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UA-NATO/RU | Jan.-1st-2026/May 4th | Analysis

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Erecon

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Jun 27, 2019
In theory both sides can pour green men into the battle, one side would have superior air capability though and bomb the other green men to smithereens
 
Erecon said:
In theory both sides can pour green men into the battle, one side would have superior air capability though and bomb the other green men to smithereens
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That’s true but there are constraints placed on how far or obvious one side or the other might be willing to go.
Russia would bomb and violently suppress any LGM activity inside their boarders. While dismissing any criticism of their excesses as lies or the cost of war. Popularly referred to in the US today as FAFO.

Any Western response will be constrained by public political criticism, while it’s happening and afterwards.
We saw this same exact dynamic in eastern Ukraine between 14 and the start of the war in 22. We could have ignored any excesses Ukraine committed but we didn’t. The west was divided and of two minds.

On the NATO side of the boarder any air suppression campaign in the Baltics would be recorded and dispersed worldwide. Picked apart, criticized and protested against. Irregardless of its justifiable use. Misinformation will be cut and spread like a virus.

I don’t believe NATO has a definitive ROE for Little Green Men insurgents in member nations. Just like we don’t have a response for member states who openly work against the coalition’s decision.

It’s not that nato forces couldn’t respond overwhelmingly. They could but they would always be evaluating it based upon immediate political reactions.

NATO has always had one serious achilles heal. One government - one powerful central leader. Versus a half dozen influential governments and no one powerful centralized leader.
That’s a bad thing and a good thing.

If there is any serious challenge to a less influential US leadership roll in NATO. It is the void this creates in the short run.
Either no one is in clear control or no one nation is willing to lead and take the heat.

We kind of saw this as the war in Ukraine progressed. There has been this constant back and forth. Are we going to send tanks, or jets? Are we going to send mobile artillery or HIMARS. The US was certainly not leading publicly or willing or eager to take the heat for any escalation in weaponry.
It’s always going to be this way with a coalition alliance. Especially in dynamic fluid situations.

And the insertion of little green men into a civilian population will always be a dynamic fluid situation.

Maybe what NATO members need to be deciding right now more than anything is how are they going to respond to insurgency conflicts. Rather than fumbling the ball again in indecision.
If it’s happening in Latvia and the Latvian gov can and does come down hard to suppress it. Is NATO going to back its member or waffle and equivocate its support for Latvia. Or will NATO forces suppress the insurgents? Again an ever present weakness for a coalition alliance.
Russia will definitely exploit this weakness wherever they can. One can bet on that.

I don’t like it. I’d like very much like to blithely trust what my political leaders tell me about the “Coalition of evil” vs the “Coalition of the willing”.

It’s so much easier being a patriotic cheerleader rather than a constantly skeptical citizen.
 
Publius said:
We kind of saw this as the war in Ukraine progressed. There has been this constant back and forth. Are we going to send tanks, or jets? Are we going to send mobile artillery or HIMARS. The US was certainly not leading publicly or willing or eager to take the heat for any escalation in weaponry.
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We must have been watching different wars, because I clearly remember the US under Biden publicly escalating in weaponry multiple times - most notably with HIMARS and later ATACMS (but also with things like Javelins, GLSDB and ER munitions for the triple axes).
 
Socom7 said:
We must have been watching different wars, because I clearly remember the US under Biden publicly escalating in weaponry multiple times - most notably with HIMARS and later ATACMS (but also with things like Javelins, GLSDB and ER munitions for the triple axes).
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Yeah after a month or more of public debate, denials, and negotiated arrangements.
I didn’t say the weapons systems didn’t escalate.
I said there was no leadership regarding the support for Ukraine other than words.

But I agree that you’re probably looking at different narratives because it’s convenient.
Remember Biden’s lack of leadership when he suspended Javelins to Ukraine for half of 2021 because he didn’t want to provoke Putin. Or cut Trumps budget for Ukraine in 21.
I remember public discussions and calls to send armor or HIMARS going on for a month of more. Before public opinion seemed to support it.
That’s not leadership that’s leading by opinion polls.

The Biden Slow-Yes it was called

www.reuters.com

Biden administration slowed Ukraine arms shipments until his term was nearly done

While Biden sped up deliveries after the U.S. election, his final year in office was largely marked by delays caused by congressional inaction and months-long internal debates.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
www.politico.com

White House freezes Ukraine military package that includes lethal weapons

Officials prepped $100 million worth of arms as Russia massed troops on the border, then put it on pause as the Biden-Putin summit approached.
www.politico.com www.politico.com
time.com

The Biden Administration's Slow Yes Has Doomed Ukraine

Since the war began, the Biden Administration has been too slow to support Ukraine, writes Elliot Ackerman.
time.com time.com
 
Wolfsrain said:
Ive been staying away from the global theater to focus on my music production and family but, I came across this... how much of this is true.

www.facebook.com

9.9M views · 189K reactions | Trump and Putin just SHOCKED the world, and NATO and EU globalists are furious | Redacted News | Morning Invest

Trump and Putin just SHOCKED the world, and NATO and EU globalists are furious | Redacted News
www.facebook.com www.facebook.com
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Maybe a podcast named Redacted News, is a questionable source of info
 
Wolfsrain said:
Ive been staying away from the global theater to focus on my music production and family but, I came across this... how much of this is true.

www.facebook.com

9.9M views · 189K reactions | Trump and Putin just SHOCKED the world, and NATO and EU globalists are furious | Redacted News | Morning Invest

Trump and Putin just SHOCKED the world, and NATO and EU globalists are furious | Redacted News
www.facebook.com www.facebook.com
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I watched the whole thing.

