UA-RU | Jan.-1st-2026/August 20th | Analysis

[Lostpuppy]

Can’t find it on the English version of TASS so here’s the Russian head/byline instead, as translated:

“

A law has been signed that allows the involvement of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to protect Russians abroad​

According to the document, state bodies, by the decision of the president, will take measures to protect Russian citizens in case of their arrest, criminal and other prosecution by the courts of other countries”

Excuse me, what?

https://tass.ru/politika/27524989

So if Germany or Poland holds Russian agents invokved with aircraft bombings and other asdoeted nasty business, Does this mean Russia has validated attacking?

 

[Snowfall]

I'd like to see a more thorough article on this, especially something that goes into what exactly the law says.

New Law Gives Kremlin Expanded Power to Use Force to Defend Russians Abroad - Jamestown

jamestown.org

I feel like this is a pretty good analysis, basically attempting to encourage countries to not cooperate with the ICC, as well as a response to tanker seizures to make countries think if they arrest the crew the Russians could take action. It also point out they gave Putin the power to use Russian troops on foreign soil in 2008, so this is 100% a symbolic bill rather than an actual practical change.

 

[DrMantisToboggan]

An interesting take from Responsible Statecraft. A few quotes stood out to me….

“Despite this, Moscow has not targeted Ukrainian headquarters in Kyiv precisely because of the likelihood that U.S. and other NATO soldiers and intelligence officers would be killed, risking drastic escalation in response by the West.”

“If the Trump administration does not re-engage in the peace process, then within the next week or so it may likely face a choice between a humiliating retreat and a much deeper and more dangerous military commitment to Ukraine, with the serious possibility of direct war with Russia.”

Thoughts, comments, concerns?

The US suggests it might dump talks as Russia escalates war

Rubio's ominous comments about the future of negotiations, coupled with Moscow urging US and European diplomats to leave Kyiv, spell darkness ahead

responsiblestatecraft.org

 

[Snowfall]

An interesting take from Responsible Statecraft. A few quotes stood out to me….

“Despite this, Moscow has not targeted Ukrainian headquarters in Kyiv precisely because of the likelihood that U.S. and other NATO soldiers and intelligence officers would be killed, risking drastic escalation in response by the West.”

“If the Trump administration does not re-engage in the peace process, then within the next week or so it may likely face a choice between a humiliating retreat and a much deeper and more dangerous military commitment to Ukraine, with the serious possibility of direct war with Russia.”

Thoughts, comments, concerns?

The US suggests it might dump talks as Russia escalates war

Rubio's ominous comments about the future of negotiations, coupled with Moscow urging US and European diplomats to leave Kyiv, spell darkness ahead

responsiblestatecraft.org

I question the thought that there are actual high level decision makers in Ukraine but a few thoughts

1. If Russia is going to strike those centers, they’d strike in the middle of the night when they’d likely be unoccupied. Any foreign decision makers will also likely be in hardened underground bunkers probably not even in Kyiv.

2. Multiple NATO nation’s embassies and consulates in Kyiv have been damaged by Russian strikes with no response.

3. Frankly, any NATO officials in Ukraine are there with the implicit thought, and acceptance for that matter, they could be killed. I’d place a higher likelihood NATO would deny they were ever there, then go to war over them.

In conclusion, I’m not losing sleep over this. If NATO was actually worried they’d likely evacuate any personnel rather than take the risk, such as days they’ve given embassy employees the day off. But again, I question how many of these “decision makers” are in Ukraine. As typical though, I expect Russia to bomb more apartment buildings, hospitals, and schools and claim they hit NATO decision making centers, killed 1,000,000 NATO decision making NAZIs, and took the city of Kyiv without ever driving into town.

 

[DrMantisToboggan]

I do not like where this is going…..

“Managed escalation”

“Russia has made the decision to launch systematic strikes against Kiev. The next step on the escalation ladder will likely involve direct strikes against targets within the EU and NATO countries.”

This is seriously starting to concern me

Russia’s reciprocal escalation sends an important signal to European elites

Russian experts weigh in on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s warning about strikes on Kiev

www.rt.com

 

[Charmender]

I do not like where this is going…..

“Managed escalation”

“Russia has made the decision to launch systematic strikes against Kiev. The next step on the escalation ladder will likely involve direct strikes against targets within the EU and NATO countries.”

This is seriously starting to concern me

Russia’s reciprocal escalation sends an important signal to European elites

Russian experts weigh in on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s warning about strikes on Kiev

www.rt.com

It’s four years that RT, TASS and company have been speaking about escalation on NATO countries.

Not to mention the TV shows on the state media openly speaking about nuking europea capitals.

If you wanna try to get a clue about where things are going, I strongly advice you in order to protect your mental health to avoid reading what’s published in Russian and Ukrainian state media.

I said try, because none of us will ever have the information needed to have a clear picture about what’s going and what’s not going to happen.

Speaking about Russia…what matters is what they do.
And not what they say.

If Russians are talking about something you can be assured that 99% is never gonna happen.

Start worrying when Russians stop talking because that’s when something is boiling for real.

It’s always been like these since the end of WW2.
And they will never change because they perfectly know that their strategy works.

There’s a misconception often that Russians are stupid.
They’re not.

They may have made a miscalculation with Ukraine.
They won’t do that twice.

Again, Russia is lacking the resources and manpower to do anything other than nuclear war.
Which is not what they’re looking for.

