Is it possible to do a Pearl Harbor sneak attack in the modern era

[Publius]

The main component of any surprise attack. The tactical component that makes a surprise attack successful.
Is the speed at which information can be communicated to command authority.

A successful attack on a nation’s satellite coms would functionally help carry out a surprise attack.
But does the attacking nation just limit anti-satellite attacks to military sats.
Or must they assume the defending might also have covert surveillance and emergency coms hacked into commercial satellites as well.

 

[williamcorlin]

Of course it would not be easy. I do think it is possible in the modern era though. Everything I laid out in my little scenario is available today. The only question I think is, would the subs launch under the threat of chemical and biological weapons being used on US cites after the collapse of the political and military leadership? free online games

I think the biggest uncertainty would be the decision-making chain after an attack, rather than whether an adversary could create initial disruption. Even under extreme circumstances, I’d expect surviving command structures and established authorization procedures to matter enormously.

The chemical/biological threat scenario is interesting as a question of deterrence, but I’m skeptical that a collapse in conventional leadership would automatically translate into a nuclear launch. The survivability and redundancy built into those systems are specifically intended to prevent one chaotic situation from becoming an uncontrolled response.

 

[RiffRaff]

And how would you do it? Thoughts.
Let's war game this.

9/11 was already proof of concept of this, and what I learned from it is that if I were going to launch a surprise attack against the US, I would go low-tech:

• Half a dozen EMP weapons on cargo planes flying standard routes detonated simultaneously over key points in the US
• EMP weapon on a weather balloon or a nuclear weapon that can be dropped from a weather balloon (already proven feasible by China)
• Nuclear warhead(s) in shipping containers
• Missiles or drones launched from cargo ships in the Gulf of Mexico and off each coast
• Specially trained teams entering across the Canadian and/or Mexican border with the following missions:
  • simultaneously storm every maximum security prison in the US, providing a weapon to every prisoner, creating a highly motivated army on US soil
  • attack key power substations, causing as much damage to the national grid as possible
  • simultaneously detonate IEDs in every state on buses, subways, shopping malls, churches, and other soft targets
  • steal tanker trucks carrying anything explosive and detonate them in heavily populated areas
  • derail as many trains across the country as possible, with a bonus mission of detonating tanker cars immediately afterward

With the exception of the EMP/nuclear weapons, any of these could be accomplished with minimal expense and low risk of detection, and return on investment would be equal to or greater than that of 9/11. If I could combine any of those attacks with a coordinated cyberattack on US infrastructure, businesses, government, and markets, the confusion and panic would shut the country down for weeks, if not months. Plausible deniability would at minimum delay any response by the US. For maximum impact, I would choose Thanksgiving weekend as the target date.

Given recent US attacks on Iran, I don't think recruiting volunteers for these missions would be too difficult.

 

[GBS61]

I don't think recruiting volunteers for these missions would be too difficult.

Canadians and Mexicans might also volunteer, given everything that's going on. Imagine a guy who lost his job because of everything that's happening... he'd be more likely to volunteer.

 

[william]

The main component of any surprise attack. The tactical component that makes a surprise attack successful.
Is the speed at which information can be communicated to command authority.

A successful attack on a nation’s satellite coms would functionally help carry out a surprise attack.
But does the attacking nation just limit anti-satellite attacks to military sats.
Or must they assume the defending might also have covert surveillance and emergency coms hacked into commercial satellites as well.

That's very true and I'm sure they do. I's not just the continental US that you would have to worry about in a surprise attack. The US has bases all around the world. Some of them nuclear. And than theirs Article 5 also.

That's were my thinking about the chemical, biological aspect comes in. If you took out the major decision centers and disabled the USs main strategic assets would a civilian political leader way down on the COG list still order a response if you let it be known you were going to release these pre-positioned agents on every major urban area if they did. How many suspicious labs have they found now.

 

[william]

9/11 was already proof of concept of this, and what I learned from it is that if I were going to launch a surprise attack against the US, I would go low-tech:

• Half a dozen EMP weapons on cargo planes flying standard routes detonated simultaneously over key points in the US
• EMP weapon on a weather balloon or a nuclear weapon that can be dropped from a weather balloon (already proven feasible by China)
• Nuclear warhead(s) in shipping containers
• Missiles or drones launched from cargo ships in the Gulf of Mexico and off each coast
• Specially trained teams entering across the Canadian and/or Mexican border with the following missions:
  • simultaneously storm every maximum security prison in the US, providing a weapon to every prisoner, creating a highly motivated army on US soil
  • attack key power substations, causing as much damage to the national grid as possible
  • simultaneously detonate IEDs in every state on buses, subways, shopping malls, churches, and other soft targets
  • steal tanker trucks carrying anything explosive and detonate them in heavily populated areas
  • derail as many trains across the country as possible, with a bonus mission of detonating tanker cars immediately afterward

With the exception of the EMP/nuclear weapons, any of these could be accomplished with minimal expense and low risk of detection, and return on investment would be equal to or greater than that of 9/11. If I could combine any of those attacks with a coordinated cyberattack on US infrastructure, businesses, government, and markets, the confusion and panic would shut the country down for weeks, if not months. Plausible deniability would at minimum delay any response by the US. For maximum impact, I would choose Thanksgiving weekend as the target date.

