Impending Oil Supply Shortages - Strat. Oil Res. |Updates

[william]

Oil Refinery Statistics in US 2026 | Capacity, Output & Key Facts​

The United States petroleum refining industry sits at a genuine inflection point in 2026 — one where decades of infrastructure dominance, record-breaking export performance, and some of the highest-capacity facilities on the planet are running alongside a wave of closures, shrinking margins, and a structural shift toward renewable fuels that is beginning to permanently reshape the domestic refining map.

Understanding the US refining industry in 2026 requires holding two realities simultaneously. On one hand, the country’s refining complex remains the most productive in the world: On the other hand, the critical margin between crude oil input costs and refined product selling prices — have been declining steadily since their post-pandemic peak in 2022, making marginal and mid-size refineries increasingly unviable. Refinery margins for gasoline and diesel fell approximately 26–29% year-over-year in 2024, and the EIA’s own forecasts project US refining capacity will shrink to approximately 17.9 million b/cd by end of 2025 — a 3% contraction driven entirely by closures. For the world’s largest refining nation, that is a significant structural adjustment — and it is happening faster than most market observers anticipated.

Oil Refinery Statistics in US 2026 | Capacity, Output & Key Facts - The World Data

Oil Refining in America 2026 The United States petroleum refining industry sits at a genuine inflection point in 2026 — one where decades of infrastructure dominance, record-breaking export performance, and some of the highest-capacity facilities on the planet are running alongside a wave of...

theworlddata.com

Refinery closures and rising consumption will reduce U.S. petroleum inventories in 2026 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

 

[Irag8er]

Oil in U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls below 300 million barrels, lowest since 1983​

Oil in U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls below 300 million barrels, lowest since 1983

U.S. presidents have increasingly ordered massive releases from the SPR in recent years.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Irag8er]

Depleted strategic oil reserve nears level that raises concerns about damage to caverns, operations​

Depleted strategic oil reserve nears level that raises concerns about damage to caverns, operations

The rapid drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve could damage the caverns that store the oil, experts warn.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Irag8er]

POTUS had to drain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to manage oil and gas prices domestically, while the Strait of Hormuz was in conflict. Oil from Venezuela will refill the SPR.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2094087636428468634

 

[RiffRaff]

Oil rationing is officially here:

https://www.jalopnik.com/.../costco-rationing-oil.../

US Strategic Petroleum Reserves hit 285.3 million barrels last week. The minimum level allowed is 252.4 million barrels. The US consumes approximately 20 million barrels per DAY. Do the math.

We are already seeing dire consequences of oil shortages in other countries. Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines have been experiencing disruptions in services and national emergencies. Other Southeast Asia countries are being impacted at various levels of severity. They are our canary.

I don't know how long it will be before US gasoline supplies are affected, but diesel is already above $6/gallon and US oil refineries are already at 98% capacity. So even bringing in new oil supplies will not correct the problem quickly.

My recommendations:
1: Schedule oil changes for your vehicles, even if they're not due.
2: Stockpile the type of oil and filters your vehicles so you have the capability to change your own oil if necessary.
3: Stockpile gasoline before prices start to follow diesel's trends. Make sure you add fuel stabilizer for long-term storage.

You should have all of this done by the end of this week.

4: Prepare for the possibility of a cascading failure of the supply chain if it gets to the point that trucks can't run due to the high cost or lack of diesel fuel. I don't know if this crisis will become so bad that it starts to impact residential electricity prices, but the potential is there. I strongly suggest preparing for an unprecedented long-term energy crisis.