Taiwan-China | 2022

DarkNoon

Dedicated Moderator
Staff member
China isn't Russia. They are fully aware that the US/EU response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be much more reactive than it was for Ukraine, so if they're going to do it, they need to do it quickly before anyone can intervene.
Yes but it is the same exact mentality where Russia epically failed. Dictatorships, autocracies, authoritarian regimes usually get extremely bad analysis and information when it comes to military operations. Simply because they are always surrounded by "yes" men.

You are right China isn't Russia. But to think a country like Taiwan that has been preparing for war for almost a 100 years will be taken over in 2 days is downright silly and ridiculous. Obviously China is being fed very terrible information from military strategic planners or AKA "yes men" just like Russia with Ukraine.

Even without a single shred of help from the west of the United States there is absolutely no way China could take over a country that has been preparing for an invasion from said country for almost a hundred years!
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Yes but it is the same exact mentality where Russia epically failed. Dictatorships, autocracies, authoritarian regimes usually get extremely bad analysis and information when it comes to military operations. Simply because they are always surrounded by "yes" men.

You are right China isn't Russia. But to think a country like Taiwan that has been preparing for war for almost a 100 years will be taken over in 2 days is downright silly and ridiculous. Obviously China is being fed very terrible information from military strategic planners or AKA "yes men" just like Russia with Ukraine.

Even without a single shred of help from the west of the United States there is absolutely no way China could take over a country that has been preparing for an invasion from said country for almost a hundred years!
China has something Taiwan does not, and that is a practically unlimited supply of cannon fodder. They could throw a million soldiers at Taiwain, and even if they lose 3 Chinese for every 1 Taiwanese, it wouldn't make a dent in China's manpower, but it would be a big blow to Taiwan.

NEVER underestimate your opponent.
 

DarkNoon

Dedicated Moderator
Staff member
China has something Taiwan does not, and that is a practically unlimited supply of cannon fodder.
You are right. But same can be said for Russia compared to Ukraine. Ukraine is no doubt superiorly outnumbered soldiers and weaponry. This is where Russia F'd up and this is where China's going to F up. Just because you statistically outnumber your enemy doesn't really mean jack.
They could throw a million soldiers at Taiwain, and even if they lose 3 Chinese for every 1 Taiwanese.
Yes but again Taiwan has been preparing for this exact situation for (almost) 100 years. They will most certainly last more than 2 days.
it wouldn't make a dent in China's manpower, but it would be a big blow to Taiwan.
Of course. But the fight won't be for the win. But ones integral identity. Just like we are seeing in Ukraine with Russia it quickly became a war of identity, perseverance, and attrition over the invaders rather than just winning the war.
 

intel-bank

Active member
Seems kind of click-baity (smh reuters if so), or the Foreign Minister was saying that China is using the drills to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan - which is not necessarily imminent type thing.
Either that or its not clickbait and the FM really meant China was using the drills as a cover for imminent invasion.

Edit; they updated headline and story to make it seem less like they were saying it was imminent.
 
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Socom7

Active member
I can't help but feel this whole thing was orchestrated by Beijing. They've been staging provocations for months, if not years - recall the innumerable ADIZ incursions and heated rhetoric - and it's rather easy to believe that such posturing was specifically designed to eventually bait some sort of reaction out of the US, which would then be used as an excuse to move on to Stage 2.

Thus, I respectfully disagree with those who claim we wouldn't be in this situation if only Pelosi hadn't dropped by.
 

Peace

Active member
A well-known retired general of the Taiwanese army, a member of the National Party of the Kuomintang Gao Anguo 高安国 called on the Taiwanese army to revolt and reunite with the PRC.

 

Six

Active member

What-If DC War Game Maps Huge Toll of a Future US-China War Over Taiwan:​

-Bloomberg <--Link
This is an interesting read though.
An alarming outcome released from a very reputable bunch. This makes the case that Taiwan will not be without heavy costs for all sides.
May not belong in this thread.... Idk
 
C

Clangeddin

Guest
Of course Taiwan will last longer. No doubt China is watching Russia and taking notes.
I don't think so, Taiwan is little more than 1/20th of the size of Ukraine and it won't be as easy to supply with weapons as it was with Ukraine.
Ukraine has land border with nations covered by NATO's umbrella, which deters Russia from doing anything too drastic with the risk of escalating the conflict, Taiwan does not have this indirect protection.
Another problem is that China would be far more resilient to economic sanctions than Russia and they would represent a much keener double edged sword for anybody trying to apply them.
Another factor is that China has the option to siege and blockade Taiwan without firing a shot (well, at live targets anyway), an option that Russia does not have with Ukraine.

Taiwan has the advantage of being an island, making land invasion a tougher affair in the initial days of war, but after that, if there's a breakthrough, the advantage becomes irrilevant as the war drags on.
The only unknowns in this whole affair are the actual conventional military might of modern china (which we haven't seen in action yet) and the eventual reaction of the United States, as it's the only thing that can deter China from intervention right now.
 
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