Were there every really any peace talks in the first place? Russia has no reason to negotiate peace at the moment. They believe they can absorb the economic and manpower impact the war is having.
as far as I’m aware, witkoff is supposed to go to Moscow before Kyiv. They’re not even going to Kyiv today. Please correct me if I’m wrong though
Everything is a negotiation, and while I appreciate this because life is always about negotiating deals with foreign nations to negotiating the cost of a car at the dealership.
By “new escalation,” you mean something tantamount to what happened in Fall, 2022 when they seriously considered using nukes?
A new setback for Russia would certainly give those advocating for nuclear use another argument.
) for nuclear use by mysterious people or forces from the deep state come from the same authors who associate Putin to literally god in Russia, with limitless powers. Which is contradictory by itself.
Tactical nuke use first. Absolutely the US first to use or israel. Definitely not your so called enemies.Russia will not nuke a neighboring country.
If they didn’t do it during the end of 2022 crisis, or when Ukraine invaded the Russian soil (right after the doctrine update) that now it would make even less sense from a strategic point of view.
Unless they plan to obliterate the whole Ukraine, which will come with direct physical consequences for them.
Not to mention the loss of critical “allies” like China, India and Turkey.
There’s been so many setbacks and consequent nuclear saber ratting on the Russian side during this four years that, it’s starting to be a redundant narrative.
Narratives of Putin being under pressure (or fearing to be hanged
Or the same media that tell the story of how Putin is scared to lose consensus within the population, but at the same time he’s not worried about the far bigger loss of consent that exploding nukes next to their door would have.
Then there’s the fact that the US will never accept it, Putin knows it.
Because the moment Russia uses a nuke without consequences, NK will invade SK and hit Japan, Pakistan will do the same with India (or viceversa).
China will invade Taiwan (which by itself is completely against the US economical interests, despite what someone at the WH is trying to sell) and potentially consider a military action against US assets in the pacific.
You're on a pro-Israel American site(The majority of members here—there are exceptions, obviously...), so they believe it's impossible for Israel or the US to use it. My two sure bets regarding the non-use of nuclear weapons are France and the United Kingdom; all the others are capable of using them.
I'm well aware where i am, and well aware majority opinion. Been here long enough voiceing
I would still argue the first to use nuclear weapons is still most likely either an extremist organization that gets their hands on one, or Pakistan.
A neighbouring country? No. No sign of that yet.
Everyone who has nuclear weapons are capable of using them.
I’m a bit confused here: there’s “no sign” that Russia is considering nuking a neighboring country, but yet signs that Russia is considering nuking Ukraine? Or am I misinterpreting this?
By neighbouring, I meant another country other than Ukraine. Yeah, I can see where I was not clear on that.
Gotcha. What are some signs you are seeing that indicate they’re thinking of “not a chance” vs” “we should consider it?” Are they policy changes, rhetorical statements, military movements? Is it something to start worrying about?
Ukraine is a neighbouring country of Russia, which by itself is already a huge problem for them regarding hypotetical nuclear use, without counting the rest.
Basically every discussion I’ve heard of it has been opinion pieces in the news, but every reported discussion amongst people who actually have classified intelligence on the situation do not seem to believe there’s any meaningful threat.
Today. I think that is the important qualification.
But we haven’t actually heard of debate. The only place it keeps being brought up is the news discussion on how Putin could escalate theoretically, rather than presenting evidence they are actually contemplating it. Look at the movement towards deterrence in 2022 when the west actively knew the Russians were debating it, there’s zero of that movement taking place today.
