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Impending Oil Supply Shortages - Strat. Oil Res. |Updates

With Canadian and Venezuelan we have more than enough crude mix in the western hemisphere. I don’t understand the fear or urgency to statements like EV will be the only thing on the road.
I agree completely. However Riffraff is correct that Americans, because we always have plenty of everything, have a huge blind spot to worldwide problems, even first world problems.

I remember the Oil shortage when Opec formed and embargoed us. there was no fuel ANYWHERE. you could buy five gallons on odd or even days based on your plate. (btw wikipedia is full of ship when they say Americans were not severely disrupted. they claim we just paid 400% more)

Believe me you didn't go far in a car that got 8 mpg with only 5 gallons every other day. We would rotate who would sit in the car for 2-4 hours a day to get gas. You had to go every time you were eligible because some days they ran out before your turn. 😳

IMO
Hydrogen or electric are definitely the future. Im partial to hydrogen because we could crack water right here on the farm using wind and sun. This would allow a small amount to be available if the co-op or gas stations in town have shortages. Having multiple vehicles with different fuel is the way to go. Caveat: one must be electric. ⚡️


For now we are using Gasoline/E85 and Diesel, mostly Diesel. For torque it is indispensable atm. my Gas Trucks make ~500 ft lbs Tq. My diesel make ~1000 ft lbs Tq. 🤠

probably not an issue for city folk. I imagine an Electric can make it through days unless traveling. in that case I heard electric car manufacturers have solved the range issue by installing gas engines 😇
 
I was being hyperbolic, but I also think people - Americans in particular - have a blind spot when it comes to crises that impact them personally. Other countries have already had shortages that severe, but it's other countries, so that could never happen here, right?
I do not disagree, and it could happen here virtually overnight. In the end we try and fill the gaps of the future. And look for solutions to forestall potential failures.

When you’re trying to correct 40 years of bad policy and mistakes. ( And I’m not saying everything done was done wrong).
A person cannot expect the potential actions taken to be painless.

Americans greatest near sightedness is to assume we will continue as a united prosperous nation. Not one nation in history has enjoyed that path.
We will go through hardships and pain at some point.
What are we or can we do to prevent it arriving too soon.
 
I agree completely. However Riffraff is correct that Americans, because we always have plenty of everything, have a huge blind spot to worldwide problems, even first world problems.

I remember the Oil shortage when Opec formed and embargoed us. there was no fuel ANYWHERE. you could buy five gallons on odd or even days based on your plate. (btw wikipedia is full of ship when they say Americans were not severely disrupted. they claim we just paid 400% more)

Believe me you didn't go far in a car that got 8 mpg with only 5 gallons every other day. We would rotate who would sit in the car for 2-4 hours a day to get gas. You had to go every time you were eligible because some days they ran out before your turn. 😳

IMO
Hydrogen or electric are definitely the future. Im partial to hydrogen because we could crack water right here on the farm using wind and sun. This would allow a small amount to be available if the co-op or gas stations in town have shortages. Having multiple vehicles with different fuel is the way to go. Caveat: one must be electric. ⚡️


For now we are using Gasoline/E85 and Diesel, mostly Diesel. For torque it is indispensable atm. my Gas Trucks make ~500 ft lbs Tq. My diesel make ~1000 ft lbs Tq. 🤠

probably not an issue for city folk. I imagine an Electric can make it through days unless traveling. in that case I heard electric car manufacturers have solved the range issue by installing gas engines 😇
We don’t even have the same expectations. I do know this the more people set around and bitch about no one coming to help than just leaves them one more day behind in being as prepared as they can be.

Government even democratic republics do very few things well or successfully.
 
Venezuela's Cardón Oil Refinery, the country's second-largest, exploded and caught fire today. The facility has reportedly halted operations, per Reuters.
  • @Osinttechnical shared shaky video footage of a major fire and explosions at Venezuela's Cardón Oil Refinery, filmed from across the water showing large orange flames, thick black smoke plumes, and industrial structures on October 6, 2026.
  • The fire originated from a ruptured natural gas line feeding boilers in the diesel hydrotreater unit around 3:25 p.m., prompting full facility shutdown, quick containment within an hour, personnel evacuation, and no injuries reported.
  • As the country's second-largest refinery with 310,000 bpd capacity in the Paraguaná complex, the incident halted operations amid PDVSA's ongoing challenges with frequent outages affecting domestic fuel supply. Grok
 
Hurricane Isaias, the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season, is already causing significant shutdowns of Gulf oil production. According to the U.S. Marine Minerals Administration (MMA), offshore producers have already shut in roughly 25% of crude oil output and 16% of natural gas production in the Gulf.
  • Shell has evacuated all personnel and shut in production at five rigs
  • Chevron has begun shutdown procedures at four facilities
  • Personnel have been evacuated from eight platforms and two non‑dynamically positioned rigs, with one dynamically positioned rig moved from its location
These shutdowns are precautionary, involving safety valve closures to prevent leaks and protect workers and the environment

Scope and Risk​

The Gulf of Mexico supplies about 13% of U.S. crude oil and over half of U.S. refinery capacity worldoilmonitor.comworldoilmonitor.com. Disruptions can quickly tighten energy markets, as seen in past hurricanes like Katrina and Harvey worldoilmonitor.comworldoilmonitor.com. Analysts warn that if Isaias shifts westward, more offshore assets and infrastructure could be hit Energy ConnectsEnergy Connects.

Outlook​

While the storm may weaken after landfall, recovery is expected to take a week or more for affected platforms and refineries Energy ConnectsEnergy Connects. The MMA and operators will monitor conditions closely until operations can safely resume FOX WeatherFOX Weather.​


In short: Hurricane Isaias is actively affecting Gulf oil production, with major shutdowns underway and potential for further disruption depending on its track.
 
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The private gas station a few miles north of us has now been without 89 and 91 octane fuels for over a solid week. At first they were temporary shortages lasting only a day or two, but this starting to look permanent.
 
Oil drilling is being reduced in the Gulf of Mexico due to the hurricane, and an oil refinery exploded and caught fire leading to a complete shutdown.

Irwin Allen could have written this script.
 
The Cardon fire is out, no major damage and they still have product in storage to ship.

Venezuela at this time only ships heavy crude to the US. And the fire should not impact US refineries.
 
The Cardon fire is out, no major damage and they still have product in storage to ship.

Venezuela at this time only ships heavy crude to the US. And the fire should not impact US refineries.
Interesting, that contradicts the initial report that the refinery was completely shut down by the explosion.
 
Interesting, that contradicts the initial report that the refinery was completely shut down by the explosion.
72 hour rule
What I could tell from a few regional and industrial sources. The shut down for safety concerns and inspection. There is no eta on resuming production. Although there were unverified worker reports some refinement processes had resumed. What is the hardest impediment in Venezuelan energy resources is fixing what has been broken do to poor maintenance.
But it does impact the energy market short term.
 
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