From a purely strategic look, the US withdrawing from Europe lessens exposure and the chance for a nuclear conflict between Russia and the United States. Though there still is France and the UK to worry about.
This is why people shouldn't use Twitter OSINT. They always falsify or exaggerate claims and purposely never post their sources for those reasons. They're all what I would describe as parasitic that only create more harm. Vast, overwhelming majority of them at least.
I think people don’t realize a lot of these refineries get repaired relatively quickly as well.
It’s not for nothing though. Remember part of war doesn’t just happen at the front of supply lines.
theweek.com
nationalsecurityjournal.org
For sure, refining capacity is definitely impacted I’d just be curious to know how bad it actually is. The kremlin denies it, people in the west are over exaggerating, so I’m curious where in the middle the truth actually lies.It’s not for nothing though. Remember part of war doesn’t just happen at the front of supply lines.
This is impacting Russia civilian’s perceptions.
On top of that there is this recent milestone. Russian losses now have exceeded the siege of StalingradRussia is in the midst of a major fuel crisis
Russian President Vladimir Putin has admitted problems with the oil supply chain
These are blows to the home front that exceed just logistics and battlefield blows.
Russia's Losses in Ukraine Just Passed the Battle of Stalingrad — the Bloodiest Fight of World War II
Russia's losses in Ukraine have now passed the Battle of Stalingrad — 1.4 million casualties, with 30,000 falling monthly against just 27,000 recruits.
This is generating low level public dissatisfaction with the war and Putin. It is in no way generating the kinds of pressure to remove the government. But again it’s not for nothing.
I mean this is true, but again what else was expected after Finland and Sweden joined NATO and the deep mistrust between Russia and NATO exists. NATO can scream it’s a defensive alliance all it wants, but the Russians will never believe that so they’re going to respond reciprocally. As for right now, NATO has repeatedly stated Russia does not have the capability to expand forces in the north prior to the end of the war in Ukraine, and this is consistent with what we’ve seen there.
Well yes they certainly could ramp up the number of troops. And Finland has always been cognizant of this and they are probable the most prepared country in Europe. 70 % of finish men have gone through conscription and military service. 80% of the population say they would show up to defend their nation.
www.arctictoday.com
Russia can’t change the narrative that nato is a threat. It undergirds their national identity.
It is a short fall for Poland, just as the US is facing a short fall. Polish military gave i suppose clean audit, 208 missiles in there inventory currently.
It is true and if we are going to confront the little green men and and snuff it out. We damn well be ready to allow and help the Baltics do the dirty business required to for them to be successful in snuffing out this subversive activity.
It’s probably moderate to mild. In Crimea is where it is likely approaching severe.
This is more significant than it appears on the surface.
China has again formally warned Russia against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Senior Chinese officials confirmed to a Western government that Beijing had relayed the warning directly to Moscow ahead of this week’s NATO summit. Russia’s potential use of tactical nuclear weapons was also raised during at least one meeting between European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch @Sentry
I'm reading this as China warning the West that Russia is possibly going to use it, not China warning Russia not to use it. Diplomacy is about reading between the lines a lot of the time, in my opinion...
Possibly, maybe. I think if China was warning the West, they would have made their statement public. As it is, they had to be asked about it. Which indicates that it was originally intended just for Russia, but China isn't afraid to air their warning so everyone knows their own stance on the issue.
It was in relation to the latest round of saber rattling in the Russian media. Considering the amount of signaling the west did last time they thought the Russians were considering it, we would have heard about it.
I suppose. I just don't see China needing to warn Russia. The only reason to do this and “leak” it is to signal to the West that he is contemplating “it.”
Maybe. I agree in the sense that they cannot hide the physical action or preparation for using nuclear weapons without half the civilian satellite crawlers/groups going bananas. But simply contemplating it among senior staff around Putin could probably be covered up.
Ya know I was just going to point out that Belarus meeting. I think it would be an interesting thread to explore what extent Russia is becoming a vassal state of China. Between China supposedly protecting Lukashenko from reprisal by not joining the war in Ukraine, and now this it’s becoming increasingly clear Russia is becoming evermore subservient to China.
