So you and I have had some similar experiences. Unlike you, however, I
do have to take medication to deal with my demons. You can chalk that up to me being "weak" if you wish. Congratulations on your emotional well-being.
You have one flawed premise in everything you said, and that is that the Budapest Memorandum - 1994, by the way - was a "mistake." It wasn't - at least, not in intent. Multiple countries -
including Russia - agreed to provide border security guarantees to Ukraine if they gave up the nuclear weapons that the Soviet Union had deployed there. Ukraine, in fact, held the majority of the USSR's nuclear arsenal back then, so many that for the very brief time between their independence and the surrender of their nuclear weapons, they were the third most powerful nuclear-armed country on the planet. Now, I don't know about you, but I wasn't too keen on a country with very little experience in maintaining or securing nuclear weapons having enough of them to wipe out several countries. Being a student and survivor of Cold War 1.0, I celebrated those nukes going back to their original owners, who at the very least had some sense of command and control. The agreement itself was not a mistake.
The mistake occurred
after Ukraine returned those weapons to Russia and nobody bothered to follow up with the Russians on whether or not they needed any assistance after such a major upheaval to their society. Why? Because we were too fucking busy patting ourselves on the backs for having "beat" the Soviet Union. And then we moved on, leaving Russia to fend for itself. Nature abhors a vacuum, and in the case of Russia, that vacuum was filled by criminals, thieves, and thugs. And nobody over here cared.
Fast forward to September 11, 2001. I'm not going to debate what happened on that day, because what happened afterward is much more significant. What was the reaction of the only hyperpower on the planet at that point in history? The invasion of two weak countries that could not withstand our "shock and awe," and - more importantly - had absolutely nothing to do with what happened on September 11th. I claimed at the time that September 11, 2001, would go down in history as the opening shot of World War III. I still think I'm right on that, but not for the same reasons I had back then.
Fast forward again to August, 2008, when the world gets its first hint of what had been festering in Moscow for 14 years when Russia invaded Georgia, a former Soviet republic. That also happened under Bush Jr.'s watch, by the way, and nothing happened. Weak leadership? Kind of pointless to debate that now, but some of us more paranoid types started keeping an eye on Russia again. And bad actors were closely watching the United States.
Fast forward yet again to 2014, when Russia "annexed" Crimea under Obama's watch, violating the very agreement they had signed to get their nuclear weapons back. Again, nothing happened. Now, some lesser paranoid people started watching Russia as well.
Fast forward once more to 2022, and all of a sudden everyone is just shocked - SHOCKED, I say - when Russia does it again, except this time it's not some small piece of land they're after; it's an entire sovereign country. And now they're threatening to use nuclear weapons if their plans are interfered with. Gee, NOBODY could have seen that coming, and now EVERYBODY is watching Russia, except it's too fucking late to do anything.
So, yeah, mistakes were made due to weak leadership. But those mistakes and that weak leadership transpired across FIVE American Presidential administrations, as well as multiple administrations in Europe. And guess what else? Americans aren't the only ones who think their elected government officials are weak. Russia, DPRK, China, Iran... there is a long list of countries with a long history of hating the United States, except now they don't fear any consequences from the US for their behavior. Why do you think we're so concerned about China making a move on Taiwain? Or Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon? Or Kim Jong Un doing something really stupid? Is it because the bad guys have gotten smarter? No, it's because the good guys have gotten dumber and weaker. And I can trace the cause of that fact all the way back to September 11, 2001, which is when this country started down the road of hyperpolitics and Americans calling other Americans traitors based solely on their voting choices.
I think you're correct that nukes will fly, and probably sooner rather than later. But if you want to know who's responsible for it when it happens, I'll tell you: It's us. Good ol' American self-righteous nationalism. THAT'S what the red pill reveals. THAT'S the dose of reality most Americans need.
And I'll discuss this till the cows come home, because if by some miracle we manage to get through this crisis without radiating a few cities, I can guarantee you that without some serious soul searching on the part of every American, the next crisis will take us over the brink. We'll have no one to blame but ourselves, and I'm not sticking my head in the sand over that extremely uncomfortable truth.
