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UA-RU-NATO | DISCUSSIONS 14th July - 1st October 2023

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Socom7 said:
I'm simply explaining what the mood is like in Moscow. Maybe they're wrong, but they're thinking that. And it's a sentiment that's shared in Kyiv - not to mention pretty much every other capital in Europe (and other places). 🤷‍♂️
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Your observation of what will happen if trump wins in 24 is correct.
At least as far as what “some” hope or fear he will do.

I believe in a interview last month in an Attempt to pin down his policy on the war. He said he would insist both sides set down and negotiate.
If Ukraine refuses aid would be chopped.
If Russia refused the military aid to Ukraine would continue to grow until Russia was bankrupt or ruined.

Trumps position on NATO wasn’t “the US needs out”. Only that European members need to meet their commitments to NATO.
Also of course they needed to stop sucking at the tit of Russias hydrocarbons.
You could say his public statements or expectations were somewhat prescient when looked at after Feb of last year.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
So why do you think Russia keeps offering to negotiate the war?
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PR/propaganda points. Russia has invested great resources into making itself look like the peacemaker ("we want peace, it's the evil NATO warmongers who want to continue the war; they really should stop"). The intended audience includes western societies who will then vote in elections. It's working, too; as you can see - even in these forums people uncritically parrot the official Kremlin line and claim "look, Russia wants to end the war!" Problem is, when you scratch this paint off (as Biden tried to do), there's nothing below but unrestrained imperialism and commitment to endless warfare. The "smysloviki" (the shady people pulling Putin's strings and charting Russia's future) really are thinking 10-20 years ahead, and are counting - probably correctly - on our side having a short attention span and being easily lied to.

There's a joke in Russia:
- Which countries does Russia border?
- Whichever ones it wants.
- Okay, so which countries does Russia want to border?
- None.
 
Socom7 said:
PR/propaganda points. Russia has invested great resources into making itself look like the peacemaker ("we want peace, it's the evil NATO warmongers who want to continue the war; they really should stop"). The intended audience includes western societies who will then vote in elections. It's working, too; as you can see - even in these forums people uncritically parrot the official Kremlin line and claim "look, Russia wants to end the war!" Problem is, when you scratch this paint off (as Biden tried to do), there's nothing below but unrestrained imperialism and commitment to endless warfare. The "smysloviki" (the shady people pulling Putin's strings and charting Russia's future) really are thinking 10-20 years ahead, and are counting - probably correctly - on our side having a short attention span and being easily lied to.

There's a joke in Russia:
- Which countries does Russia border?
- Whichever ones it wants.
- Okay, so which countries does Russia want to border?
- None.
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Satiating Russian propaganda arguments seems like a plausible explanation for their continued hollow offers of negotiation.

But if Russia is really taking the losses they are taking in Ukraine that is being widely reported, can Russia really sustain this conflict for much longer before they are too weak to deal with other contingencies (whatever they might be) ? I think there is merit in the argument that hints and references to negotiations suggests that they want to end the conflict. And I think military sustainability issues are the driver for that, and the propaganda argument is really only useful to the Russian electorate (having no meaning to anybody but Russian allies and friends).
 
teekay99 said:
Satiating Russian propaganda arguments seems like a plausible explanation for their continued hollow offers of negotiation.

But if Russia is really taking the losses they are taking in Ukraine that is being widely reported, can Russia really sustain this conflict for much longer before they are too weak to deal with other contingencies (whatever they might be) ? I think there is merit in the argument that hints and references to negotiations suggests that they want to end the conflict. And I think military sustainability issues are the driver for that, and the propaganda argument is really only useful to the Russian electorate (having no meaning to anybody but Russian allies and friends).
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You raise a valid point, but the obvious disconnect between Russia's stated goals and its current military capacity has not affected the former; at least not yet. Freezing the conflict along the existing line of contact would be interpreted as a defeat for Putin. And as they say - Russians will forgive their leaders anything except military defeat. Putin and his entourage know that. They have a tiger by the tail, and there's no choice but to hang on. You can see that in Shoigu's - probably honest - reply.

Russia can probably sustain this level of warfare - particularly if it obtains arms shipments from North Korea - at least until the US election, and possibly longer. It is, after all, a vast country, with a population over 3 times larger than Ukraine's, and all natural resources you could ever imagine. It can afford to play the long game. Can Ukraine? Or for that matter - can the West?

