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UA-RU | DISCUSSIONS
- Thread starter Socom7
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I can oppose the Russian invasion and recognize the facts for what they are without the melodrama. I can condemn Russian war crimes (which sadly too many other countries are guilty of and won't ever be held accountable) and recognize genocide has a specific definition. Whether it is a "cold strategic caluculation" by the Russian dictator, I can realize that letting more Ukraine people die for this, let alone escalation of this, is also a reckless decision as well. Two wrongs don't make a right. Of course, we condemn the Russia invasion. But we cannot do the LONG-term strategic work to undo this mess by ignoring what Russian people believe (even if they are wrong).
Is a scorched Earth war of attrition really defending Ukraine and Ukraine people?
There is: (a) defending Ukraine and the irreplacable lives of Ukraine people, and (b) fighting against Russia because they are wrong. I believe there is more focus on (b) than on (a).
If you read/listened to the 14 minute speech by the Russia dictator Putin, it was clear and unequivocal who he was threatening. He was NOT threatening Ukraine. The Russia Dictator Putin was CLEARLY threatening the West, NATO, with a very clear implication regarding the United States of America, which would certainly mean Washington, D.C. While I am certain there are a lot of people who would not be sad (to state it mildly) if DC (and my family) were wiped off the map, the reality is that they are human beings too.
My take is that an unequivocal threat by the Russian dictator against the United States of America and reference to nuclear weapons would raise the DEFCON. But that's just me.
My assessment is that the so-called DPR and LPR, which the Russia dictator Putin has used to rationalize the cruel invasion of Ukraine, represents about 13,000 square miles or 20,921 kilometers. Does anyone have any different information?
"Donetsk People's Republic"=3,032 sq miles
"Luhansk People's Republic"=10,000 square miles
This is roughly about the size of Maryland (12,405 sq. mi.) and Rhode Island (1,544 sq. mi.) combined.
"Donetsk People's Republic"=3,032 sq miles
"Luhansk People's Republic"=10,000 square miles
This is roughly about the size of Maryland (12,405 sq. mi.) and Rhode Island (1,544 sq. mi.) combined.
We constantly analyse things that could affect the DEFCON level. We do not believe world events warrant a DEFCON level change at this time.
Let me walk you through our thinking:
- We have seen no actions suggesting Russia/Putin is preparing for a nuclear strike. Currently it's just hot air.
- NATO isn't responding (except for harshly worded statements)
- He isn't going to hold the referendums (a.k.a annex the captured territories) now, that'll be in the near future.
Now I know that Russia is certainly escalating the conventional war in Ukraine by mobilising all of those troops, but it's easy to lose sight of the fact that the DWS DEFCON level is there to gauge the threat of a nuclear war involving NATO.
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And here is what I heard yesterday. Putin's words, not mine (obviously), but some will miss that. "The goal of the West is to weaken and eventually destroy our country. They did that directly back in 1991, they managed to divide the Soviet Union, and now the time has come to do the same with Russia." "These are the plans that they had been having for some time." "we are fighting against... the collective West war machine." "in their address against Russian policies, the West has crossed the line, we keep hearing threats against our country, against our people. Certain irresponsible politicians from the West have stated about their plans to supply long range weapons that would allow them to strike Crimea and other regions of Russia.. "terrorist attacks using the Western weapons.. using contemporary satellites strategic aviation UNMASS vehicles and NATO is performing the reconnaissance across the entire Eastern border." "They don't even hide it when they say Russia should be destroyed... and they should deprive our country of any sort of sovereignty and they should rob our country of everything."
"They have started nuclear blackmail. I am not just talking about attacks on the (unclear) nuclear power plant that is related by the Western leaders. I am talking about the statements by high-level representatives of the NATO countries about the accessibility (?) of using weapons of mass destruction against Russia - nuclear weapons.To those who allow themselves such statements regarding Russia, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and for separate components and more modern than those of NATO countries and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to defend and protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means that we have. I am not bluffing. The citizens of Russia can be confident that we will defend the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country." "And to those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind patterns towards them as well. The destiny of our people is to stop those who want to dominate the world, those who want to enslave our homeland, our fatherland, and we will do that as well."
No doubt hot air, and perhaps everyone laughs when he says "I am not bluffing." That's a big gamble for our USA/NATO strategic defense.
But this is a leader that is building a rational to clearly justify some type of strike against the West, NOT Ukraine. These are words by someone who is willing, even anxious to go to war with the West. I think those who missed that part of the address by the Russia Dictator Putin are not seeing that point.
Ok. The question of raising the Defcon level has come up several times. So I just have t ask.
