Impending Oil Supply Shortages - Strat. Oil Res. |Updates

[RiffRaff]

Well Im not sure about y’all but in addition to a 55 gallon drum of Rotella, I picked up another 15 gallons of Rotella T5 and another case each of 10w40 (2 casesz) for my light trucks (Suburban and Yukon XL)

It sure did hurt but beats the alternative.

I just was thinking with the USA being energy independent (very much so) that we are going to have shortages (they are fairly tight already) its a man made issue.

If you do not have oil for your vehicles you should not count on your “Quikie Lubed” to have have it. Do something now before you need to buy a cheap discount stores band of liquid wax

Bear in mind that they saw this coming back in May when memos went out from several companies to their local stores warning them of upcoming oil shortages starting in September and to prepare accordingly. Some dealerships might not be able to perform oil changes when they're due.

We've had four months warning on this.

 

[RiffRaff]

How will this affect synthetic oil? I use a blend in my truck. I only have to change it twice a year.

I didn't go into any details, but according to a search, synthetic oil is going to be affected as well. I would love to know the science behind that, but I don't have time to research it right now.

 

[Torch]

I didn't go into any details, but according to a search, synthetic oil is going to be affected as well. I would love to know the science behind that, but I don't have time to research it right now.

Im wondering if it simply a suppy and demand issue. Synthetic will by short because the vast majority who use conventional (or a blend) will be forced to pay more and buy synthetic.

Supply and demand (?)

 

[Irag8er]

I didn't go into any details, but according to a search, synthetic oil is going to be affected as well. I would love to know the science behind that, but I don't have time to research it right now.

• Many synthetic oils are made from petroleum-derived feedstocks. Even though synthetic oil is highly refined or chemically engineered, much of its raw material ultimately comes from crude oil or natural-gas-based hydrocarbons.
• Refineries produce the starting chemicals. A crude-oil shortage canreduce availability of the base stocks and chemical intermediates used to manufacture synthetic lubricants.
• Prices can rise. Scarcer petroleum feedstocks increase production andtransportation costs, making synthetic oil more expensive.
• Supply chains are interconnected. A shortage of crude can also affect additives, packaging, transportation, and refinery capacity, creating additional constraints.

 

[william]

That is a great question. I have no idea. I'll see of I can find out.

I did a little digging, and this is what I found.

Yes, synthetic motor oil is currently affected by the global oil shortage, with supply disruptions expected to continue until at least mid-2027.​

Supply Chain Disruptions​

Synthetic motor oil relies heavily on Group III base oils, which are primarily sourced from the Middle East and South Korea. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, has disrupted these supplies, with Gulf-region base oils potentially running dry by June 2026. South Korean refiners, which supply roughly 30% of U.S. Group III base oils, also depend on Middle Eastern crude, and many refiners are prioritizing diesel and jet fuel production over base oils, further tightening supply

This is a little misleading though because apparently there are two groups of synthetic oil. Group III and Group IV or PAO. Group III is a highly refined mineral based oil and Group IV is not

• Group III oils are highly refined mineral oils produced via hydrocracking, offering performance close to synthetic oils.
• PAO (Polyalphaolefin) oils are synthetic, made through chemical polymerization, providing superior stability and oxidation resistance.
• Hydrocracking and hydroprocessing are advanced refining techniques that convert heavy fractions into high-quality, purified base oils like Group III.
• Group III oils are considered “synthetic” in some regions due to their refining process, but they are technically highly refined mineral oils.
• PAO oils are true synthetics, engineered from petrochemical bases, delivering consistent molecular structure and enhanced engine protection.

Base Oil Groups Explained: What ‘Group III’ and ‘PAO’ Actually Mean - OilSpec Guide

Narrowing down oil types, ‘Group III’ and ‘PAO’ have distinct features that can impact engine performance—discover what makes them different.

oilspecguide.com

Current Availability of PAO Synthetic Oil​

Yes — PAO synthetic oil is still available in the U.S. market, but supply is tighter than in past years, with higher prices and limited spot availability for premium grades.

Market status​

Recent data shows that PAO (Group IV) base oils remain in production and are being supplied to lubricant manufacturers, but global capacity is much smaller than for Group III oils, making them inherently more constrained. In North America, Q1 2026 saw U.S. PAO prices rise about 1.9% quarter‑on‑quarter to around USD 3,171/MT, supported by stronger automotive aftermarket demand and forward procurement by distributors. In June 2026, the U.S. Polyalphaolefin Price Index was up 20% QoQ, with “tighter spot availability” and “constrained prompt availability” noted in industry reports.

• Geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, including damage to Qatar’s Pearl GTL facility and Strait of Hormuz restrictions, have hit premium base oil production and shipping, indirectly affecting PAO supply.
• Global capacity for PAO is far smaller than for Group III oils, so even without major disruptions, availability is more limited
• Inventory balances are tight in some regions, with suppliers prioritizing allocations for high‑margin products.

Prices: Expect higher costs than in prior years, with some synthetic segments seeing 15–35%+ price increases in 2026.

Bottom line:

PAO synthetic oil is not “out of stock” in the U.S., but supply is tighter and prices are elevated due to structural capacity limits and geopolitical disruptions. For the best results, plan ahead and confirm availability with your oil supplier before placing large orders.

https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/polyalphaolefin-pao-1228

 

[william]

Im wondering if it simply a suppy and demand issue. Synthetic will by short because the vast majority who use conventional (or a blend) will be forced to pay more and buy synthetic.

Supply and demand (?)

You nailed it! The capacity to make PAO synthetic is just not there to make up the shortfall. We really need to start building more shit in America. IMO

 

[RiffRaff]

My oil change for our Outback cost over $100 today. Probably going to park it in the barn and use my company car whenever I can get away with it

 

[Dr Arthur]

My oil change for our Outback cost over $100 today. Probably going to park it in the barn and use my company car whenever I can get away with it

Serviced my Tuscon and it cost several hundred dollars. Am now getting around 7 litres per 100 km if I use high grade fuel and drive cautiously.