread panic.
With the first occasion being the masterpiece that was the disinformation and saber ratting campaign that started after the Ukranian missile that landed in Poland killing 2 farmers.
Which is something really effective, thanks to the mainstream media and the X's blullshit...as always.

The end analysis is the same...Russia is lacking the possibility to prolong the war with Ukraine due to the lack of manpower.
It could be covered by a new "voluntary enrollment" campaign which would be a disaster for the internal stability.

They don't have the means (now) to do anythinng more than fearmongering.
Of course they could bomb the balcans, and throw a nuke in Kiev, they can do that, to enter a war that they cannot win and will result in a disaster.
Doesn't look like this is what they're looking for, they had 3 full years to do so...from 1 year on that window has closed.

 

[Lostpuppy]

Grab a coffee, i found a report/review of a perspective of
“

West could sleepwalk into a Doomsday war with Russia – it’s time to wake up​

Published: May 26, 2016 5.32am EDT”

Why read? The report is interesting in how it forshadows all that is happening. It was written 10 years ago! Perspectives on Russia, Syria, etc.

West could sleepwalk into a Doomsday war with Russia – it’s time to wake up

A number of tripwires could set off a chain of events leading to war.

theconversation.com