US-Israel (&) Iran-Lebanon | "Understanding" Deal May Be Signed Soon | May 27th/June 14th | Analysis

[RiffRaff]

You very well could be right, however I don't think the left would fall for a diversionary tactic like that anymore. If gas is still hovering around $5 a gal. and the price of commodities keeps going up that is what is going to influence the midterms, and the Democrats are pushing that hard right now.

I think that ship has sailed. Even if all shipping lanes were to return to normal operation today, it will take months to get supplies moving again. I heard a specialist on maritime shipping on a podcast state that for every day the Strait of Hormuz is closed it's one week to get ships moving normally again. If that formula holds true, it puts us well past election day.

Of course, the justification for an "Oct Surprise" could be the high prices. We had to do it because we will not be held hostage by Iran. That type of thing, but again, I don't think the left will follow the whole "Rally Behind the Flag" strategy that has been done in the past.

I just pray that when the Democrats gain power, they don't hamstring the President by impeachment proceedings and cutting off funding for Isreal, the US military and friendly gulf countries. The house just passed a war powers resolution to do just that. If this happens Iran will get the bomb. IMO

I think that ship has also sailed, and Iran will become a nuclear power regardless, shy of the US or Israel nuking the entire country

Aren't the ceasefire and negotiations what the US is doing now. I don't think that is working out very well. The President is saying that the Iranians want a peace deal as they are launching salvos of missiles and drones at US and friendly forces.

Yeah, it's really difficult to believe anything coming from either the US or Iranian governments right now. Too much contradicting information flying around.

As for the unmitigated disasters in Vietnam and Afghanistan. The US never invaded North Vietnam, (which we should have), we bombed them into submission I think it was three times to get them to the peace table, kind of like we are doing now, and all they did was rearm and rebuild.

No, We didn't invade North Vietnam, but we did invade Cambodia and Laos in order to fight North Vietnam, and the US got its ass handed to it. I still remember watching the video of the last helicopter leaving the roof of the US embassy on the evening news in 1975.

In Afghanistan the Taliban were deposed from Kabul practically overnight and chased into the mountains, which is what should happen in Iran IMO.

Iran is significantly more technologically advanced, organized, and capable of defending themselves the the Taliban ever was. Yet we spent 20 years in Afghanistan. For what?

Let the Iranian general army maintain order, paid by the US and surrounding countries (the Saudis are rich aren't they) and let the surrounding gulf countries sort out the political BS. Whether Iran ends up with a king, president or prime minister, who cares as long as they are not chanting "Death to America." and have friendly relations with the surrounding countries.

You never let the military function as civilian law enforcement. Ever. The goals are different; the methodology is different; the training is different. It's simply a very bad idea.

I agree that 50,000 US troops is not enough for an invasion, but I believe Isreal has called up around 400,000 and what about the other gulf countries that we have been arming and training for years. It's time to pay the piper. IMO

That's a lot of bodies coming home in flag-draped boxes.

 

[william]

I think that ship has sailed. Even if all shipping lanes were to return to normal operation today, it will take months to get supplies moving again. I heard a specialist on maritime shipping on a podcast state that for every day the Strait of Hormuz is closed it's one week to get ships moving normally again. If that formula holds true, it puts us well past election day.

I agree.

I think that ship has also sailed, and Iran will become a nuclear power regardless, shy of the US or Israel nuking the entire country

I guess the question then is are they crazy enough to use it knowing Isreal will massively retaliate?

Yeah, it's really difficult to believe anything coming from either the US or Iranian governments right now. Too much contradicting information flying around.

I agree.

No, We didn't invade North Vietnam, but we did invade Cambodia and Laos in order to fight North Vietnam, and the US got its ass handed to it. I still remember watching the video of the last helicopter leaving the roof of the US embassy on the evening news in 1975.

I disagree with this. The north Vietnamese were using Cambodia and Laos to smuggle troops and equipment into south Vietnam and the US went in to interdict it. It wasn't an invasion per say. As I remember it was a big scandal in Washington at the time because they tried to do it on the sly and got caught.

Iran is significantly more technologically advanced, organized, and capable of defending themselves the the Taliban ever was. Yet we spent 20 years in Afghanistan. For what?

I agree. We should have got out after kicking the Taliban out of Kabul and bombing the al Qaeda training camps to dust. Just send over a few B52s if they try to reconstitute.

You never let the military function as civilian law enforcement. Ever. The goals are different; the methodology is different; the training is different. It's simply a very bad idea.

Sure you do. Marshall Law with Uncle Sam watching till a government can be formed.

That's a lot of bodies coming home in flag-draped boxes.

That is the price you are willing to pay when you raise your right hand. The object though is to "make the other dumb bastard die for his country."

