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Discussions --Lead Up to Talks & US Military Intervention Against Iran Nuclear Facilities Threatened When Talks Fail

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Gargolu said:
ya it shouldn't be televised nor satalight info should be blocked from anyone knowing. cause if i was going to go to war why the hell should i have that for the world to see? play command and conquer much? or company of hero's?
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but it being televised isn't the issue here, the issue is that we live in a modern world where you can literally just watch this happen from a satellite image, or even without, information spreads so fast that sometimes just civilian videos of movements cross referenced with each other paints a decent picture. the world, or at the very least the nation being attacked, is going to have it "televised" no matter what, and the news discussions for us common folk aren't really changing anything
the only way to achieve what you are suggesting in the modern era is that all channels of information in all involved countries incl. private equipment as well would be locked down by the military of the attacking country so this both can't and shouldn't happen
 
william said:
I'm not a gamer myself. All thumbs and then I get PO'd when I try. More of a movie buff.
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You might like Command and Conquer actually. No mechanical skill needed, it's all thinking and strategy. Build X units of type Y, assign them to do Z, manage economy, (hopefully) win war. No like reaction times or aiming, you're basically just Commanding a military to Conquer.
Red Alert for DOS is my preferred CaC but I think they remade it for modern systems recently.
 
Socom7 said:
Didn't you have to file a flight plan for those missions? 'Cause okay, I'm willing to believe you didn't personally check for permission, but I'll bet my ass someone higher up the chain did before they sent you on your way.

Note: I'm not talking about exercises; I know nobody cares about those.

Oh come on, we're not counting the Teams. That's cheating. :ROFLMAO:

Trust me, I know all about it.

Yes. Allowing you to fly through their airspace carries diplomatic repercussions in that they're actively aiding one side of the conflict, which makes them a co-aggressor. This is the case of Belarus in the RU/UA war.
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Sometimes you file, sometimes you block file. Sometimes you lie. Sometimes you don’t file at all. I have done all of those.

Socom7 said:
Oh come on, we're not counting the Teams. That's cheating. :ROFLMAO:
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Lmao!!
 
william said:
Do you think it is even possible to be a surprise in the modern age anymore? Could those bombers leave Diago without anyone knowing?
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Well unless a Russia or Chinese sat might pick them up being gone. But depending on the gaps of their satellite the bombers would have a significant head start to Irans border.
Short of a visual sighting of them taking off or missing. They would be ghosts.
Remember how effective the Israel’s were at prosecuting Irans airspace. I think Diego Garcia is fairly good loc to launch from
 
Spyglass said:
This means it won’t be this weekend.

*Unless* we hear about schedules being cleared.

(this could also be misdirection)
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Or that’s what they want you to think


Edit: sorry Spyglass, I missed your last line and stepped on your post. My bad. I apologize.
 
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Spyglass said:
This means it won’t be this weekend.

*Unless* we hear about schedules being cleared.

(this could also be misdirection)
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Torch said:
Or that’s what they want you to think


Edit: sorry Spyglass, I missed your last line and stepped on your post. My bad. I apologize.
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alphaecho said:
BREAKING: Netanyahu set to visit White House on Monday

https://twitter.com/x/status/1908299583849197609
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🧠Analysis: Netanyahu's White House Visit – A Diplomatic Trip or Strategic Deception?
Today, Israeli Prime Minister announced that he will visit the White House this week. On the surface, this could signal a pause in tensions and reinforce that diplomacy is still being pursued.

👉 However, observers should approach this development with caution there is clear precedent for this type of move being used as a strategic ruse.


🔁 Historical Context:
Just last year, Netanyahu made a similar public announcement regarding a U.S. visit. That visit never happened. Instead, on the very day he was scheduled to depart, Israel launched military operations. The announcement lowered regional alert levels and lulled adversaries into a false sense of security before the operation began. This week trip could serve the exact same purpose.


🎭 Strategic Implications:
  • Signal restraint while final preparations are being made..
  • Encourage Iran to relax readiness or delay countermeasures..
  • Conceal final decision-making or launch windows from the public and media..


🎯 Bottom Line:
The timing and optics of this visit are not automatically de escalatory. They may indicate the opposite a deliberate strategy of misdirection to achieve surprise attack against Iran.

Iran and other actors would be wise not to assume a lack of immediate threat just because Netanyahu appears to be stepping away.
 
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Snowfall said:
So basically nothing is happening until after Monday
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We shall see if his plane makes it to US or makes sudden diversion to Israel. 👇
DarkNoon said:
🧠Analysis: Netanyahu's White House Visit – A Diplomatic Trip or Strategic Deception?
Today, Israeli Prime Minister announced that he will visit the White House this week. On the surface, this could signal a pause in tensions and reinforce that diplomacy is still being pursued.

👉 However, observers should approach this development with caution there is clear precedent for this type of move being used as a strategic ruse.


🔁 Historical Context:
Just last year, Netanyahu made a similar public announcement regarding a U.S. visit. That visit never happened. Instead, on the very day he was scheduled to depart, Israel launched military operations. The announcement lowered regional alert levels and lulled adversaries into a false sense of security before the operation began. This week trip could serve the exact same purpose.


🎭 Strategic Implications:
  • Signal restraint while final preparations are being made..
  • Encourage Iran to relax readiness or delay countermeasures..
  • Conceal final decision-making or launch windows from the public and media..


🎯 Bottom Line:
The timing and optics of this visit are not automatically de escalatory. They may indicate the opposite a deliberate strategy of misdirection to achieve surprise attack against Iran.

