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May/2025 | India-Pakistan | Escalating Crisis DEFCON 3 | Discussions

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OReid said:
Agreements can be and likely were reached with political leaders, even military leaders, in Pakistan.
But with the tribal lands of Pakistan, ouch!
I winced when I saw the Announcement by the US about a ceasefire. To soon and to good to be true.

Pakistan military factions could be still encouraging attacks even now.
Personally I wouldn’t even write off Chinese MSS encouraging or facilitating sectarian attacks on India.

Will this results in a default return to ballistic air bombardment like what was dialing up the last few days? Maybe / likely
And in my opinion at this point will escalate further.
I’m an optimist/till I’m not.

a line from a movie that seems to apply here.
“And they say no”
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FURTHER ESCALATION UNDERWAY
An attack is being reported in Nagrota, India. The claim appears to be that individuals, dressed in Indian Army apparel, attacked a military installation and caused several casualties among the Indian Armed Forces at the installation. Reports of mutilation are spreading, but once again, it remains unconfirmed as of right now and is likely false.
DIDN'T INDIA SAY IT'D BE A DECLARATION OF WAR? Yes. The Indian Foreign Ministry said that any future terrorist attack, with ties to Pakistan, in India would be considered an official declaration of war on the part of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan
 
I believe it may be in the best interest of India to not call it an all out war. As to not provoke a response from the Chinese. I’ve been holding my breath waiting for some sort of Chinese statement or response about this conflict. If the report darknoon posted a few minutes ago is confirmed it would seem they have finally postered. There is a chance the Chinese get involved If this goes much further, and if they do that opens an entirely new can of worms.
 
Added in the PAF airbases that were targeted (and hit?) and international boundary lines that can more easily be seen. MODIS fire data from the last 0-12 hours. I'm not going to use the VIIRS data as that will simply pick out every little bonfire.

With it being India, I'm still not sure what is industrial fires and battle damage here.

Indo-Pak 5-10-25.jpg
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
We'll see what India's response is later.
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If rumors are correct, a drone strike in Peshawar. Not as bad as lobbing missiles at airbases and assets like yesterday,but could spiral into that again quite quickly. The currently unconfirmed terrorist attack on a base close to the border in Jammu is more concerning for me, because a terrorist attack was what made India take steps in the first place.
 
Cilvilt_beredskap said:
If rumors are correct, a drone strike in Peshawar. Not as bad as lobbing missiles at airbases and assets like yesterday,but could spiral into that again quite quickly. The currently unconfirmed terrorist attack on a base close to the border in Jammu is more concerning for me, because a terrorist attack was what made India take steps in the first place.
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It looks like the terrorist attack announcement has been withdrawn. @DarkNoon posted it here:
NuclearID

Post in thread 'May 10th-12th/2025 | India-Pakistan | Escalating Crisis DEFCON 3 | Reports'

7gtz said:
OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION OF TERRORIST ATTACK
https://twitter.com/x/status/1921248750678258055
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layereddip said:
I believe it may be in the best interest of India to not call it an all out war. As to not provoke a response from the Chinese. I’ve been holding my breath waiting for some sort of Chinese statement or response about this conflict. If the report darknoon posted a few minutes ago is confirmed it would seem they have finally postered. There is a chance the Chinese get involved If this goes much further, and if they do that opens an entirely new can of worms.
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I'm not sure how much China wants a potential nuclear conflict on their doorstep, they've always not been very friendly to India, so that's not a surprise. A very limited one they could handle and potentially gain influence out of if they do humanitarian work, but a full on could be quite bad for them. Or it *will* be bad for them. It'll be bad for the whole world.
 
Somewhat parahprased. "We call upon Pakistan to correctly deal with these violations responsibly and make sure that they won't happen again. Our military is dealing with it and are taking steps to ensure our saftey."
 
India always seems to take a day to respond. Given the attack just happened, we'll see something come tomorrow night if history repeats itself. That would be Sunday afternoon US time? So maybe some time for diplomacy. Can't imagine India letting this go, though.

Wonder why Pakistan couldn't wait to violate the cease fire, knowing India would respond. Unless the military is operating on its own now and outside government control. That would be frightening.
 
Cilvilt_beredskap said:
More disappointment expressed than anger here, imo. Not that escalatory language.
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That's actually worse. Raw emotion can be reigned in by reason. Disappointment means a decision has been made.

Like someone who is about to commit suicide giving away all their belongings.
 
A few hours ago, I put in about the ceasefire. That "quiet period" lasted for a total of 3 hrs. Well, that's over with thanks to Pak.
 
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