 

[william]

To even utilize the advantages of desert warfare in northern Iran we would have to launch an unprecedented ground invasion from the Iraq border, which would still leave you in the shadow of the Zagros mountains for the entire operational width of Iran with little means of securing prime logistics hubs and highways without severe unconventional resistance and conventional. Not to mention that if you do find yourself in the Iranian deserts, you are going to be facing some of the hottest recorded temperatures in history. The mountains especially along the coast are ripe with vegetation and ravines, natural occurring caves, making anyone who controls the mountains have an instant advantage in movement and rotation. Repeat this process after a securing a beachhead in Bandar Abbas and you can start to see how this would require at minimum tenfold the capacity we have in the region right now, and a severe degradation of Iranian logistical efforts before this would even be a 50/50 chance at success.

I don't think Iran is any hotter than Iraq, is it? I'm not sure what Iran has in armored divisions, but I do know the US decimated the Iraqi armor when we fought them and we have the advantage of air superiority, as we did then. This could be done. We just have to have the balls to do it.

 

[RiffRaff]

Sounds like we agree on most of this. A couple of disagreements I still have:

Sure you do. Marshall Law with Uncle Sam watching till a government can be formed.

Martial law is not the same as law enforcement. It's a temporary military dictatorship with civilians having few if any rights. The military training and methodology are not even close to law enforcement.

That is the price you are willing to pay when you raise your right hand. The object though is to "make the other dumb bastard die for his country."

Yes, but not for the corporations and top 1% wealthy who are making billions off those dead bastards. That's not what they signed up for.

 

[Peter Griffin]

I don't think Iran is any hotter than Iraq, is it? I'm not sure what Iran has in armored divisions, but I do know the US decimated the Iraqi armor when we fought them and we have the advantage of air superiority, as we did then. This could be done. We just have to have the balls to do it.

Depends, Western Iran near the border with Iraq yes. Dasht-e Lut in the East however, is home to the hottest recorded surface temps coming in at 80.4 C. It's also uninhabited. So unless we plan on driving and flying our vehicles through 300 miles of wasteland that also has extremely dry thick air and the ability to burn any exposed skin on the touch, we are going to be going through the mountains. and lots of them. That means light infantry with minimal or no armor support. Rigorous mountain training AND desert training at the Brigade and Div level more than just mountaineering courses. Iran is a logistical nightmare for even the most well prepared and motivated military. This historical precedent + the advent of modern warfare being much easier to replicate on a dispersed and commercial level (ESPECIALLY if Iran can mobilize and rally the populace as Ukraine has to produce arms and machinery during wartime) does not make it an easy nut to crack. Planners who aren't tied to a reason to push for war with Iran are aware of these risks as well IMO.

 

[Peter Griffin]

I don't think Iran is any hotter than Iraq, is it? I'm not sure what Iran has in armored divisions, but I do know the US decimated the Iraqi armor when we fought them and we have the advantage of air superiority, as we did then. This could be done. We just have to have the balls to do it.

Comparing Iraq and Iran is not really useful. 4x the size. Completely different in means of motivation, grips on power, ideology terrain, etc. Iraq was a Lateral conflict, We had a clear direction of attack and they had a clear area of defense. Euphrates and Tigris, Permittable access to highways and service roads for our vehicles. Compare that to Iran, where any prospective beachhead would be met with immediate risk of encirclement and encroaching harassment from modern drones and missiles. Even if we do secure a beachhead and begin the main push north to secure vital rail and motorways, we will have to contend with attacks from both of our flanks and largely depend on Air support being enough to stop the Iranians from targeting our rear echelon support that the forward push will be extremely dependent on. And unless the US has thousands of fiber optic drone interceptors laying around, I don't really see how that is going to work out. We can have balls but without brains we are going to end up with 1000s of widows and broken families in any full scale conflict with Iran.

 

[GBS61]

I don't think Iran is any hotter than Iraq, is it? I'm not sure what Iran has in armored divisions, but I do know the US decimated the Iraqi armor when we fought them and we have the advantage of air superiority, as we did then. This could be done. We just have to have the balls to do it.

Iraq didn't have allies like China, Russia, North Korea; I believe Iran is more powerful than Iraq was at the time, and they are especially crazier.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Not to make light of these "Self Defense" strikes but when both sides think/say they are reacting proportionally, and still maintain that they are seeking dialogue in good faith, Doesn't that look a LOT like stalling? Seems like both sides are seeing the need to prepare for what's to come/provoke a full confrontation to steer their momentum before losses start to add up? It might not be the sudden explosion of conflict that we may be expecting but a slow slide into uncontained provocations that cannot be reversed.

 

[Irag8er]

they are seeking dialogue in good faith

Or…..it could be this
Or….

LOT like stalling

My head hurts

 

[Peter Griffin]

Or…..it could be this
Or….

My head hurts

 

[Dr Arthur]

Iraq didn't have allies like China, Russia, North Korea; I believe Iran is more powerful than Iraq was at the time, and they are especially crazier.

