Putting It All Together

[DrMantisToboggan]

It seems like this week has really ratcheted up the tensions between RU/Ukraine/NATO. From the Storm Shadow deal on Monday, to Ratcliffe’s sudden visit Tuesday, the media speculating on what he was there for and no one getting a straight answer on it, Trump/Stubb saying Putin won’t invade NATO, Slutsky stating Russia “could have used nukes in Ukraine” but “chose restraint,” etc. it seems like there’s a lot of moving parts going on at once. Are we headed towards a significant crisis akin to that of Fall, 2022, or something worse? I just have no clue what to think anymore with everyone contradicting one another. (Admin, feel free to move)

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Are we headed towards a significant crisis akin to that of Fall, 2022, or something worse?

The US still seems to want to stay out of it. Europe not so much, which invites Russian clandestine attacks.

As long as the US remains out, that is a good thing as far as escalation goes. So this now depends on what Europe does.

This doesn't mean Russia isn't the aggressor. It just means the next move belongs to Europe. (Or the US if it has a change of heart and wants to start getting more involved.)

 

[RiffRaff]

There are more pieces than that on the board now, though. Canada has had it with the US, and we've managed to piss them off to the point that it's affecting our ability to access data from our ground-based missile warning stations in Canada's Arctic. I've seen estimates as high as a 40% reduction in our early warning detection capabilities. We can still detect missile launches, but we can't see where they're going until they're less than 15 minutes away from their targets. Russia tested this almost immediately by sending four Bear bombers into Alaska's ADIZ. Standard protocol is to launch both Canadian and American fighters to intercept. Nobody knew what to do since Canada's Tier 1 status had been revoked, so they were allowed to approach without interception. They turned back on their own before actually crossing into Alaskan airspace.

There is a canal that all ships entering the Great Lakes must pass through. It is on Canadian territory and operated by Canadians. Over $20 Billion of goods being shipped to the US goes through there. Not sure how much goes out, but the same principle applies. Canada can completely shut down US Great Lakes shipping traffic if they want to.

Iran has turned into a quagmire that is draining our defenses faster than we can replenish them. I know they've increased production, but it's still a serious problem, and it begs the question, "If attacking Iran and defending Middle East allies from Iranian drone and missile attacks has depleted our missile and ABM stockpiles in less than six months, what would happen if America had to defend itself from a real aggressor capable of projecting power across the globe?"

Cyber attacks on US utility infrastructure is at an all time high. US military commissaries are even reporting refrigerators connected to an online system have been mysteriously turned off at night over the past few days. 18 and counting so far.

These are some very serious strategic concerns, both militarily and economically. I'm not sure where this is going to end up, but I am absolutely certain it's going to end badly for the US.

Putin and Xi are watching all of this and they're seeing opportunities.

 

[RiffRaff]

Iranian cyberattacks also targeting UK utilities:

Iran-linked hackers behind cyber attack that shut down power plant, reports say

The government says at no point was there a risk to the UK's energy system during the attack in July.

www.bbc.com

 

[DrMantisToboggan]

There are more pieces than that on the board now, though. Canada has had it with the US, and we've managed to piss them off to the point that it's affecting our ability to access data from our ground-based missile warning stations in Canada's Arctic. I've seen estimates as high as a 40% reduction in our early warning detection capabilities. We can still detect missile launches, but we can't see where they're going until they're less than 15 minutes away from their targets. Russia tested this almost immediately by sending four Bear bombers into Alaska's ADIZ. Standard protocol is to launch both Canadian and American fighters to intercept. Nobody knew what to do since Canada's Tier 1 status had been revoked, so they were allowed to approach without interception. They turned back on their own before actually crossing into Alaskan airspace.

There is a canal that all ships entering the Great Lakes must pass through. It is on Canadian territory and operated by Canadians. Over $20 Billion of goods being shipped to the US goes through there. Not sure how much goes out, but the same principle applies. Canada can completely shut down US Great Lakes shipping traffic if they want to.

