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Russia Cancels UN Grain Deal

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I think this is actually a good thing to do from the west. This effectively forces Putin to either let the grain deal suspension purely be symbolically and let the rest of the world know that he can't do anything to prevent it, or attack trading vessels of various flag on international water, something that probably will gain some kind of protest from India or China, no matter how the Russian government might claim that its actually Ukraine attacking them.
 
Feels to me like ditching the grain deal was Putin's knee-jerk reaction to the Sevastopol event (which was rather obviously not a false flag by Russia), and then they left it to the MoD to figure out how to make good on this announcement. Might explain the chaotic communication coming from the Kremlin over the past 24 hours - clearly, none of this was preplanned, even though Putin might have already been itching for an excuse to scupper the deal.

Russia's options here are pretty much all bad (this is kind of becoming a pattern, eh? ;)). I wouldn't expect them to outright fire on the cargo ships (though this being Russia, it cannot be excluded). They could try a naval blockade or interdiction, but that would just result in more Moskvas. Probably the safest move from their PoV would be to target port facilities in Odessa with missile strikes and/or mine the corridor.

The present circumstances are, unfortunately, fraught with escalation risks.
 
Erdogan broke through Putin’s naval blockade in the Black Sea and nothing happened.

Time to donate large quantities of western fighter jets, tanks, IFVs and ATACMS to Ukraine too.

Russia won’t do anything about that either.

It’s time to call all of Putin’s bluffs.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1587178666290827264
 
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Again whilst I appreciate the sentiment and wholeheartedly agree with it, I’m with DWS: who is going to enforce it?
 
Torcher said:
Again whilst I appreciate the sentiment and wholeheartedly agree with it, I’m with DWS: who is going to enforce it?
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Well it seems it was simply a matter of doing it without military escort.
Call it a maritime non violent protest.
 
Doing it under the hand of UN without any military ecort is genius. There's no way Russia would be able to try to come up with some kind of excuse for an attacked ship if there were no ships escorting it anyway. It all just makes it harder for Russia to blame it on Ukraine, the only thing Russia can do at this point is to try to slow down the ships with inspections in port or some kind of sabotage.
 
WeirdnessUnfolds said:
Doing it under the hand of UN without any military ecort is genius. There's no way Russia would be able to try to come up with some kind of excuse for an attacked ship if there were no ships escorting it anyway. It all just makes it harder for Russia to blame it on Ukraine, the only thing Russia can do at this point is to try to slow down the ships with inspections in port or some kind of sabotage.
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It is, It’s kind of like “go ahead I dare you,”
 
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