And the USA may find this out to their own risk

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

and the US got its ass handed to it.

Well, that was the result of politicians, not military failure.

Same thing that is happening in the US/Iran war.

 

[Sidney Reilly]

Trump says he warned Netanyahu that if he went back to war with Iran, he might find himself fighting alone — Axios

Trump says he warned Netanyahu that if he went back to war with Iran, he might find himself fighting alone — Axios

That's rich. Israel gets attacked by Iran and then Israel responds. Then U.S. Army helicopter gets shot down and the U.S. can now respond. The hypocrisy.

I must live in La-La Land. I guess if Israel wants to keep getting military support, money, and weapons from the U.S. then they must obey "daddy" Trump.

 

[Ben Dhyani]

Iran vows response after US launches strikes over downing of helicopter

Lebanon's Health Ministry said the toll from Israeli attacks on the country since March 2 has reached 3,666 dead.

www.aljazeera.com

US strikes after downing of helicopter, Tehran vows response​

The United States military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) said it carried out “self-defence strikes” against Iran in response to what it said was the downing by Iranian forces of a US attack helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US had chosen to “test our determination” and the Iranian armed forces would “leave no attack or threat unanswered”, adding: “Leave our region if you want to be safe.”

 

[Yingyang]

Iran vows response after US launches strikes over downing of helicopter

Lebanon's Health Ministry said the toll from Israeli attacks on the country since March 2 has reached 3,666 dead.

www.aljazeera.com

US strikes after downing of helicopter, Tehran vows response​

The United States military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) said it carried out “self-defence strikes” against Iran in response to what it said was the downing by Iranian forces of a US attack helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US had chosen to “test our determination” and the Iranian armed forces would “leave no attack or threat unanswered”, adding: “Leave our region if you want to be safe.”

Any evidence of helicopter incident?

 

[Ben Dhyani]

Any evidence of helicopter incident?

This.... According to US officials, Iran used a drone to launch the attack on the helicopter. But it is not clear whether the Iranian drone had deliberately attacked, an unnamed US official told CBS News, the BBC's US partner.
The semi-official Mehr News Agency reported that Iran had not claimed responsibility for the downed aircraft.

US and Iran exchange fire after American patrol helicopter downed in Hormuz

President Donald Trump earlier accused Iran of shooting down the US helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz and vowed to respond.

www.bbc.com

 

[Yingyang]

This.... According to US officials, Iran used a drone to launch the attack on the helicopter. But it is not clear whether the Iranian drone had deliberately attacked, an unnamed US official told CBS News, the BBC's US partner.
The semi-official Mehr News Agency reported that Iran had not claimed responsibility for the downed aircraft.

US and Iran exchange fire after American patrol helicopter downed in Hormuz

President Donald Trump earlier accused Iran of shooting down the US helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz and vowed to respond.

www.bbc.com

Yeah thought so. Our reports claim shahed drone. If true which i seriously doubt , the collision was accidental. Helicopter in wrong spot at wrong time. This drone to my knowledge has a decent warhead on it, and used for stationary targets. Sounds like bs , especially if crew survived.
Must have clipped tail or rotors crossing paths. If true at all

 

[Winnitude]

Yeah thought so. Our reports claim shahed drone. If true which i seriously doubt , the collision was accidental. Helicopter in wrong spot at wrong time. This drone to my knowledge has a decent warhead on it, and used for stationary targets. Sounds like bs , especially if crew survived.
Must have clipped tail or rotors crossing paths. If true at all

This is also sort of along the lines of my thinking. Right after Trump makes a big political show about pulling out and his phone call where he tells Netanyahu he'll be fighting alone goes public an American helicopter is reportedly downed by a shahed with no casualties and thus no need for publicly accessible evidence of the incident, justifying dragging the US back in.

While notably the US continued building up assets the entire time despite what Trump was saying to the public.

To me this reads as a politically convenient report that allows Trump/the US to continue their existing "plan" with renewed political justification.

 

[Yingyang]

Trump says Iran will 'pay the price' and claims they have 'taken too long' to agree to a deal

The president's comments came after U.S. forces on Tuesday evening launched strikes against Iran.

www.cnbc.com

Finally

 

[william]

Not to make light of these "Self Defense" strikes but when both sides think/say they are reacting proportionally, and still maintain that they are seeking dialogue in good faith, Doesn't that look a LOT like stalling? Seems like both sides are seeing the need to prepare for what's to come/provoke a full confrontation to steer their momentum before losses start to add up? It might not be the sudden explosion of conflict that we may be expecting but a slow slide into uncontained provocations that cannot be reversed.

I agree, "slippery slope", finish it! Trump is always talking about being a winner so win it! None of this pause to negotiate crape! Surrender or die!