Iran has turned into a quagmire that is draining our defenses faster than we can replenish them. I know they've increased production, but it's still a serious problem, and it begs the question, "If attacking Iran and defending Middle East allies from Iranian drone and missile attacks has depleted our missile and ABM stockpiles in less than six months, what would happen if America had to defend itself from a real aggressor capable of projecting power across the globe?"

Cyber attacks on US utility infrastructure is at an all time high. US military commissaries are even reporting refrigerators connected to an online system have been mysteriously turned off at night over the past few days. 18 and counting so far.

These are some very serious strategic concerns, both militarily and economically. I'm not sure where this is going to end up, but I am absolutely certain it's going to end badly for the US.

Putin and Xi are watching all of this and they're seeing opportunities.

Just absolutely wild. Makes me think of after we pulled out of Afghanistan and we looked weak to everyone, and we all know what happened next. I definitely do not like the direction everything is going here.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Canada has had it with the US, and we've managed to piss them off to the point that it's affecting our ability to access data from our ground-based missile warning stations in Canada's Arctic.

I find it hard to believe Canada is deliberately causing information to be withheld.

What exactly is happening that is causing a 40% reduction in early warning detection?

 

[WSSF]

I find it hard to believe Canada is deliberately causing information to be withheld.

What exactly is happening that is causing a 40% reduction in early warning detection?

Mr Director is correct. NORAD is a joint operation between the two countries. It would be pretty hard for Canada to stop anything while American military personnel are standing right next to them. Tango Delta Sierra

 

[Snowfall]

Mr Director is correct. NORAD is a joint operation between the two countries. It would be pretty hard for Canada to stop anything while American military personnel are standing right next to them. Tango Delta Sierra

It would also be incredibly stupid on Canadas part, why would you cut sharing air defense data when you know if it were an actual threat, you would be relying on the U.S. to help neutralize it?

 

[GBS61]

I find it hard to believe Canada is deliberately causing information to be withheld.

What exactly is happening that is causing a 40% reduction in early warning detection?

You haven't seen anything yet, the USA treats us like we're Iran.

 

[GBS61]

It would also be incredibly stupid on Canadas part, why would you cut sharing air defense data when you know if it were an actual threat, you would be relying on the U.S. to help neutralize it?

The trade war was started by a stupid president.

If it were a real threat, the US would be targeted, not Canada.

 

[GBS61]

I find it hard to believe Canada is deliberately causing information to be withheld.

What exactly is happening that is causing a 40% reduction in early warning detection?

I can't reply to you, I'm censored by @Torch. I'm leaving this site, good life!

 

[RiffRaff]

Mr Director is correct. NORAD is a joint operation between the two countries. It would be pretty hard for Canada to stop anything while American military personnel are standing right next to them. Tango Delta Sierra

That last comment is not even worth dignifying with a response, and it's clear you don't pay much attention to my posts.

However, I do need to walk back one item; Canada's officers are still working alongside US officers as you said. The report I saw quoting the 40% has since been deleted, so it was obviously false.

That being said, the US needs Canada for strategic defense a lot more than Canada needs the US. Most strategic targets on Canadian soil involve NORAD in some way, so they are more American targets than Canadian; they just happen to be on Canadian soil. Plus, the US has shown Canada repeatedly that they are not a reliable partner. Canadians, like Americans, also have their own political divisions, although they are not nearly as severe nor are they as obvious. However, the US has managed to rally Canadians from all points along the political spectrum and they are all pissed at the United States over recent behavior. This includes their PM.

Canada is the US's second largest trading partner, even over China, and as mentioned earlier, key allies in American strategic defense. Americans and Canadians have enjoyed almost seamless border crossings both ways for decades. The US and Canada share one of the longest unprotected international borders in the world. Now their social media is flooded with "buy Canadian" videos and memes.

Canadians fought alongside Americans in World War 1. They fought alongside Americans in World War 2. They fought alongside Americans in the Korean War. They fought alongside Americans in the Vietnam War. They were responsible for helping bring home six Americans who had evaded capture during the 1979 hostage crisis at the American embassy in Tehran. They fought alongside Americans in Iraq. They responded to the Article 5 declaration after the US was attacked on 9/11 and fought alongside Americans in Afghanistan.