And by the way; you'd be surprised how effective Russian propaganda is outside of Russia. This is certainly money well spent for Putin.
 
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Socom7 said:
It is, after all, a vast country, with a population over 3 times larger than Ukraine's, and all natural resources you could ever imagine.
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True. Russia has a greater degree of resources than Ukraine in terms of man power and natural resources. But with sanctions in place and their historical propensity for corruption, I am not sure they could effectively extract those natural resources as effectively as they would need to keep up with the West.

Socom7 said:
It can afford to play the long game.
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Maybe. But the longer Russia plays the "long game" and their military personnel and weaponry are destroyed and reduced, they will be in a weakened state to the point where they may not be able to sustain a challenge from somewhere else while dealing with Ukraine. I don't know what that somewhere else might be, but I would have to think their leadership would not want to eliminate or weaken that capability.
Socom7 said:
Can Ukraine? Or for that matter - can the West?
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Ukraine - no. Not alone. Can the West - yes. The west can probably outlast Russia in terms of manufacturing having a stronger and larger aggregate economy.
If we are talking solely about manpower, yes, time is on Russia's side since they have a larger population and since the West has not sent in troops (for obvious reasons). But that man power means little if they have no weaponry to use because the Russian economy cannot keep up.
 
teekay99 said:
. But with sanctions in place and their historical propensity for corruption,
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However, even the corrupt must come to realize that the possibility of military defeat will lead to their ultimate demise. So I believe that “Extreme” corruption could be put aside, not for the sake of the Motherland, but for self preservation.
 
teekay99 said:
Ukraine - no. Not alone. Can the West - yes. The west can probably outlast Russia in terms of manufacturing having a stronger and larger aggregate economy.
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It could, but it's not doing much in this regard. There's so much buck-passing going on that even John Mearsheimer would be proud. The West really needs to gear up for war right now, but try and sell that to the electorate... 🙄
 
Irag8er said:
However, even the corrupt must come to realize that the possibility of military defeat will lead to their ultimate demise. So I believe that “Extreme” corruption could be put aside, not for the sake of the Motherland, but for self preservation.
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Oh I agree. They will give it a go if it comes down to that. However, I do not think that will happen by choice of the "corrupt", but rather through coercion by Russian authorities. I see risk of a return of some kind of central planning since that is what they know (given their history as the USSR). And we saw how well centralized planning worked for them through 1991.
 
Socom7 said:
It could, but it's not doing much in this regard. There's so much buck-passing going on that even John Mearsheimer would be proud. The West really needs to gear up for war right now, but try and sell that to the electorate... 🙄
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We're just one highly-visible, infamous event away from awakening the sleeping giant....
 
Totality 🌻 said:
Russian authorities will now be able to send deaf, oligophrenic, limbless, schizophrenic, and diseased people to the front line.

Yesterday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu approved a list of diseases with which citizens will not be able to serve under contract during mobilization, martial law and wartime. The list consists of 26 points, including HIV, hepatitis B and C, diabetes mellitus, all forms of active tuberculosis, drug addiction, lack of limbs or a kidney.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1702423279221317634

Putin🤡 the master strategist. 🤡🙄🤣
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,Putin🤡 the master strategist.

Yes but Biden is the Master of Disaster and Demenz! 🤣
 
Interesting from the Russian general and MP Gurulev who took it to Telegram to say that Ukrainians have changed tactics, that they effectively combat minefields, that their drones are endless, and that the Russian counter-battery fire is still ineffective. We've actually heard these things many times before but it is curious to hear this from a top-level official who decided to share this over 3 months after the start of the CO, indicating that things are worsening.

 
LongliveRussia! said:
,Putin🤡 the master strategist.

Yes but Biden is the Master of Disaster and Demenz! 🤣
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Are you challenging the accuracy of the report? Or are you supporting the decision of the Russian government to send infirmed and disabled citizens to the front line?
 
LongliveRussia! said:
I support the right Side and Peace negotiations. And the end of the killing. P.S. USA are not the right Side. Understood everything? If not, no matter.
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Except NATO is not sending the weak, infirmed, or the disabled to any front line to do any fighting.... Russia is. Does this seem "right" ?
 
LongliveRussia! said:
I support the right Side and Peace negotiations. And the end of the killing. P.S. USA are not the right Side. Understood everything? If not, no matter.
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Russia could leave Ukraine and the war would end tomorrow. Why is that not an option?
 
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