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DEFCON 4 | Europe Crisis | December 2021

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Russia says it may be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in response to what it sees as NATO's plans to do the same.

www.reuters.com

Russia says it may be forced to deploy mid-range nuclear missiles in Europe

Russia said on Monday it may be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in response to what it sees as NATO's plans to do the same.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Drumboy44 said:
Russia says it may be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in response to what it sees as NATO's plans to do the same.

www.reuters.com

Russia says it may be forced to deploy mid-range nuclear missiles in Europe

Russia said on Monday it may be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in response to what it sees as NATO's plans to do the same.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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At this point I’m genuinely confused as to what exactly their point is here

This is a crisis completely fabricated by Russia, it’s like Putin had a schizophrenic episode and now he’s decided NATO is hellbent on nuking Russia when so far we’ve seen literally nothing military-wise from NATO
 
Train said:
At this point I’m genuinely confused as to what exactly their point is here

This is a crisis completely fabricated by Russia, it’s like Putin had a schizophrenic episode and now he’s decided NATO is hellbent on nuking Russia when so far we’ve seen literally nothing military-wise from NATO
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Do you deny western encroachment? This crisis is a symptom of that.
 
JPod said:
Do you deny western encroachment? This crisis is a symptom of that.
Click to expand...
NATO is less encroached on Russia's borders now than during the Soviet-era days. I agree with Train, that the Ukraine crisis is completely manufactured and perpetrated by Russia. NATO didn't move 100,000+ troops and hardware to Ukraine's borders - Russia did. Everything that has transpired since then has been reactionary on the part of NATO, the EU, and the US.
 
Drumboy44 said:
Russia says it may be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in response to what it sees as NATO's plans to do the same.

www.reuters.com

Russia says it may be forced to deploy mid-range nuclear missiles in Europe

Russia said on Monday it may be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in response to what it sees as NATO's plans to do the same.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...
Posturing or preparation? That is the question. And where is their proof that NATO has deployed IRBMs in Europe?
 
RiffRaff said:
NATO is less encroached on Russia's borders now than during the Soviet-era days. I agree with Train, that the Ukraine crisis is completely manufactured and perpetrated by Russia. NATO didn't move 100,000+ troops and hardware to Ukraine's borders - Russia did. Everything that has transpired since then has been reactionary on the part of NATO, the EU, and the US.
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True that west is less so now than during the cold war but only because the borders were literally touching. However the west is now closer post fall of ukraine than in the years before. So if we compare pre fall of Ukraine to post, there was more western encroachment even if it was not brought about by less than transparent means. Even if the fall of Ukraine to the west was natural (which I do not believe) well suddenly there is a new western ally on Russia's border where there wasn't I the 2 decades prior.
 
JPod said:
True that west is is less so now than during the cold war but only because the boarders were literally touching. However the west is now closer post fall of ukraine than in the years before. So if we compare pre fall of Ukraine to post, there was more western encroachment even if it was not brought about by less than transparent means. Even if the fall of Ukraine to the west was natural (which I do not believe) well suddenly there is a new western ally on Russia's border where there wasn't I the 2 decades prior.
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Maybe true. But running with your hypothesis for a minute, Russia is seriously overreacting to that "encroachment" by initiating what appears to be a massive invasion of a sovereign nation. Even it is a puppet government installed by the US, a Russian invasion of Ukraine is not the solution.

Russia perpetuated the crisis. Russia is escalating the crisis. I don't believe Russia's claims of NATO encroachment are the true motivation.

If that is a correct assessment - and I acknowledge it is merely a hypothesis - what is really driving Russia's behavior?

Distraction for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which would then provide a distraction for a Russian invasion of Ukraine? Something internal to Russia? What are we missing behind the scenes?
 
RiffRaff said:
Posturing or preparation? That is the question. And where is their proof that NATO has deployed IRBMs in Europe?
Click to expand...
This is what I’m concerned about.

Don’t be mistaken, I’m not denying that NATO being around Russia’s borders and sending out all this rhetoric is alarming to Russia. They probably see the response as warranted. But so far we’ve seen no concrete commitment to any type of physical action from NATO, let alone a military one as severe as deploying missiles.

Either:
  • There’s something we don’t know that Russia does and OSINT accounts have kept very fucking quiet about.
  • Russia is overreacting massively and is actually worried about NATO
  • They’re sabre-rattling. Posturing to try and sound scary so they can push NATO into accepting their terms that Ukraine cannot join the alliance. “Look guys, we have these scary new hypersonic missiles! Sure wouldn’t want them to be deployed, would you?”
I do understand why Russia doesn’t want Ukraine in NATO.
It’s the exact situation as us. Just as we don’t want Russians on our doorstep, they don’t want NATO on their doorstep.