Why in the name of all that's unholy would we want to antagonize them by minimizing their role in most of America's wars - not theirs - and disrespecting Canadians who died in those wars? Can you provide me with a single valid reason why any sitting American administration should be engaging in this kind of behavior with an ally who has joined America in fighting wars for over a century? Please justify that for me. I'll wait.

 

[Torch]

I can't reply to you, I'm censored by @Torch. I'm leaving this site, good life!

This started privately and did not involve any adverse permanent action.

Again;

You are NOT now and were not at the time of your post censored.

Earlier a post was borderline and you were only warned. I decided it was not worth the trouble to delete your post. If you feel you were deleted, it was resolved long before your post.

Perhaps refreshing you browser could help.

I'm leaving this site, good life!

We entertain all viewpoints here. Your posts were all shown. It would be a shame to lose you and your unique perspective.

 

[Sentry]

As long as the US remains out, that is a good thing as far as escalation goes. So this now depends on what Europe does.

I beg to disagree. That only emboldens Russia to actually go further and start a war, without American deterrence. America wanting to stay out of it sends a terrible message to Russia and gives Putin more room to push forward. Makes a war more likely, not less. Not only that, NATO militaries without America are a lot closer to Russia conventionally, which makes this more dangerous again. France and the UK are nuclear powers, too.


And even if it does start, I bet Russia is going to attack American military facilities in Europe anyway.

 

[peterould]

I beg to disagree. That only emboldens Russia to actually go further and start a war, without American deterrence. America wanting to stay out of it sends a terrible message to Russia and gives Putin more room to push forward. Makes a war more likely, not less. Not only that, NATO militaries without America are a lot closer to Russia conventionally, which makes this more dangerous again. France and the UK are nuclear powers, too.


And even if it does start, I bet Russia is going to attack American military facilities in Europe anyway.

100% this

 

[GBS61]

Earlier a post was borderline and you were only warned. I decided it was not worth the trouble to delete your post. If you feel you were deleted, it was resolved long before your post.

Okay, that's the end of that. From my unique perspective, perhaps on this forum, American Democrats are practically nonexistent (just an observation). As for the ban on discussing politics, almost every topic is related to it.

Note to the moderators: try to make us believe that the decisions made by the US are made by the Democratic Party or extraterrestrials. (Sarcasm)

 

[Torch]

Okay, that's the end of that. From my unique perspective, perhaps on this forum, American Democrats are practically nonexistent (just an observation). As for the ban on discussing politics, almost every topic is related to it.

Note to the moderators: try to make us believe that the decisions made by the US are made by the Democratic Party or extraterrestrials. (Sarcasm)

“No politics” It can be a hard line to tow. What is enforced are posts thst stray from the threads title whilst inspiring arguments of a partisan or political vein. Statements that are unsupported opinions presented as fact are subject to a hard look. I have to self delete about 60% of my own post as they run afoul.

Im glad you will reconsider. As you noted, IMO atm liberal opinion are getting rare. This is cyclical and seems to self correct. I enjoy your posts.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Can you provide me with a single valid reason why any sitting American administration should be engaging in this kind of behavior with an ally who has joined America in fighting wars for over a century? Please justify that for me. I'll wait.

Unfair Canadian trade policies was my understanding as to why all this started.

Of course, the statements made by the US President were unhelpful even if he addressed a legitimate grief.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I beg to disagree. That only emboldens Russia to actually go further and start a war, without American deterrence. America wanting to stay out of it sends a terrible message to Russia and gives Putin more room to push forward. Makes a war more likely, not less. Not only that, NATO militaries without America are a lot closer to Russia conventionally, which makes this more dangerous again. France and the UK are nuclear powers, too.

That presumes Russia has designs on territory beyond what it is already seeking. Do you think Russia actually wants Finland or Germany or France?

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

try to make us believe that the decisions made by the US are made by the Democratic Party or extraterrestrials.

Give it another three years when the Democrats are in control of the government and see if you still feel that way.