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PRC-ROC-US | 2025

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Meh.. a PR stunt. A good one though because people are stupid.

The “lines” are for wartime interdiction. They are not set in seabed. They are variable.

IRL at that position it would be busy sinking or at least be battling out of control fires and not launching planes.

At this point they’re really not much of a threat. Though in ten years they will be.
 
news.yahoo.co.jp

台湾有事で日本の関与を要求　米国防総省高官、英紙報道（共同通信） - Yahoo!ニュース

【ロンドン共同】英紙フィナンシャル・タイムズ（FT）電子版は12日、米国防総省ナンバー3のコルビー政策担当次官が日本とオーストラリアの国防当局者に対し、台湾有事で米中が軍事衝突した際の役割を明確化
news.yahoo.co.jp news.yahoo.co.jp

7/12(Sat) 21:17

Japan demands involvement in Taiwan contingency, US Defense Department official reports​

The Financial Times (FT) reported on Wednesday that Colby, the U.S. Department of Defense's No. 3 Under Secretary for Policy Affairs, told defense officials in Japan and Australia to clarify their role in a military confrontation between the United States and China in a Taiwan contingency and asked them to "engage."

According to the FT, the Trump administration aims to force allies in the Indo-Pacific region to prepare for a Taiwan contingency and strengthen deterrence against China. Successive U.S. administrations have maintained a "strategy of ambiguity" that does not clarify how to respond to emergencies.
 

PM Anthony Albanese is on a collision course with the head of Donald Trump’s AUKUS review, refusing to bow to Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby’s demands for Australia to pre-commit US-supplied submarines to a potential American war with China.

Speaking in Shanghai ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday, the Prime Minister declined to say if Australia would help the US to defend Taiwan, as his cabinet colleague Pat Conroy insisted Australia alone would decide if and when it went to war.
 
Why is America convinced China will use military force on Taiwan when they have other opportunities to choose from?
Besides China is in no hurry for Taiwan. They would rather build up brics and access more ports etc etc before considering Taiwan.
China can afford to wait .
Question truly is can America?
 
As far as Australia goes with support, we always have . Why question this now with such massive historical military support in conflicts. To be honest though in the current situation we cannot offer much as we have bugger all. For such a conflict of the size in discussion we really wouldn't make much of a dent if any before seriously diminishing what tiny defense capabilities we have. If we are lucky enough to make a scratch let alone a dent of any importance. Plus we are yrs away from acquiring subs . Can America truly afford to wait another 3-5 yrs with such an itch let alone a decade for subs while watching such as Chinas growth capabilities in global trade, economically, brics, global ports, militarily, technologically etc etc. I wouldn't be surprised if a false flag is created to justify direct conflict . 🤔 successful assassination of Trump by a Chinese assassin gives opportunity for immediate US Population support to go to war with out waiting for China to militarily attack Taiwan while at the same time removing potus without future issues 😉.
 
Yingyang said:
Why is America convinced China will use military force on Taiwan when they have other opportunities to choose from?
Besides China is in no hurry for Taiwan. They would rather build up brics and access more ports etc etc before considering Taiwan.
China can afford to wait .
Question truly is can America?
Click to expand...
www.heritage.org

In 5 Charts, Factors Affecting China’s Military Future

China launched missiles over Taiwan and into Japanese waters in a truculent response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Aug. 2 visit to the island nation.
www.heritage.org www.heritage.org

From what I have seen, China may have lost their chance in 2024 and they are already on the downward slide.
 
HoldFast said:

Why do you think China is not in a rush? Analysis says otherwise.
Click to expand...
Western perspective.
You should keep in mind Western thought process can and usually is different from others. Western enemies continuously prove this time and time again. Hence continuously having conflicts in same regions or drawn out conflict longer than expected.
Eg. 1 Russia-Ukraine
2 Afghanistan
3 middle east conflicts
4 Vietnam
5 Korea
The list is longer but overall these conflicts never ended or will end for those current the way intended and or finished in expected timeframe of Western opinions. The reason is simply the difference between both sides in conflict with their own thought processes and their own conviction for their cause.
Trump for example bombed Iran and stated now we have peace talks is next. Western arrogance is our biggest weakness. Iran has tried negotiations for 10-20 yrs and tried pleasing the west with such agreements like nuclear inspections etc. Not anymore due to Trump first term decision cancellation of Obama- Iran agreements. Not anymore due to Trump second term bombing. Not saying Obama was good. He also like other potus has for the last 30 yrs or longer supported Netanyahu in his plans for the region causing conflicts eg.Iraq-Iran or was it Syria? 😉. The Palestinians will always have support regardless of Netanyahu expectations- wishes. Two state solution is the best chance at peace with Palestinians allowed independent government without interference. Anyway how we process and others process means generally more often than not we get it wrong.
Didn't notice anything in your post about non military action to gain Taiwan? This isn't impossible either. See Western opinion concentration on war as the goto when China is capable of other options. They may choose similar alternatives like trade restrictions or regime change 🤔 🤷‍♂️ . Like I said before China can afford to wait out longer than the west would prefer considering our own slow financial and military demise.
 
