🗣️ | US-Israel/Iran | Full Scale War Still Seems Imminent as Deterrence Erodes & Brinkmanship Intensifies | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

[william]

Im not sure where this is going or supposed to go.

Even if you despise the President, who amongst us seriously thinks Trump turned down his current air limo or his new “pimp my rider” aero deluxe from friendly arabs to, all whilst being 80 years old and 1000 lbs overweight, climb through service doors and hatches to ride the luggage cart, in the back with said luggage, around the airport tarmac?

Redundance and deception are commonalty used by the SS for all presidents and policy and tactics should NOT be publicly aired. If the various "news" outlets would have found out about the switch, would they have aired it? I think yes!

 

[william]

The USS George Washington carrier group crossed Singapore toward the Indian Ocean after leaving Da Nang. Reporting indicates it is intended to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has spent more than 260 days at sea and has operated in the Middle East since January.

This is a carrier rotation, not a confirmed net reinforcement.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2088216471751086188

I thinks we're going to have a new generation of "BABY BOOMERS" when the Lincoln comes home.

 

[Torch]

I thinks we're going to have a new generation of "BABY BOOMERS" when the Lincoln comes home.

They are nowhere near the record which iirc, is around 350 days: USS Midway.

(Of course someone will google fack check it….)

That said, they have been gone and in action a very long time, esp considering the constant drone strikes.

 

[GBS61]

They are nowhere near the record which iirc, is around 350 days: USS Midway.

(Of course someone will google fack check it….)

That said, they have been gone and in action a very long time, esp considering the constant drone strikes.

The USS Midway's (CV-41) longest deployment reached an exceptional 332 days (nearly 11 months) between 1972 and 1973 at the height of the Vietnam War.

Mission Context: This extended deployment took place from 1972 to 1973 from the Yankee Station naval air station in Southeast Asian waters, conducting continuous and intense air operations. Historical Status:

This extended 332-day deployment remains one of the longest in Cold War history for a U.S. aircraft carrier, surpassing other extended deployments of the same period, such as that of the USS Coral Sea (329 days).

 

[Torch]

Qatar denies it is detaining three Iranian bomber pilots​

The diplomatic friction comes as broader peace efforts face difficulties ahead of a key deadline. A 60-day negotiating window established under a mid-June memorandum of understanding expires on Monday with few direct talks having happened, leaving maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a trickle.

Qatar denies it is detaining three Iranian bomber pilots

Iran says Qatar is holding three pilots who were shot down in March. Doha decries 'misleading statements'.

www.aljazeera.com

The way Iran gets to have 3 missing airmen is by sending 4 to bomb a US Base. Brave but stupid, they flew F-5s and SU-24’s. They might has well been in the Wright Flyer

That was a mission brief that must have really sucked…

 

[RiffRaff]

That is an odd statement as most consider 60% to be a short step to weapons grade.

60% is technically weapons grade since it can achieve fission, but the mass to energy ratio makes it hugely inefficient and wasteful. So it's not practical to use in an actual weapon.

 

[teekay99]

IRGC spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohsen Mohebbi said Iran would use “more destructive weapons” if another war begins, adding that missile warheads employed in a future conflict would be significantly more destructive than those used previously.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2090384422570783061

Is this potentially an Iranian version of a Potsdam Declaration or just smoke and mirrors?

 

[DarkNoon]

Is this potentially an Iranian version of a Potsdam Declaration or just smoke and mirrors?

Remember Diego Garcia. Iran was reported to have launched ballistic missiles at the joint U.S. and UK base nearly 4,000 km away.

I’m still skeptical that this necessarily proved Iran has an entirely new class of long range ballistic missile. It could have been an existing system pushed far beyond its previously declared range with a lighter payload or different flight profile. That would also fit with the fact that the attack failed to demonstrate anything resembling a reliable or accurate strike capability at that distance.

But that cuts both ways.

Maybe Iran really does possess longer range ballistic missiles that it simply has not shown us yet. We do not actually know the full extent of what Iran has developed or stored inside its mountain complexes.

If those systems exist, then Diego Garcia may not be the outer limit. Iran could potentially attempt strikes against parts of Europe, make a much more serious attempt against Diego Garcia itself, or reach other targets we previously assumed were outside its practical missile envelope.

So I would not necessarily interpret this as some Iranian version of the Potsdam Declaration. But I also would not automatically dismiss it as smoke and mirrors. There are still some very large unknowns surrounding Iran’s actual maximum missile range.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

A large Chinese oil tanker attempting to transit the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz reversed course after receiving a warning from the IRGC Navy. Iranian reporting said the vessel abandoned the route following Tehran’s directive.

Iran turned back a Chinese ship?

 

[DarkNoon]

Iran turned back a Chinese ship?

Yes. The report comes directly from an Iranian government outlet, which is why I’m not sure what incentive Tehran would have to falsely claim it turned back a Chinese vessel. They’re the ones making the claim themselves.

 

[DarkNoon]

Yes. The report comes directly from an Iranian government outlet, which is why I’m not sure what incentive Tehran would have to falsely claim it turned back a Chinese vessel. They’re the ones making the claim themselves.

After some thought. My working theory is that this may have been much less deliberate than Tehran now wants it to appear.

Iran has been operating with extremely localized authority throughout the war, so it is entirely possible that the unit on the ground challenged the vessel without fully realizing it was Chinese linked at the time.

Once the incident became public, Tehran then had every incentive to frame the action as intentional rather than admit that a local unit acted with incomplete information.

That would explain why a Chinese vessel was challenged despite Beijing being one of Iran’s most important external relationships, while also explaining why the encounter stopped short of actual violence.

It is still possible Iran wanted to pressure China into becoming more involved against the United States, but that requires more assumptions.

For now, my working theory is simple. Local action first. Strategic narrative second.

Unless China, the ship operator, or someone involved releases the communications from the encounter, we may never know for certain anyways, all theory here.