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Middle East Regional Wars | Discussions

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DEFCON Warning System said:
I wonder why Iran hasn't clamped down yet. You'd think there'd be a lot more suppression.
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Maybe they have in some areas (speculation only, no evidence to support), and their shutdown of the Internet and phone lines works to the government's advantage in both directions - no information in or out.
 
teekay99 said:
That makes me wonder if the Iranian government is trying to claim revolts are Israeli and American driven. And if they have, and revolts continue to escalate, does that open any doors for Israeli and US destabilization efforts?
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The Iranian street may be anti-regime, but it's *definitely* not pro-Israel (or pro-US). Right now we're at the "rioting and shooting" stage, coupled with a media blackout - which relegates official assignment of blame to a non-issue - but if the regime survives, it will definitely spin it that way.

Israel cashed most of its chips on that eleven-day war in June; unsure how it might meaningfully affect what appears to be a nationwide eruption of popular discontent. As for the US, it could try to eliminate regime kingpins in surgican strikes - though that runs the risk of backfiring.
 
Erecon said:
Is it another go at the "Arab spring" like we saw in Syria?
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Maybe? I'm not ready to say if Iran regime is done for or not. It's definitely unstable right now and one could argue it is collapsing but it is not down for the count yet. The point of no return for the regime has not been crossed yet. At least IMHO not yet.
 
Erecon said:
Is it another go at the "Arab spring" like we saw in Syria?
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I would however take a look at this to get and idea where things are going:
NuclearID said:
Reports from BBC Persian TV state that the internet blackout in #Iran has crippled the banking system. People can not withdraw cash, or pay bills. Companies have come to a standstill. Even internal e-mail within companies has become impossible.
Shutting off the internet to quell protests may be a short-term solution.

But in the medium to long term, it is likely to magnify the country’s economic ills, and with it, the anger of the public.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2010074219569389748
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Socom7 said:
The Iranian street may be anti-regime, but it's *definitely* not pro-Israel (or pro-US). Right now we're at the "rioting and shooting" stage, coupled with a media blackout - which relegates official assignment of blame to a non-issue - but if the regime survives, it will definitely spin it that way.

Israel cashed most of its chips on that eleven-day war in June; unsure how it might meaningfully affect what appears to be a nationwide eruption of popular discontent. As for the US, it could try to eliminate regime kingpins in surgican strikes - though that runs the risk of backfiring.
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Especially if the military targets are in cities with crowds out on the street. Not a good combo at all.
 
NuclearID said:
⚡⚡⚡
This is false information there have been no B-2 deployments, nor has there been a surge in KC-135 or any other tanker movements to the Middle East.

A rotational deployment of F-15Es to Jordan occurred 8th & 11th Jan comprising 12 jets and F-35As moved to Hawaii that's it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2010407486105305101
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How are you certain?

Once commercial airliners start completely avoiding the airspace, ordinance is typically expected.

I’m thinking that Iran will be hit within a week. 80% confident.
 
Spyglass said:
How are you certain?

Once commercial airliners start completely avoiding the airspace, ordinance is typically expected.

I’m thinking that Iran will be hit within a week. 80% confident.
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When I have a second I plan on confirming this with public information. But the account I shared has never failed me in reliability. So even though I have not personally fact check this... consider it highly reliable. But not bullet proof like me. ;)
 
This ends my coverage for today. I don't think US strikes are happening tonight, but still implore others to keep an eye on things, call if something big happens, you know who you are. You know the drill. Nite y'all!
 
My question is, what will strikes actually achieve? These protestors need more than strikes. They need to be able to defend themselves so they can succeed in the overthrow of these clerics.
 
Araxen said:
My question is, what will strikes actually achieve? These protestors need more than strikes. They need to be able to defend themselves so they can succeed in the overthrow of these clerics.
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I’d assume strikes are mainly about creating confusion and setbacks that slow regime enforcement long enough to blunt a crackdown and give protesters breathing room.

The only way it matters is if the chaos caused by strikes is paired with sustained internal organizing PLUS outside support that actually reaches people on the ground, like comms, money, medical aid, and other practical help. At least to the certain people that matter if you know what I mean, who can then disperse the aid inside Iran.

I can imagine that Israel & the United States would be able to flood in Aid (at least to the right people inside Iran who can then coordinate the aid better) during the confusion strikes would cause.
 
And hey who knows. Maybe kill two birds with one stone. Cause confusion with strikes/flood in Aid to the right people (&) mop up whatever we missed with their nuclear program. 🤷
 
Remember: The U.N. recently held emergency Security Council meetings to condemn the arrest of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, and to condemn Israel's recognition of Somaliland. Yet the U.N. is refusing to hold any emergency meeting for 12,000 protesters slaughtered in Iran.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2011051363732726222
 
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