Yingyang said:
Western perspective.
You should keep in mind Western thought process can and usually is different from others. Western enemies continuously prove this time and time again. Hence continuously having conflicts in same regions or drawn out conflict longer than expected.
Eg. 1 Russia-Ukraine
2 Afghanistan
3 middle east conflicts
4 Vietnam
5 Korea
The list is longer but overall these conflicts never ended or will end for those current the way intended and or finished in expected timeframe of Western opinions. The reason is simply the difference between both sides in conflict with their own thought processes and their own conviction for their cause.
Click to expand...

So you’re saying it is predominately a non-western thought process that tolerates or encourages decades long conflicts over territories or nations. Because regions you listed are traditionally all non western regions.
Yingyang said:
Trump for example bombed Iran and stated now we have peace talks is next. Western arrogance is our biggest weakness. Iran has tried negotiations for 10-20 yrs and tried pleasing the west with such agreements like nuclear inspections etc. Not anymore due to Trump first term decision cancellation of Obama- Iran agreements. Not anymore due to Trump second term bombing. Not saying Obama was good. He also like other potus has for the last 30 yrs or longer supported Netanyahu in his plans for the region causing conflicts eg.Iraq-Iran or was it Syria? 😉. The Palestinians will always have support regardless of Netanyahu
Click to expand...
Gaza was a quasi two state solution where Israel gave complete autonomy to the Palestinians, they received millions of Dollars in financial assistance from numerous sources. A two state solution where Israel allowed more work visas in Israel than Egypt would to Palestinians.

And Iran in their frequent refusals of inspections yet were some how so cooperative in the region they continued funding Hezbollah Hamas the Houthis threatening closure of international shipping lanes.
Yingyang said:
expectations- wishes. Two state solution is the best chance at peace with Palestinians allowed independent government without interference.
Click to expand...
And back to the two state solution where this independent government without interference where the biggest complaint leveled at Israel was we demand more work visas. Then Oct 7 occurred and everyone was chanting from the river to the sea.
You mean that type of two state solution?
Yingyang said:
Anyway how we process and others process means generally more often than not we get it wrong.
Didn't notice anything in your post about non military action to gain Taiwan? This isn't impossible either. See Western opinion concentration on war as the goto when China is capable of other options. They may choose similar alternatives like trade restrictions or regime change 🤔 🤷‍♂️ . Like I said before China can afford to wait out longer than the west would prefer considering our own slow financial and military demise.
Click to expand...
A lot is said about Chinas 100 year strategic plan or Chinas playing the long game like there some inscrutable savants.
How is it that such a moniker got attached to nation whose current government system hasn’t even reached its own centennial yet?
The nation of China in its current form is not some patient monolithic entity that always has played the long game. If it was they wouldn’t have been taken over by colonial rule for three hundred years by European powers. Their current CCP gov and the previous three dynasties were not as old as England.
You are right china very likely won’t go to war over Taiwan because it’s a no win situation for all involved. But to not counter their regional ambitions of maritime dominance is a sure path to allow them to eventually absorb Taiwan into the CCP. You do realize Taiwan has been disputed territory on and off for centuries. It was never a completely sovereign Chinese protectorate.
It was semi independent trading and pirate port then as Dutch colonized it their was a significant influx of Han Chinese mainly due to the fact that the Dutch had the ships to move them their feasibly.
Before that it was a port in a storm. Then the Dutch “gave” it back to the Qing dynasty of China. In 1650? And Qing dynasty lost it to the Japanese in 1895.
At the end of ww2 Taiwan was returned to the Republic of China, then that whole Chinese civil war thing happens somewhere between 9-15 million dead. And the ROC retreated to its last territory it controlled and the CCP could do nothing about it.

