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UA-RU-NATO | DISCUSSIONS

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uamcplyr said:
Depends though doesn't it. If it is real behind-closed-doors diplomacy. Trying to find a better source with less opinion but the only ones I can see don't look nearly as reputable.
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The only semi-new part is that Russia demands that Ukraine give up territories Russia has captured. The rest (no NATO, no EU) is old news.

Ukraine, for its part, told Russia to pound sand. No negotiation as long as Russian troops are in Ukraine.
 
The Russian casualties (Nato not UA est) of well over 200,000 is simply unsustainable by Russia in a war of choice. Ukraine, with a smaller population, can sustain their lose rates for a very long time as they have a choice to fight or cease to exist. I still amazed at the pre-War hubris of Putin. He put his opponent up against a war and said “ stand still why don’t you” whilst we machine Gun you. I think this could end with ALL territory back in Ukraine hands and a Russian enclave around Sevastopol aka Gitmo
I have heard Hong Kong and 99 year leases for Crimea thrown out there, but does anyone expect the Russians to keep their word?

{The US returned the Canal Zone and (unbelievably to me) the British returned Hong Kong in 1999 (I really thought they would fight) KUDOS to the UK}
 
Torcher said:
The Russian casualties (Nato not UA est) of well over 200,000 is simply unsustainable by Russia in a war of choice. Ukraine, with a smaller population, can sustain their lose rates for a very long time as they have a choice to fight or cease to exist. I still amazed at the pre-War hubris of Putin. He put his opponent up against a war and said “ stand still why don’t you” whilst we machine Gun you. I think this could end with ALL territory back in Ukraine hands and a Russian enclave around Sevastopol aka Gitmo
I have heard Hong Kong and 99 year leases for Crimea thrown out there, but does anyone expect the Russians to keep their word?

{The US returned the Canal Zone and (unbelievably to me) the British returned Hong Kong in 1999 (I really thought they would fight) KUDOS to the UK}
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Please explain the smaller population lasting longer? Half of Ukrainian population is in Poland and the rest of Europe. Not only avoiding risk to mothers and young children.
Ukraine basically already started conscription which is still optional for Russia. I mean everything conflicts in reports about loses in bakhmut even solely looking at western reports alone. Way to much optional attention created to be sure about. One thing for sure is Ukrainian military support from the West is obviously being hammered as much as Russia's. Anyway remember Putin feels the same in trust factors as both sides in many conflicts tend to stray before and during conflicts.
 
Yingyang said:
Please explain the smaller population lasting longer?
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Its simple. The Russian don’t have to endure those casualties. The casualties can end the second Russia decide to quit. Russians are not stupid. They know this.

The Ukraines must endure any casualties or cease to exist. With the Russians legacy of rape and murder enduring a occupation isn't just humiliating, its deadly. The charming organized theft of children is a clear red line. One would think the Russians would wait until after they win to do something so diabolically evil.
 
Torcher said:
The Ukraines must endure any casualties or cease to exist.
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Ukraine can endure only so many casualties. They aren't fighting to the last man.

Russia, on the other hand, has to deal with a public that doesn't want the war.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Ukraine can endure only so many casualties. They aren't fighting to the last man.

Russia, on the other hand, has to deal with a public that doesn't want the war.
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Each position will publicly harden with time but their willingness to compromise will increase. Personally I think Russia should only get one thing from this treacherous behavior: The Bill. Billions in reparations. Perhaps they would sell some land to UA. Probably not, but the US and Japan could pickup an island or two to give the Russians some unrealized gains. Im sure China would like some land somewhere….
 
Erecon said:

Lukashenko offers nuclear weapons to nations willing ‘to join the Union State of Russia and Belarus’​


edition.cnn.com

Lukashenko offers nuclear weapons to nations willing 'to join the Union State of Russia and Belarus' | CNN

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has claimed that nations who are willing “to join the Union State of Russia and Belarus” will be given nuclear weapons, days after confirming the transfer of some tactical nuclear weapons from Moscow to Minsk had begun.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com
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1685351291054.png
You get a nuke, and you get a nuke!

What is this, the Oprah Winfrey show?!
It's quite an alarming statement coming from them. Shows how desperate they are for allies.
Certainly puts non-proliferation back a few steps.
 
From the REPORTS thread

Erecon said:

Lukashenko offers nuclear weapons to nations willing ‘to join the Union State of Russia and Belarus’​


edition.cnn.com

Lukashenko offers nuclear weapons to nations willing 'to join the Union State of Russia and Belarus' | CNN

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has claimed that nations who are willing “to join the Union State of Russia and Belarus” will be given nuclear weapons, days after confirming the transfer of some tactical nuclear weapons from Moscow to Minsk had begun.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com
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This is a 5-day-old story by now isn't it? Not criticising btw, just curious why CNN is going at this so late.
 
uamcplyr said:
From the REPORTS thread



This is a 5-day-old story by now isn't it? Not criticising btw, just curious why CNN is going at this so late.
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Yeah MSM can take a while to pick up on stories. We've all gotten comfortable with the speed of twitter news.
 
It's all hot air though. It's as if he (Lukashenko) has realised his own mortality and is desperately trying to become relevant.
 
Just another vaporous threat leveled at the west.
Scaring them with random threats of tactical nukes or vaporizing London haven’t seemed to work.
So now we’ll try nuclear proliferation with all those pesky third world countries.
What difference does it make. It’s exactly what they did with DPRK already.
Yawn……
 
Yingyang said:
Half of Ukrainian population is in Poland and the rest of Europe.
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No it's not. Approximately 8 million Ukrainians fled the country after war broke out (source: UN High Commissioner for Human Rights). That's around 20% of the pre-war Ukrainian population, and it includes people forcibly relocated to Russia by the occupiers (~1 million by various estimates). You're spreading misinformation.
Yingyang said:
Ukraine basically already started conscription which is still optional for Russia.
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Russia has "mobilized" (i.e. forcibly pressed into military service) several hundred thousand of its own citizens after Putin issued the mobilization decree on 21 September 2022 in the wake of multiple defeats suffered by his "professional" army in Ukraine. That decree remains in effect and military analysts generally agree that covert mobilization is ongoing in Russia.

In general, Russia has had conscription laws in place since forever. Please do not spread misinformation. :rolleyes:
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
I don't think Belarus has the authority to do that. Those are Russian nukes. They don't actually "belong" to Belarus.
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Whatever it is, it’s a powerful statement that might bring some nations to the table for talks. Talks that otherwise might not have happened. Perhaps even some nations that hate America might throw in. This statement alarms me more than most.
 
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