Given recent US attacks on Iran, I don't think recruiting volunteers for these missions would be too difficult.

The prison thing is something I hadn't thought of. Good one.

 

[RiffRaff]

The prison thing is something I hadn't thought of. Good one.

A lot of hatred for the US government sitting in those prisons.

 

[Dr Arthur]

A lot of hatred for the US government sitting in those prisons.

And a lot outside of them also

 

[william]

Related to my little scenario.

Anthropic says it blocked misuse of its AI that could have supported biological weapons​

Anthropic said Thursday it has blocked efforts by bad actors to use its artificial intelligence models for malicious activity such as cyberattacks, surveillance, and research that could have led to biological weapons.

As AI models grow more powerful, elaborate cyberattacks no longer require sophisticated skills and even lone individuals can create threats that would not have been possible even a year ago, Anthropic said. The company said it has added stronger safeguards in its latest models to restrict biological research that could also be used to make weapons.

“The cases we share here aren’t typical misuse, but rather examples of the most notable and novel threat activity we’ve identified to date,” Anthropic said in its third report since March 2025 describing AI misuse. The report includes snippets of the malicious code and AI prompts Anthropic said it found, and urges governments and AI competitors to identify and prevent similar abuse.

“We’re publishing this work because we believe we have a responsibility to disclose malicious misuse of our services. As models become increasingly capable, their risks will increase, unless AI developers and society’s defenders act to make them safer,” the company said.

The lengthy report by the AI startup, which is planning an initial public offering this fall, was published the day after one of its researchers announced he’s resigning over concerns that Anthropic and its competitors are not acting responsibly in AI development. He echoed concerns raised inside and outside of the industry about the technology’s potential to elude human control.

Claude was asked to support making a virus more harmful​

Between December 2025 and August 2026, researchers at Anthropic found misuse by actors ranging from spyware vendors and “politically motivated individuals” to state-sponsored groups spreading propaganda.

Among the findings in the company’s report are unnamed actors attempting to use its models for research that could have led to biological weapons. In one instance, Anthropic said its systems blocked a request for Claude’s assistance in authoring a grant application for scientific funding.

“The work discussed in the application involved gain-of-function research (that is, research that genetically alters an organism to create a new or enhanced biological property) on the chikungunya virus. This gain of function research was aimed at the virus’ transmissibility and immune evasion properties,” the report said.

Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne virus that causes debilitating symptoms such as severe pain and fever. The request involved a grant proposal for research seeking to enhance mutations to make the virus progressively more harmful. While such research could “certainly” be used to develop better vaccines and treatments, Anthropic said, “it could also be used to make the pathogen more dangerous.”

Anthropic says it can’t claim its models do no harm​

None of the cases Anthropic included in its report were found to be using its newer, more powerful Claude Fable or Mythos-class models, with the exception of one illicit distillation case that Anthropic described as “an industrial-scale, covert campaign to extract a model’s capabilities and replicate them in another model without authorization.”

Report follows a researcher’s dire warning​

Anthropic also found groups that created hundreds of social media accounts that look like they belong to ordinary people and then posted material amplifying the same political view over the course of a week. The company outlined nine such cases it found, originating in Russia, Iran, Turkey and across the Persian Gulf, South Asia, Africa and Europe.

Anthropic said it has blocked each of the malicious activities it identified, used the experience to strengthen safeguards and shared information with government authorities and industry partners.

https://apnews.com/article/anthropic-ai-threat-bioweapon-russia-00266dca90e4f8853f669648998d3bda

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/10/us/politics/anthropic-ai-biological-weapons.html

Anthropic Says It Intercepted Potential Biological Weapons Effort Involving Claude

Anthropic believes the blocked research into biological weapons was suspicious because it was intended to be carried out at a military research institute.

www.forbes.com

 

[Librarylady]

Related to my little scenario.

I think a widespread -- possibly nationwide -- 10/7 type.attack would be much more likely and a lot easier to pull off. It could even be coupled with attacks on power plants (physically or via Internet).