What in the grand scheme of anything going on Would a private web site lowering it's Defcon (private opinion ) Level change? Would it change Putin's attitude towards Ukraine? Would it change your preparedness level? You/we all read this site on a regular basis,
and I have to believe we are all perceptive enough to process the info , and adjust our own Defcon Levels accordingly.
We're not willing to say things like:
"If Putin does [X] then we go to DEFCON [X]"
However, I can refer you to the rough guidelines for the DEFCON levels:
DEFCON 5 – Green
This is the standard peacetime alert level. All is quiet. There are no known imminent nuclear threats. Updates will be given the 1st of every month (except for April 1st or if the day falls on a Saturday, in which case the update will appear a day later) with immediate updates issued as the situation warrants.DEFCON 4 – Blue
This is the non-standard peacetime alert level. All is quiet, though there have been some events which warrant observation. There are no known imminent nuclear threats. More likely than not, nothing will happen and the DEFCON level will eventually revert back to Green. Updates will be given every three weeks with immediate updates issued as the situation warrants.DEFCON 3 – Yellow
Events of concern are occurring in the world theatre. There are no known immediate nuclear threats, however the situation is considered fluid. Updates will be given every seven days with immediate updates issued as the situation warrants.This is the most uncertain of the Alert levels. You must make a decision every day (or sometimes every hour) as to whether you think the situation will resolve itself or get out of hand. To be on the realistic side, you should hope for the best but plan for the worst.
DEFCON 2 – Orange
Hostilities have or are about to break out. There is the possibility of a nuclear strike. Updates will be given every day with immediate updates issued as the situation warrants.DEFCON 1 – Red
A nuclear attack is in progress or is considered to be highly likely. It is planned for the Alert level to go to Red before an actual attack. This will introduce a possibility of error, but will also give the most warning. You must decide for yourself whether to act upon it or not. Updates will be given at 7 A.M and 7 P.M Pacific Time with immediate updates issued as the situation warrants. Post-attack, radiation levels will be given for the Stevens and Ferry County areas as well as any other areas if possible. Updates for radiation will also be given at 7 A.M. and 7 P.M. Pacific Time. Immediate updates will be issued as the situation warrants.
Def 5? Of course, everything is ok. If the nuclear missiles fly, we may go on DEF 4. 
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Alert Fatigue is very real and right now it is rampant in defense intel groups.
The level is where it is, because what if we get 2 steps closer to nuclear war and we are at 3 already? The level had been lowered at the start of the war and saw no real threat, just hot air.
Its about effective communication. You can't be ringing the nuclear bell all the time, or people get used to its sound.
This is just me, so take it for what you may. On a personal level, when the troop draw down started, I went from a five to about a 4.5 (meaning in between) Now, after his speech, personally, I"m in a solid 4, (meaning checking several times throughout the day to see what's going on, and also following the unrest over there. Yes, the civil unrest will play a factor. The mass Exodus to other countries is certainly a strong signal.
So what's next??? If I see the closing of the borders with Russia, or the referendum takes place, this on a personal level will put me at a solid 3.
So, what after that??? seriously, I think that events will occur quickly and spiral out of control. When the first one is blasted, (even a small tactical one) it's going to unleash a quick chain of events, the markets will collapse in a panic sell off, and the mayhem after that first one goes off would look something like those grocery stores in that movie The Day After. In other words, panic gridlock. This is why I'm taking final steps NOW--while there isn't confusion or panic or gridlock. The real problem is that you have idiots on both sides of the pond that are just itching to destroy each other.
So what's next??? If I see the closing of the borders with Russia, or the referendum takes place, this on a personal level will put me at a solid 3.
So, what after that??? seriously, I think that events will occur quickly and spiral out of control. When the first one is blasted, (even a small tactical one) it's going to unleash a quick chain of events, the markets will collapse in a panic sell off, and the mayhem after that first one goes off would look something like those grocery stores in that movie The Day After. In other words, panic gridlock. This is why I'm taking final steps NOW--while there isn't confusion or panic or gridlock. The real problem is that you have idiots on both sides of the pond that are just itching to destroy each other.
You've hit the nail on the head.
See, the USA govt. agrees with your assessment!
But, the $64k question is what level is the military truly at?? We as the general public have no clue.
Yes full steam ahead to nuclear war
. The only good news is my cat needs radiation therapy for her cancer so this would be a cheaper option.Which would mean they would have to change the readiness level unless it was already at a prolonged elevated state.
People laugh but I think the site owner is being blackmailed by somebody to not move the level until birds are practically in the air. That or he is tired of having to reload the website after heavy traffic. I will be honest my interest in it is really just being excited watching the colors change over in the background.Def 5? Of course, everything is ok. If the nuclear missiles fly, we may go on DEF 4.
That's what we pay $740 billion a year for.
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