Interesting stuff.
Putin Has a Problem: HIMARS and Howitzers Are Stopping Russian Advances
Ukrainian officials claim that HIMARS and M777 Howitzers are stabilizing the situation along the frontlines.www.19fortyfive.com
That is certainly a concern. But only if Russia actually faces the possibility of losing.
What hasn’t quite sunk in yet for Putin is that NATO will respond militarily even if the strikes are limited to Ukraine. Something like that cannot go unanswered. The initial response would not be nuclear but would likely start with a warning to remove all remaining nuclear weapons from the immediate theater or they will be forcibly destroyed or removed. NATO would likely try to shoot down such missile if they have the chance as the stakes are too high. I wouldn’t rule out a formal permanent blockade of the Black Sea either by NATO. This would be some serious shit and if Putin decides to escalate further from this it’s all over. No going back then. If NATO leadership is smart they already communicated this clearly through back channels.
If Ukraine is in the real position to launch an offensive into Crimea, that means they could do the same into Russian territory. Basically, Russia would feel vulnerable enough to justify crossing the nuke threshold. The only thing that could stop it is a last minute coup among leadership. We can dream I guess.
NATO's problem is that Russia still has nukes. NATO can only go so far before provoking a direct response.
Once the first nuke is launched into Ukraine deterrence goes out the window IMHO.
Not necessarily. It's a common misconception that once one nuke is used, they all get used.
Provoking a response works both ways.
Ah, but the problem is, Russia won't see it as them provoking the West. And the West won't see it as provoking Russia.
I absolutely agree. Its a amplifying fault loop.
That’s my point, Putin likely really believes the West will do nothing in the event he uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. What he sees as weakness with NATO’s slow response is really just the reality of having to generate consensus with 30 plus nations. I am convinced, plus Biden basically already admitted, that we would respond “in kind” to WMD use. This has to mean militarily. And they will act fast as consensus has been given and certain US forces have been put back under direct control by NATO for the first time since the Cold War.
To put this in perspective, Biden was talking about the possible use of chemical, not nuclear, weapons in Ukraine.
I would equate to Russia losing Crimea....as losing. That said, Ukraine should focus on taking everything back pre wars borders and just concede Crimea. The time to make a point over Crimea is long gone and was in Putins eyes settled long ago when the international community and Ukraine simply did nothing. Crimea symbolically is literally to Putin like a Moscow B , I can't see him giving that up without launching wmd. The only compromise that might not invoke wmd is driving them out of Ukraine and retaking everything back along the coast and east and pray Putin doesn't panic react to the loss.
I think Putin could pop off a few over Ukraine and NATO wouldn't get involved (so long as fallout doesn't go over NATO countries).
Then Russia is wrong and they need defeated. This is an aggressive sociopathic state that deserves no coddling
Wrong. This is definitly the trigger for a global nuclear exchange.
I doubt it, Ukraine is not a part of NATO, hence NATO has no obligation to get into a nuclear shoot-out with Russia if Putin nukes Ukraine.