But to me, either Russia has gone off the hook, or there’s more to this than meets the eye. But if the latter were the case I think we would be seeing more than just some recon planes flying around Ukraine.
 
RiffRaff said:
Maybe true. But running with your hypothesis for a minute, Russia is seriously overreacting to that "encroachment" by initiating what appears to be a massive invasion of a sovereign nation. Even it is a puppet government installed by the US, a Russian invasion of Ukraine is not the solution.

Russia perpetuated the crisis. Russia is escalating the crisis. I don't believe Russia's claims of NATO encroachment are the true motivation.

If that is a correct assessment - and I acknowledge it is merely a hypothesis - what is really driving Russia's behavior?

Distraction for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which would then provide a distraction for a Russian invasion of Ukraine? Something internal to Russia? What are we missing behind the scenes?
Click to expand...
Great questions.
However, assuming that western encroachment is the driving issue here (which it maybe or maybe not) is Putin wrong for wanting to stop it now before it's too late? For me I do agree with and believe that russia should invade ukraine IF they truly believe the Ukrainian government to be a western installed puppet government. The us has done invasions against these kind of puppet eastern backed/communist before so precedent is there and I would find it hypocritical to think otherwise. However if there were a vote or someway to show the will of the people (wanting a free Ukraine or to be part of russian again in a sense) then I would be fully against a russian invasion or for depending on the outcome. But there will be no vote. It is time to pick sides or so it would seem. The rhetoric is mounting.
 
Who needs an enemy when you have a friend like this!

Germany blocks Ukraine from purchasing defensive weapons via NATO support and procurement agency, defence minister Reznikov told
@FT
. 'They are still building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and blocking our defensive weapons. It is very unfair'
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1470291857984872459
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The US Santa needs to Fly his UPS 747s over with tons of ammo, Javelins and Stingers for Christmas.
 
EndGameWW3

@EndGameWW3
·
1h

Update: Ukraine
Flag of Ukraine

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Status-6

@Archer83Able
· 2h
The Kyiv authorities have initiated an inspection of the capital's bomb shelters. They also plan to launch information campaign and test sirens in the coming weeks to prepare residents for a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. https://korrespondent.net/city/kiev/4427075-rysk-vtorzhenyia-v-kyeve-protestyruuit-syreny-trevohy
 
Regarding North Stream 2 (as far as relevant to the Ukraine situation):


The video is in german, but you can use the auto-translation of the german subtitles to english. I just checked that they are good enough to correctly understand what's being said and this is the case. Most important part of the video is IMO the statement of new foreign minister Annalena Baerbock, who said (translation by me):
"And this means that, as things are at the moment, this pipeline cannot be approved because it does not meet the requirements of European energy law and that security issues have not yet been resolved."
Click to expand...
According to the video Baerbock added that there is still the agreement between the former german government and the government of the USA that in case of further escalations of the Ukraine situation this pipeline cannot start operating.


Further context:
During the first russian troop concentration at the borders of Ukraine earlier this year, there was a parliamentary debate about it. In this debate North Stream 2 was mentioned and Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, foreign policy expert of the liberal FDP suggested to use North Stream 2 to get leverage on Russia. Paraphrasing I'd summarize his speech that Germany could make the question of the usage of the pipeline after completion dependant on Russia's actions against Ukraine. After the operation of NS2 started, the amount of gas bought through that pipeline could be subject to the same reasoning - negative actions against Ukraine resulting in lesser (to none) gas acquired by NS2 and more by pipelines crossing through Ukraine.
(Addition by me, since I don't remember who said it in that debate: And there's still the option to build more LNG terminals to buy fracking gas from the USA.)
At the time of that debate the FDP was an opposition party - now in the new german administration the party is part of the ruling coalition.

[I apologize if some sentence have strange formulations or sound in any other way rather clunky. English is not my native language, so I only have my school english that's gotten a bit rusty over the years, so please bear with me.]
 
Gazprom has not filled up the gas silos in Germany, not because of the lack of approval of Nordstream 2,
but because freezing Europe is part of Putin's war plan.
 
DucknCover said:
Gazprom has not filled up the gas silos in Germany, not because of the lack of approval of Nordstream 2,
but because freezing Europe is part of Putin's war plan.
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Actually, I thought I just read something about Nordstream not going through because of legal issues in Europe. I don't really recall, so I may be mistaken.

In any event, Russia is not freezing Europe as part of a war plan. He would be doing it to let them know the consequences of irritating Russia.
 
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