 

[DarkNoon]

Not worried at all ATM. We in a pre-crisis stage. The environment is perfect for one to snowball or in more simple terms a storm brewing.

Not one thing of particular concern. More a bunch of things and factors that imo make me suspect the Eastern Theater may begin to light up again, sooner, rather than later.

For now it's the wait and see stage. See what US does after Iran, most importantly. We go after Cuba... I would be a little worried if I lived in Eastern Europe. If Trump doesn't go after Cuba then I would say a crisis is unlikely. If the Iran war starts back up, a crisis environment becomes more likely for Europe.

No one also seems to be taking into account the status quo is changing, against Russia's odds. Not dramatically. But a little each day. Sooner or later... Putin will have to do something.

That's my honest and humble take. Everyone can rest easy right now. For now. Regarding Europe of course, this does not apply to other theaters.

 

[Snowfall]

I do not like where this is going…..

“Managed escalation”

“Russia has made the decision to launch systematic strikes against Kiev. The next step on the escalation ladder will likely involve direct strikes against targets within the EU and NATO countries.”

This is seriously starting to concern me

Russia’s reciprocal escalation sends an important signal to European elites

Russian experts weigh in on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s warning about strikes on Kiev

www.rt.com

It’s an opinion article from a propaganda outlet who’s called for these things for years. More covert sabotage with a shred of deniability? Probably. Direct strikes against NATO, who they’ve gone out of their way to not end up in a war with? Extremely unlikely.

Russia wants to break NATO without NATO ever firing a shot, not end up in WW3

 

[william]

Human shields. Western forces will be reluctant to strike them.

I don't think the Ukrainians will after what is being done to them! IMO

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I don't think the Ukrainians will after what is being done to them! IMO

I agree, though it is about optics. The world won't say anything when Russia is shelling civilians. But when Ukraine starts to do it...?

 

[Dr Arthur]

The UK says a Swedish fighter jet deal will provide 16 Gripen aircraft to Ukraine, with Ukraine also able to purchase 20 new Gripens through an EU support loan. London says over 30% of each Gripen is manufactured in the UK, framing the deal as strengthening NATO linked supply chains.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060084896299696193

And it gets away from the USA and F-35

 

[Yingyang]

William posting in reports a ukrainian child with shrapnel wounds and bias comment is unnecessary in my opinion.
Why not show both sides eg. Russian baby with foot blown off. Complaining about children and civilians being hurt or killed is pointless to start with. Collateral damage .
It is war.
No need for bias or propaganda chosen by staff or members here. Reports should remain neutral especially considering the US are not directly involved and victims not US citizens.
Neutrality should remain especially if not directly involved. Victims both sides regardless who beleives what, who or how. All are humans not like some prefer eg. Humans vs animals especially when it comes to civilian collateral damage on either side.

 

[RiffRaff]

William posting in reports a ukrainian child with shrapnel wounds and bias comment is unnecessary in my opinion.
Why not show both sides eg. Russian baby with foot blown off. Complaining about children and civilians being hurt or killed is pointless to start with. Collateral damage .
It is war.
No need for bias or propaganda chosen by staff or members here. Reports should remain neutral especially considering the US are not directly involved and victims not US citizens.
Neutrality should remain especially if not directly involved. Victims both sides regardless who beleives what, who or how. All are humans not like some prefer eg. Humans vs animals especially when it comes to civilian collateral damage on either side.

Agreed. While I understand the sympathy for Ukraine since they were invaded, there is more than enough death for everyone over there. I'm sure some innocent Russian civilians have also been killed.

 

[DarkNoon]

Well. I was on my way to bed when my eyes came across this news when it broke very coincidentally...... But. I'm not to worried since no one died. And pretty confident nothing is going to come from this in the next 12 hours. So. Gonna hit the hey.

Of course everyone, you know who you are, do not hesitate to call and wake me if for some unlikely reason this escalates in the next 12 hours I'm not around.

If this turns out to be true, there won't be any military response.

Still. Even if it wasn't. Certainly wouldn't hold my breath. Now if someone died. Maybe. But. No one died, this time... gives all the room for NATO to shrug it off.

 

[DrMantisToboggan]

Anyone’s thoughts on the Romanian apartment block “attack?” Is there a chance Article 5 could be invoked over this??

 

[Snowfall]

Anyone’s thoughts on the Romanian apartment block “attack?” Is there a chance Article 5 could be invoked over this??

Article 4 probably, article 5 I doubt it. They'd have to come to a consensus that there was intent from the Russians to hit the building which I doubt there was. I don’t believe the Russians would intentionally overtly strike NATO, overtly being the key word, but if they did a military target would be considerably more likely than an apartment building. TBH it’s a miracle this took this long to happen with the amount of stray drones going into Romania from strikes on Odesa.

 

[Snowfall]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060154637693436162

This is a pretty rational response to the incident.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

but if they did a military target would be considerably more likely than an apartment building

tbh, Russia seems more adept at hitting civilians than military.

 

[Snowfall]

tbh, Russia seems more adept at hitting civilians than military.

You’re not wrong, but why chance starting a war if you’re not gonna at least cause some damage?

 

[Snowfall]

Side note, anyone else notice how little mainstream media coverage of this there is? I remember the polish drone incursion was front page news for three to four days, and the Ukrainian air defense missile that landed on Poland was the same. There’s substantially more coverage of the blue origin explosion than this.