Iran and other actors would be wise not to assume a lack of immediate threat just because Netanyahu appears to be stepping away.
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I feel like we have enough in the region. Unprecedented truly. But who knows maybe we are still getting our ducks in a row. It will be a great feat to pull off after all.
 
DarkNoon said:
We shall see if his plane makes it to US or makes sudden diversion to Israel. 👇

I feel like we have enough in the region. Unprecedented truly. But who knows maybe we are still getting our ducks in a row. It will be a great feat to pull off after all.
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Fair point. To me it still seems like we’re strikes aren’t imminent but I don’t really know yet what’s going to indicate they are yet. It’s weird how little mainstream media coverage of the buildup there is though.
 
Snowfall said:
It’s weird how little mainstream media coverage of the buildup there is though.
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They may have asked the media to stay quiet about it, mostly, to keep the fluid situation as stable as possible. If people started panicking or if too many began reading about it, it could influence how things unfold.

👉 The White House probably wants as little attention on it as possible in order to control the narrative and ensure any resulting actions are guided internally, rather than shaped by outside influences like public reaction or opinion.

While the White House cannot constitutionally censor the media, it can (and historically has) requested media outlets to remain quiet for national security reasons. In such cases, some major outlets often cooperate quietly with the government during crises when national security is invoked, keeping a lid on coverage when asked to do so by the government. However people should remember the media is doing it willing and cannot be ordered to keep quite.
 
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DarkNoon said:
📣🇮🇷
Iran’s Chief of Staff: Our response to Trump stressed we seek peace in the region & don’t pursue nuclear weapons. No direct talks, but indirect talks possible. If US acts sincerely, talks can be held. US was most unreliable party in past negotiations. There’s no trust in them.

Video:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1908831542316609641
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📣Diplomatic Off-Ramps Appear Closed:
Iran’s Chief of Staff has publicly confirmed the regime’s stance: no direct talks with the United States. While they leave a narrow window open for indirect dialogue, Trump has already ruled that out. Indirect talks as stated by Trump are unacceptable.

The Iranian statement accuses the U.S. of being “the most unreliable party” in past negotiations and reaffirms Iran’s lack of trust, effectively shutting the door on meaningful diplomacy.

This (IMO) marks the final breakdown in efforts to resolve the crisis diplomatically. The United States has made its position clear: Iran must disarm its nuclear program or face consequences. Iran has responded with rejection, denial, and stall tactics.

We are now firmly in the realm of strategic decision making.

There are no off-ramps left unless Iran totally capitulates. Which, yea right, when hell freezes over will Iran capitulate it's nuclear program, let alone under duress.
 
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Iran’s tone “we seek peace” but “don’t trust the US” is classic diplomatic framing meant to deflect blame while holding firm. But it doesn’t change the bottom line.

This may very well be the final breakdown in diplomacy we are witnessing.
 
👀👇🙏

Thread 'A PLEA FOR DISCRETION... Regarding U.S. Military Movements in the Event of Strikes on Iran'

I want to make clear that what I’m saying here is done entirely of my own volition and does not reflect official policy from the @DEFCON Warning System or its Director, and that I am not staff. In fact, it may be in direct contradiction to the Director’s standing policy on open discussion and free speech.

But I feel I must speak up.

Should the United States initiate a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities or enter into direct military engagement I will refrain from posting any open-source, first-hand reports of U.S. or allied military movements during the initial phase of the...
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Look for:
  • airspace closures (esp. over Iran)
  • snap "military exercises" being announced (esp. in Iran and Israel, but also in other Gulf states)
  • major announcements on the civil defense front in Israel (eg. school closures, ban on public gatherings, etc.)
 
My personal DEFCON is at 3 right now. Which may not be accurate to the objective original requirements for defcon levels, but I think we are extremely close to spiraling into a global crisis, which itself has strong odds to then lead to a nuclear crisis. I suppose 4 is like the number that might make sense in that situation where we are fully heading into something that could turn nuclear and 3 would be after strikes. But my personal concern level and motivation to prep is at a 3 level.
I think it would be naive to assume Iran doesn't have a bomb.
 
Even if they have it, using it would definitely be national suicide.

There's a pretty clear choice for Iran here: Come to the direct negotiations and be prepared to submit to dismantling your nuclear program. If you don't, be prepared for a conventional strike to take out your capabilities. If you use a nuke, be prepared to be nuked back.

What would the Iranian nuclear target be? Israel? They have more nukes than you do. Hit a U.S. base? You're gonna get leveled.
 
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Winnitude said:
My personal DEFCON is at 3 right now. Which may not be accurate to the objective original requirements for defcon levels, but I think we are extremely close to spiraling into a global crisis, which itself has strong odds to then lead to a nuclear crisis. I suppose 4 is like the number that might make sense in that situation where we are fully heading into something that could turn nuclear and 3 would be after strikes. But my personal concern level and motivation to prep is at a 3 level.
I think it would be naive to assume Iran doesn't have a bomb.
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DEFCON is only for nuclear threats, and I doubt Iran currently has a working nuclear warhead that fits on one of their missiles and is ready for launch. That is, unless they bought one on Amazon from someone going by the user handle totallynotputin. Likewise, I don't see the US using nuclear weapons against Iran in a first-strike scenario.

IMO we should have been at DEFCON 4 ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, and that continues to hold true today, but I understand it's a subjective opinion.
 
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