The statement - coming right out of the gate - that certain unnamed "sources" provided this guy with secret information on Russian submarine deployments trips my personal BS detector hard. He also makes elementary mistakes when using military terminology (for example referring to Russian "cruisers and battleships", implying that a "nuclear submarine" is necessarily nuclear-armed, or declaring that Russian military technology blows US military technology "out of the water") - all of which suggests to me that he has no idea what he's talking about, at least as far as military matters are concerned.

Otherwise he simply parrots your standard MAGA talking points and scaremongering tropes - for example that Europe faces "civilizational collapse", that tens of thousands of "Chinese engineers", whose whereabouts are currently unknown, have been let into the country by Biden (he's at pains to emphasize that), etc., etc. And all of it is laced with emotional language designed to play on the viewer's fears.

Oh, and he also quotes colonel MacGregor, who I'm well familiar with. Your average US citizen probably doesn't realize that we're dealing with a Kremlin sock puppet. Whenever Russian media outlets want to say something bad about the West or about America (and they often do), he's the one they hand the mike to. In my personal opinion - this MacGregor guy is an obvious Russian agent, and likely to be on Moscow's payroll (if he isn't, that would make him a fool to boot).

My personal take: this podcast is essentially pure propaganda and should not be relied on as a source of news.
 
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Socom7 said:
I watched the whole thing.

The statement - coming right out of the gate - that certain unnamed "sources" provided this guy with secret information on Russian submarine deployments trips my personal BS detector hard. He also makes elementary mistakes when using military terminology (for example referring to Russian "cruisers and battleships", implying that a "nuclear submarine" is necessarily nuclear-armed, or declaring that Russian military technology blows US military technology "out of the water") - all of which suggests to me that he has no idea what he's talking about, at least as far as military matters are concerned.

Otherwise he simply parrots your standard MAGA talking points and scaremongering tropes - for example that Europe faces "civilizational collapse", that tens of thousands of "Chinese engineers", whose whereabouts are currently unknown, have been let into the country by Biden (he's at pains to emphasize that), etc., etc. And all of it is laced with emotional language designed to play on the viewer's fears.

Oh, and he also quotes colonel MacGregor, who I'm well familiar with. Your average US citizen probably doesn't realize that we're dealing with a Kremlin sock puppet. Whenever Russian media outlets want to say something bad about the West or about America (and they often do), he's the one they hand the mike to. In my personal opinion - this MacGregor guy is an obvious Russian agent, and likely to be on Moscow's payroll (if he isn't, that would make him a fool to boot).

My personal take: this podcast is essentially pure propaganda and should not be relied on as a source of news.
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Time always tells.
 
Charmender said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2009394160281997754

Security camera footage which appears to capture tonight’s strike by a Russian “Oreshnik” Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM), equipped with a Conventional Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV), earlier against the Lviv Oblast of Western Ukraine.
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Is it Rusian Christmas season merry IRBM to you
 
No idea what they were targetting, a deep underground bunker perhaps? Lviv Oblast is right next door to Poland though so the strike, and the choice of delivery system, may have been intended to be very visible.
 
Gaijin said:
No idea what they were targetting, a deep underground bunker perhaps? Lviv Oblast is right next door to Poland though so the strike, and the choice of delivery system, may have been intended to be very visible.
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Who knows, new start expires in a few weeks so could be signaling over that as well. I’m guessing they’re going to claim this was in response to the fake drone strike attempt on Putin, and this wasn’t something out of the blue but rather has been planned for a few weeks. The Russians have looked stupid the past couple weeks so might’ve just wanted to do something to look strong. I’m sure they’ll run off their mouths at some point here though so we’ll find out.
 
Snowfall said:
I’m guessing they’re going to claim this was in response to the fake drone strike attempt on Putin.
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Well look at that:
Socom7 said:
Russian media channels are spinning it as a "response" to the alleged Ukrainian attack on Putin's residence in Valdai (which, according to Western intelligence agencies, never took place).

Source
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So. What numbers are you thinking of right now @Snowfall? (jk)
 
Ben Dhyani said:

Donald Trump says Zelensky brings 'no cards' and isn't important in Russia peace talks​

US President Donald Trump said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ‘has no cards’ and is not very important in peace talks with Russia.

Trump launched his latest attack at Zelensky on Friday, three days after US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia and did not invite Ukraine’s leader.

‘I’ve been watching for years, and I’ve been watching him negotiate with no cards,’ said Trump of Zelensky on Fox News Radio. ‘He has no cards. And you get sick of it.’
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How can you have any peace talks without both warring parties at the table? The USA is just a nagotiater and not the arbiter isn't it? My opinion is that Ukraine is very important and that President Trump is playing favorites with Russia.

I still think Russia has some dirt/leverage on President Trump.
 
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