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Taiwan Crisis | US-Japan-China-Australia | Nov. 11th—Dec. 31st/2025

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Taiwan CGA says 4 China Coast Guard ships crossed Kinmen’s restricted waters line and entered prohibited waters on Dec 18, detected around noon, entry reported 14:52 & exit reported 16:17.

CGA says it used wake making and “bow pressure” to block further ingress, plus bilingual radio warnings, then condemned PRC “grey zone” escalation.

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Taiwan is stepping up training for decentralized command and control so frontline units can operate independently if senior leadership or comms are hit in a PLA opening strike. This is a practical resilience move aimed at blunting “decapitation” and disruption scenarios, not a symbolic tweak.

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PRC Defense Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin says Beijing lodged “stern representations” over the planned US $11.1B Taiwan arms sales package, and warns the PLA will intensify training and take “forceful measures” to defend sovereignty, urging Washington to stop the sales and “not support Taiwan independence.”

NOTE:
This is the PLA line being put on record, which typically sets political cover for near term pressure activity around Taiwan and possible countermeasures aimed at US entities tied to the package. Official PRC MoD Q&A statement. Coercive, propaganda coded language. No specific action or timeline announced.

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Taiwan President Lai met Japan LDP executive Koichi Hagiuda in Taipei, framing deeper Taiwan & Japan cooperation around FOIP, economic security, high tech, and “societal resilience.”

Beijing responded the same day via PRC MFA, saying it “firmly opposes” the visit and has lodged “solemn representations” with Japan, reiterating one China and “internal affairs” language.

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China replaces commanders overseeing Beijing, Taiwan operations

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping installed new military leadership for its central and eastern regions amid an unprecedented purge of the top defense echelons.

General Yang Zhibin has become commander of the Eastern Theater Command, responsible for Taiwan operations, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. The report also named General Han Shengyan as the new commander of the Central Theater Command, which is in charge of defense forces in the capital Beijing, Tianjin and five other provinces.

The moves were revealed at a general promotion ceremony on Monday — Xi’s first so far this year — and come after the ouster of several top generals earlier this year. The former commander of the Taiwan command, Lin Xiangyang, was removed in October for violating party discipline and laws. Meanwhile, Wang Qiang, ex-Central Theater Commander, missed a military parade in Beijing in September without reason.

The report didn’t indicate Wang’s next job.

At that parade in September, China showed off the country’s latest combat drones and nuclear weapons, demonstrating its broader efforts to modernize the army and challenge US supremacy despite an ongoing corruption campaign in the military.

China has launched military purges in response to what US intelligence believes is widespread corruption undermining Xi’s ambitions. A major concern appears to be graft that has eroded the quality of the weapons and capabilities of units such as the Rocket Force, which oversees the country’s missiles and nuclear arsenal, and would be instrumental should China invade Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that Beijing sees as part of its territory.
 
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Weihai Public Security official 'WeChat' posted a bounty notice seeking two Taiwanese suspects, alleging a smuggling network “controlled” the Togo flagged Hongtai 58 and other vessels offers RMB 50,000 to 250,000 for actionable tips or assistance in capture, posted Dec 24.

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JAPAN MOD:
FY2026 defense budget proposal approved at a record ¥8.8 trillion. With SACO + U.S. forces realignment costs included, it exceeds ¥9 trillion for the first time.

FOUR STATED PRIORITIES:
1️⃣. About ¥600bn for SDF personnel treatment and conditions. Food budget up about 14%. Barracks rebuilds across 29 areas. New allowances for harsh maintenance duties.

2️⃣. About ¥100bn to accelerate SHIELD, a layered littoral defense concept using unmanned assets.

3️⃣. About ¥1tn to accelerate stand off missile expansion and domestic missile mass production, plus SW defense reinforcement. Including Okinawa force posture changes referenced by the minister.

4️⃣. Space domain defense, including moving to rename the ASDF to “Air and Space Self Defense Force.” MoD also says FY2026 “defense related expenditure as % of GDP” cannot be provided yet because it includes non MoD items compiled near fiscal year end.

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Japan MoD publishes its latest “new important equipment” selections, cited as a transparency measure for systems with no prior acquisition track. Listed selections include:

♦️Hypersonic guided missile mass production.
♦️Type-03 medium range SAM capability upgrade.
♦️Mass production of multi-purpose guided missile system.
♦️Mass production of 30mm ammunition.
♦️Mass production of mobile communications infrastructure components.

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Taiwan President Lai meets Japan lawmaker and former FM Kono Taro (Dec 26). Lai says Taiwan defense spending will exceed 3% of GDP next year and aims for 5% by 2030. This will push Taiwan & Japan EPA progress and CPTPP support, plus digital trade and AI and semiconductor cooperation.

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Taiwan MoD says PRC executed a carrier rocket + satellite launch from Xichang at 00:07 on Dec 27, with the flight path crossing over central Taiwan toward the western Pacific. Taiwan says the trajectory was exo-atmospheric and posed no hazard, but they tracked it via joint ISR and maintained alert posture.

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Navigation Warning “粤航警499/25” (Jiangmen MSA): South China Sea military activity, entry prohibited Dec 28 to 29, daily 0800 to 1600, within the box formed by 21-28.37N 112-27.35E; 21-15.57N 112-27.25E; 21-15.6N 112-35.73E; 21-28.33N 112-35.78E.

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