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Middle Eastern Regional War | April 4th-8th | Analysis

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Winnitude said:
I'm confused with the reporting here - have they or have they not reached a ceasefire - he says it is contingent on them reopening the strait to get the ceasefire, but they have about an hour to do so. Has there been any reporting that Iran is reopening the strait?
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Me TOO!!!! just saw Al Jazerra, they show nothing🤔🤔🤔
 
Eventually the US and Iran will hammer out a peace deal. War can't last forever, and the US can't commit the ground troops to win militarily.
Really that's the only way I see this going long term.
 
Iranian state media is reporting on Donald Trump's social media post.

The headline says "Trump announces two-week ceasefire accepting Iran's conditions to end war" and the outlet also refers to "Trump's humiliating retreat from anti-Iran rhetoric".
www.bbc.com

Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz - follow live

Pakistan had proposed the ceasefire after the US president threatened that "a whole civilisation will die tonight" if Iran did not agree to a deal.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com


"Accepting Iran's conditions" sounds like their state media is trying to spin this as a victory. It's looking promising this ceasefire and strait-reopening might actually happen. That and it was mediated by Pakistan.

Still could all go tits up but it's possible this thing might end or at least die down very soon.
 

Iran war live: Trump suspends US attacks, Tehran agrees to 2-week ceasefire​

www.aljazeera.com

Iran war updates: Trump suspends US attacks, Tehran agrees to ceasefire

These were the updates on the US-Israeli attacks on Iran for Tuesday, April 7.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirms ceasefire deal​

In a statement published by Mehr News Agency, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has confirmed the reported two weeks ceasefire deal negotiated by Pakistan.

The statement said that the ceasefire agreement was reached with the approval of Iran’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.

The statement said deal is a “victory for Iran”, adding that negotiations for a permanent deal will be held in Islamabad.

More to follow.
 
Friendly Engineer said:
About bloody time.
Even if this ceasefire holds and the strait is reopening it'll take a fair while to get LNG and oil operations back to full strength.
Prices at the pump will stay high for a while.
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A financial analyst on Fox News (or Fox Business, I forget which) said it could take months for crude prices to return to their pre-conflict levels.
 
Take a note about this part of Iran's statement:

"Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's armed forces". (Emphasis added)

Iran essentially saying they control the Strait and passage is dependent on their good will.
 
Back to square one, that is, February 27, 2026.
The Mullahs are still in power.
Iran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz, even if it is reopened.
Enriched uranium remains under Iranian control.
Victory for Iran because they didn't lose.
The regime is likely to be harsher towards its population.
The only positive point is that Iran is militarily weakened, but for how long?
 
Charmender said:
US and Israel have stopped the activities.
Remains to see what you pointed out in your latest post.

IMHO a huge defeat trying to be sold as a win from the US administration.
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Trump needed an offramp
He's probably at the point where he would rather have his offramp than get the good optics of beating Iran into submission with pure US & Israeli might (because he realised it'd need boots on the ground and there's no way that'd work).

He can still spin this as a victory, Trump the peacemaker.
 
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