So that brings all back around to the whole western way of thinking thing. China could have responded like Japan did after ww2 and become a dominant economy non intervention regional participant worked with not against.
But that’s not the way of the Han is it. The Han btw are 90% of Chinas population.
Han nationalist movement in China today has three sects. The radicals, Conservative, and the Revisionist.
The conservative faction of the Han only want to see the recovery of “traditional Chinese territories stretching from Lake Baikal in Russia to the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains in the US.
thediplomat.com

The Rising Tide of ‘Imperial Han’ Nationalism in China

This extreme Han ethno-nationalist sentiment, once relegated to the fringe, is increasingly influential.
thediplomat.com
So who is being the unreasonable aggressor here now is it western nations seeking to colonize territories since they have done since China seized Tibet and now encroaching on Nepal and Indian Bhutan virtually all of the SCS and its own exclusive economic zones harassing its smaller Asian neighbors fishing rights. When was the last time you heard of national maritime fishing fleet from the west try to sail into the protected maritime park of Galápagos Islands
Chinas arguing for rights to Lake Baikal and that they have greater territorial claims to it than Russia.

So there you go my opinion of what is not all that particular wrong with the western world view. Current stability or never ending pissing matches about territorial resource rights.
 
OReid said:
So you’re saying it is predominately a non-western thought process that tolerates or encourages decades long conflicts over territories or nations. Because regions you listed are traditionally all non western regions.

Gaza was a quasi two state solution where Israel gave complete autonomy to the Palestinians, they received millions of Dollars in financial assistance from numerous sources. A two state solution where Israel allowed more work visas in Israel than Egypt would to Palestinians.

And Iran in their frequent refusals of inspections yet were some how so cooperative in the region they continued funding Hezbollah Hamas the Houthis threatening closure of international shipping lanes.

And back to the two state solution where this independent government without interference where the biggest complaint leveled at Israel was we demand more work visas. Then Oct 7 occurred and everyone was chanting from the river to the sea.
You mean that type of two state solution?

A lot is said about Chinas 100 year strategic plan or Chinas playing the long game like there some inscrutable savants.
How is it that such a moniker got attached to nation whose current government system hasn’t even reached its own centennial yet?
The nation of China in its current form is not some patient monolithic entity that always has played the long game. If it was they wouldn’t have been taken over by colonial rule for three hundred years by European powers. Their current CCP gov and the previous three dynasties were not as old as England.
You are right china very likely won’t go to war over Taiwan because it’s a no win situation for all involved. But to not counter their regional ambitions of maritime dominance is a sure path to allow them to eventually absorb Taiwan into the CCP. You do realize Taiwan has been disputed territory on and off for centuries. It was never a completely sovereign Chinese protectorate.
It was semi independent trading and pirate port then as Dutch colonized it their was a significant influx of Han Chinese mainly due to the fact that the Dutch had the ships to move them their feasibly.
Before that it was a port in a storm. Then the Dutch “gave” it back to the Qing dynasty of China. In 1650? And Qing dynasty lost it to the Japanese in 1895.
At the end of ww2 Taiwan was returned to the Republic of China, then that whole Chinese civil war thing happens somewhere between 9-15 million dead. And the ROC retreated to its last territory it controlled and the CCP could do nothing about it.

So that brings all back around to the whole western way of thinking thing. China could have responded like Japan did after ww2 and become a dominant economy non intervention regional participant worked with not against.
But that’s not the way of the Han is it. The Han btw are 90% of Chinas population.
Han nationalist movement in China today has three sects. The radicals, Conservative, and the Revisionist.
The conservative faction of the Han only want to see the recovery of “traditional Chinese territories stretching from Lake Baikal in Russia to the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains in the US.
thediplomat.com

The Rising Tide of ‘Imperial Han’ Nationalism in China

This extreme Han ethno-nationalist sentiment, once relegated to the fringe, is increasingly influential.
thediplomat.com
So who is being the unreasonable aggressor here now is it western nations seeking to colonize territories since they have done since China seized Tibet and now encroaching on Nepal and Indian Bhutan virtually all of the SCS and its own exclusive economic zones harassing its smaller Asian neighbors fishing rights. When was the last time you heard of national maritime fishing fleet from the west try to sail into the protected maritime park of Galápagos Islands
Chinas arguing for rights to Lake Baikal and that they have greater territorial claims to it than Russia.

So there you go my opinion of what is not all that particular wrong with the western world view. Current stability or never ending pissing matches about territorial resource rights.
Click to expand...
I expected as much. See how Western views differ. Appreciate your comments.Very informative 😊 thankyou once again. Look forward as usual to your future opinions 🤝👍
 
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